Equity market expectations are currently not aggressive – pricing in continued modest growth with steady ROA' improvement. If corporations continue to deliver the strong adjusted earnings growth they've delivered this year, there is substantial fundamental upside going forward. Investor sentiment has fallen from overly bullish levels to very conservative levels in the past 3 months. Investors are positioned for a pullback, making it less likely to happen. As highlighted in prior letters, the markets tend to be strong into year end. Fundamentals and valuations currently justify upside, and investors are not positioned for that upside, even after a strong run this year. Santa Claus gave investors an early gift with a 4% run since early September, but the real Christmas present appears to still be on the way.
In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:
We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.
The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.
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