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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2020 08 04

CSGP currently trades well above corporate averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 90.0x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to grow considerably from 44% in 2019 to 113% through 2024, accompanied by 14% Uniform asset growth going forward. Analysts have more bearish expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to fall to 40% in 2021, accompanied by 2% Uniform asset growth. Furthermore, management appears concerned about Apartments.com, LoopNet, and growth. Current valuations appear to be pricing in overly bullish expectations for CSGP, and if the company is not able to double profitability levels in the next five years, material downside may be warranted.

PEP Q1 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for record-high Uniform ROA, but management may be concerned about their business opportunities, brands, and logistics

RAD Q1 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA expansion, but management may be concerned about growth, their rebranding and coronavirus

KSU Q2 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for improvements in Uniform ROA, but management may be concerned about profitability, their operating model, and Mexican operations

CSGP, KSU, PEP, RAD, ACN, ANTM, CMCS.A, HAS, HCA, HGV, HIW, IOSP, MMM, MSFT, NFLX, TJX, TMUS, TWLO, TWTR, XOM
Underlyings
3M COMPANY

3M is a technology company. The company has four segments: Safety and Industrial, which consists of personal safety, industrial adhesives and tapes, abrasives, closure and masking systems, electrical markets, automotive aftermarket, and roofing granules; Transportation and Electronics, which consists of electronics, automotive and aerospace, commercial solutions, advanced materials, and transportation safety; Health Care, which includes medical solutions, oral care, separation and purification sciences, health information systems, drug delivery systems, and food safety; and Consumer, which consists of home improvement, stationery and office supplies, home care, and consumer health care.

Accenture Plc Class A

Anthem Inc.

Anthem is an insurance holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a health benefits company, serving medical members through its affiliated health plans. The company has three segments: Commercial & Specialty Business, which provides fully-insured health products, managed care services to self-funded customers, and other insurance products and services; Government Business, which includes Medicare and Medicaid businesses, its subsidiary, National Government Services, and services provided to the federal government in connection with its Federal Health Products and Services business; and Other, which includes pharmacy benefits management business and integrated health services business.

Comcast Corporation Class A

Comcast is a media and technology company. The company's segments are: Cable Communications, which provides internet, video, voice, and security and automation services in the United States individually and as bundled services at a discounted rate over its cable distribution system to residential and business customers; NBCUniversal, which includes a portfolio of national cable networks that provide a variety of entertainment, news and information, and sports content, regional sports and news networks, international cable networks, and cable television studio production operations; and Sky, which owns a portfolio of pay television channels that provide entertainment, news, sports and movies.

COSTAR GROUP INC

CoStar Group provides information, analytics and online marketplace services to the commercial real estate and related business community through its database of commercial real estate information covering the U.S., the U.K., and parts of Canada, Spain, Germany and France. The company provides online marketplaces for commercial real estate, apartment rentals, lands for sale and businesses for sale. The company operates within two operating segments, North America and International, and its services are distributed to its clients under subscription-based license agreements that renew automatically, a majority of which have a term of one year.

Exxon Mobil Corporation

Exxon Mobil operates or markets products in United States and other countries through its divisions and affiliated companies. The company's business involves exploration for, and production of, crude oil and natural gas and manufacture, trade, transport and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals and other products. In United States, the company's development activities are focused on the onshore United States, in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico and the Bakken oil play in North Dakota. Gas development activities are also focused on the Marcellus Shale of Pennsylvania and West Virginia, the Utica Shale of Ohio and the Haynesville Shale of East Texas and Louisiana.

Hasbro Inc.

Hasbro is a global play and entertainment company. The company's segments are: United States and Canada, which includes the marketing and selling of action figures, electronic toys and related electronic interactive products, among others, primarily within the United States and Canada; International, which markets and sells both toy and game products primarily in the European, Asia Pacific, and Latin and South American regions; Entertainment, Licensing and Digital, which includes consumer products licensing, digital gaming, movie and television entertainment operations; and Global Operations, which sources finished products for the company's United States and Canada and International segments.

HCA Healthcare Inc

HCA Healthcare is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, partnerships and joint ventures, the company owns and operates hospitals and related health care entities. Most of the company's general, acute care hospitals provide medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic services and emergency services. The general, acute care hospitals also provide outpatient services such as outpatient surgery, laboratory, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology and physical therapy. The company's psychiatric hospitals provide therapeutic programs including child, adolescent and adult psychiatric care, adolescent and adult alcohol and drug abuse treatment and counseling.

Highwoods Properties Inc.

Highwoods Properties is a real estate investment trust. The company owns, develops, acquires, leases and manages properties primarily in the business districts of Atlanta, Charlotte, Nashville, Orlando, Pittsburgh, Raleigh, Richmond and Tampa. The company's primary business is the operation, acquisition and development of office properties. The company conducts its activities through its subsidiary, Highwoods Realty Limited Partnership. The company provides a line of real estate services to its customers. The company provides its customers with services such as build-to-suit construction and space modification, including tenant improvements and expansions.

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.

Hilton Grand Vacations is a timeshare company engaged in developing, marketing, selling and managing timeshare resorts under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand. The company's operations mainly consist of: selling vacation ownership intervals for it and third parties; financing and servicing loans provided to consumers for their timeshare purchases; operating resorts; and managing its points-based Hilton Grand Vacations Club and Hilton Club exchange program. The company has properties located in vacation destinations such as the Orlando, Las Vegas, Hawaiian Islands, New York City, Washington D.C. and South Carolina. The company's segments are: real estate sales and financing and resort operations and club management.

