Report
Joel Litman ...
  • Rob Spivey

Valens Research US Market Phase Cycle Monitor & Corporate Credit Macro View - November 2017

Equity market expectations are currently not aggressive – pricing in continued modest growth with steady ROA' improvement. If corporations continue to deliver the strong adjusted earnings growth they've delivered this year, there is substantial fundamental upside going forward. Investor sentiment has fallen from overly bullish levels to very conservative levels in the past 3 months. Investors are positioned for a pullback, making it less likely to happen. As highlighted in prior letters, the markets tend to be strong into year end. Fundamentals and valuations currently justify upside, and investors are not positioned for that upside, even after a strong run this year. Santa Claus gave investors an early gift with a 4% run since early September, but the real Christmas present appears to still be on the way.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

Analysts
Joel Litman

Rob Spivey

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