Innospec Inc.

Innospec develops, manufactures, blends, markets and supplies chemicals for use as fuel additives, and ingredients for personal care, home care, agrochemical, mining and other applications and oilfield chemicals. The company has four segments: Fuel Specialties, which develops, manufactures, blends, markets and supplies a range of chemical products; Performance Chemicals, which provides products focused on the personal care, home care, agrochemical and mining markets; Oilfield Services, which develops and markets products to prevent loss of mud in drilling operations, and chemical solutions; and Octane Additives, which comprises sales of tetra ethyl lead for use in automotive gasoline.

Kansas City Southern

Kansas City Southern is a transportation holding company with domestic and international rail operations in North America. The company's subsidiary, The Kansas City Southern Railway Company, is a United States Class I railroad that serves a several region in the midwest and southeast regions of United States and has north/south rail route between Kansas City, MO and several main ports along the Gulf of Mexico in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas. The company's subsidiary, Kansas City Southern de Mexico, S.A. de C.V. operates a main commercial corridor of the Mexican railroad system and has as its main route a direct rail passageway between Mexico City and Laredo, TX.

Microsoft Corporation

Microsoft is a technology company. The company develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions. The company provides an array of services, including cloud-based solutions as well as solution support and consulting services. The company also delivers relevant online advertising. The company's products include operating systems; cross-device productivity applications; server applications; business solution applications; desktop and server management tools; software development tools; and video games. The company also designs, manufactures, and sells devices, including personal computers, tablets, gaming and entertainment consoles, other devices, and related accessories.

Netflix Inc.

Netflix is engaged in subscription streaming entertainment service including TV series, documentaries and feature films across a variety of genres and languages. Members can watch as much as they want, anytime, anywhere, on any internet-connected screen. Members can play, pause and resume watching, without commercials. Additionally, several members in the United States subscribe to the company's DVD-by-mail service. The company improves its streaming content with a focus on a programming mix of content. The company's members can download a selection of titles for offline viewing. The company operates its business as a global operating segment.

PepsiCo Inc.

PepsiCo is a food and beverage company. The company's segments include: Frito-Lay North America, which includes food and snack businesses in the United States and Canada; Quaker Foods North America, which includes cereal, rice, pasta and other food businesses in the United States and Canada; PepsiCo Beverages North America, which includes beverage businesses in the United States and Canada; Latin America, which includes beverage, food and snack businesses in Latin America; Europe, which includes beverage, food and snack businesses in Europe; and Africa, Middle East and South Asia, which includes beverage, food and snack businesses in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia.

Rite Aid Corporation

Rite Aid is a pharmacy retail healthcare company. The company's Retail Pharmacy segment sells brand and generic prescription drugs, as well as an assortment of front-end products including health and beauty aids, personal care products, seasonal merchandise, and a private brand product line. The company's Pharmacy Services segment provides pharmacy benefit management (PBM) options through its EnvisionRxOptions and MedTrak PBMs, respectively. EnvisionRxOptions also provides mail-order and specialty pharmacy services through EnvisionPharmacies; a claims adjudication software platform in Laker Software; and a national Medicare Part D prescription drug plan through its EnvisionRx Plus product offering.

T-Mobile US Inc.

T-Mobile US provides mobile communications services, including voice, messaging and data, under its brands, T-Mobile and Metro? by T-Mobile, in the United States, Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands. The company provides mobile communications services using its 4G Long-Term Evolution network and its 5G technology network. The company also provides various wireless devices, including handsets, tablets and other mobile communication devices, and accessories for sale, as well as financing through Equipment Installment Plans and leasing through JUMP! On Demand?. The company provides reinsurance for handset insurance policies and extended warranty contracts offered to its mobile communications customers.

TJX Companies Inc

TJX Companies is an off-price apparel and home fashions retailer. The company's segments comprised of: Marmaxx, which sells family apparel (including footwear and accessories), home fashions (including home basics, decorative accessories and giftware) and other merchandise; HomeGoods, which provides a range of home fashions, including home fashions, including furniture, rugs, lighting, soft home, decorative accessories, tabletop and cookware as well as pet, kids and gourmet food departments; TJX Canada, which operates the Winners, HomeSense and Marshalls chains in Canada; and TJX International, which operates the T.K. Maxx and HomeSense chains in Europe and the T.K. Maxx chain in Australia.

Twilio Inc. Class A

Twilio provides a cloud communications platform that enables developers to build, scale and operate communications within their software applications via the company's Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). The company's platform consists of three layers: Engagement Cloud, which provides functionality for a specific purpose, such as two-factor authentication or a contact center; Programmable Communications Cloud, which provides a range of products that enables developers to embed voice, messaging and video capabilities into their applications; and Super Network, which contains a set of API's giving the company's customers access to components of its platform.

Twitter Inc.

Twitter provides products and services for people, organizations, advertisers, developers and platform and data partners. The company's product, Twitter, is a global platform for public self-expression and conversation in real time. The company's mobile application, Periscope, lets anyone broadcast and watch video live with others. The company's products and services for advertisers include Promoted Products such as Promoted Tweets, Promoted Accounts, and Promoted Trends. The company's products for developers and data partners provide tools and public application programming interfaces to build applications and other products that utilize Twitter data and syndicate and distribute Twitter content across their properties.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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