Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2021 02 02

Current market expectations for Ford misunderstand where the company is in the auto cycle. Markets expect UAFRS-based (Uniform) ROA (ROA') to never recover to the 2010-2019 mid-cycle profitability levels that are warranted, or even pessimistic considering the company's business strategy.

Thanks to the At-Home Revolution, Ford has strong auto cycle tailwinds for the first time in five years. In addition, the company's smart strategy in the commercial market to invest in selling services, and how its electric vehicle (EV) investments can be under-written by that segment, combined with driving overall fundamental acceleration for the company, points to reasons to think returns can improve from prior cycle levels, not remain lower going forward.

With the recent management change, and management's strong focus on ROIC improvement based on their compensation, management is correctly aligned to execute on a strategy to create more value than the market is recognizing Ford can create.

Moreover, management's recent earnings calls highlight they are confident about their vehicle sales trends, the strength of their credit arm, and the potential acceleration for the business from both services and EV sales.

Considering low market expectations for Uniform ROA recovery, management's smart strategy and strong alignment, and confidence about accelerating fundamental momentum, current low equity valuations appear unreasonable, spelling potential for equity upside for Ford.

HAS Q3 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to fade, but management is confident about their European business, sales, and storytelling

LCII Q3 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for continued Uniform ROA declines, but management is confident about their market share, performance, and demand

TWTR Q3 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to improve, but management may be concerned about advertisers, their userbase, and Topics

F, HAS, LCII, TWTR, ADS, DAN, DG, EL, FOXF, HGV, HUBB, INTC, KAR, MMM, MSM, MTOR, PINS, PTON, SABR, UDR, X
Underlyings
3M COMPANY

3M is a technology company. The company has four segments: Safety and Industrial, which consists of personal safety, industrial adhesives and tapes, abrasives, closure and masking systems, electrical markets, automotive aftermarket, and roofing granules; Transportation and Electronics, which consists of electronics, automotive and aerospace, commercial solutions, advanced materials, and transportation safety; Health Care, which includes medical solutions, oral care, separation and purification sciences, health information systems, drug delivery systems, and food safety; and Consumer, which consists of home improvement, stationery and office supplies, home care, and consumer health care.

Alliance Data Systems Corporation

Alliance Data Systems is a provider of data-driven marketing and loyalty solutions. The company operates in two segments: LoyaltyOne? and Card Services. LoyaltyOne provides coalition and short-term loyalty programs through the Canadian AIR MILES? Reward Program and BrandLoyalty Group B.V. Card Services encompasses credit card processing, billing and payment processing, customer care and collections services for private label retailers as well as private label and co-brand retail credit card and loan receivables financing, including securitization and other funding of certain credit card and loan receivables that it underwrites from its private label and co-brand retail credit card programs.

Dana Incorporated

Dana is engaged in providing power-conveyance and energy-management solutions for vehicles and machinery. The company's operating segments are: Light Vehicle Drive Systems, which include light trucks (full frame), sport utility vehicles, crossover utility vehicles, vans, and passenger cars; Commercial Vehicle Drive and Motion Systems, which include medium duty trucks, heavy duty trucks, buses, and specialty vehicles; Off-Highway Drive and Motion Systems, which iinclude construction, earth moving, agricultural, mining, forestry, material handling, and industrial stationary; and Power Technologies, which include medium/heavy vehicle market, and off-highway market.

Dollar General Corporation

Dollar General is a discount retailer. The company's consumables products includes paper and cleaning products, packaged food, perishables, snacks, health and beauty, pet, and tobacco products. The company's seasonal products include decorations, toys, batteries, small electronics, greeting cards, stationery, prepaid phones and accessories, gardening supplies, hardware, automotive and home office supplies. The company's home products include kitchen supplies, cookware, small appliances, light bulbs, storage containers, frames, candles, craft supplies and kitchen, bed and bath soft goods. The company's apparel includes casual everyday apparel, as well as socks, underwear, disposable diapers, shoes and accessories.

Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A

Estee Lauder Companies is a manufacturer and marketer of skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care products. The company's products are sold under a number of brand names including: Estee Lauder, Clinique, Origins, MzAzC, Bobbi Brown, La Mer, Jo Malone London, Aveda and Too Faced. The company is also the global licensee for fragrances, cosmetics and/or related products sold under various designer brand names. The company's products include skin care, makeup and related items such as compacts, brushes and other makeup tools, fragrance sold in various forms, hair care, and other ancillary products and services.

Ford Motor Company

Ford Motor designs, manufactures, markets, and services a line of Ford cars, trucks, sport utility vehicles, electrified vehicles, and Lincoln vehicles, as well as provides financial services through its subsidiary, Ford Motor Credit Company LLC. The company is engaged in electrification; mobility solutions, including self-driving services; and connected vehicle services. The company has three operating segments: Automotive, which includes the sale of Ford and Lincoln vehicles, service parts, and accessories; Mobility, which includes its autonomous vehicles and its investment in mobility through Ford Smart Mobility LLC; and Ford Credit, which includes vehicle-related financing and leasing activities.

Fox Factory Holding Corp.

Fox Factory Holding is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of products and systems used on bicycles, side-by-side vehicles, on-road vehicles with and without off-road capabilities, off-road vehicles and trucks, all-terrain vehicles, snowmobiles, specialty vehicles and applications, motorcycles, and commercial trucks. In its powered vehicle product categories, the company provides products under the FOX, BDS Suspension, Zone Offroad, JKS Manufacturing, RT Pro UTV, 4x4 Posi-Lok, and Tuscany brands. The company's bike product offerings are used on a range of mountain bikes and road bikes under the FOX, Race Face, Easton Cycling and Marzocchi brands.

Hasbro Inc.

Hasbro is a global play and entertainment company. The company's segments are: United States and Canada, which includes the marketing and selling of action figures, electronic toys and related electronic interactive products, among others, primarily within the United States and Canada; International, which markets and sells both toy and game products primarily in the European, Asia Pacific, and Latin and South American regions; Entertainment, Licensing and Digital, which includes consumer products licensing, digital gaming, movie and television entertainment operations; and Global Operations, which sources finished products for the company's United States and Canada and International segments.

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.

Hilton Grand Vacations is a timeshare company engaged in developing, marketing, selling and managing timeshare resorts under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand. The company's operations mainly consist of: selling vacation ownership intervals for it and third parties; financing and servicing loans provided to consumers for their timeshare purchases; operating resorts; and managing its points-based Hilton Grand Vacations Club and Hilton Club exchange program. The company has properties located in vacation destinations such as the Orlando, Las Vegas, Hawaiian Islands, New York City, Washington D.C. and South Carolina. The company's segments are: real estate sales and financing and resort operations and club management.

Hubbell Incorporated Class B

Hubbell is primarily engaged in the design, manufacture and sale of electrical and electronic products for a range of non-residential and residential construction, industrial and utility applications. The company has two segments: Electrical, which comprised of businesses that sell stock and custom products including application wiring device products, electrical products, connector and grounding products, lighting fixtures and controls, components and assemblies, as well as other electrical equipment; and Power, which consists of operations for the design, manufacture and sale of transmission and distribution components primarily for the electrical utilities industry.

Intel Corporation

Intel is a data-centric company. The company's operating segments are: Data Center Group, which develops platforms for compute, storage, and network functions; Internet of Things Group, which facilitates its customers creating, storing, and processing data; Mobileye, which provides assistance and automation solutions; Non-Volatile Memory Solutions Group, which provides memory and storage products based on Intel? Optane? technology and Intel? 3D NAND technology; Programmable Solutions Group, which provides programmable semiconductors; and Client Computing Group, which connects people to data, allowing each person to focus, create, and engage in ways that unlock their individual potential.

KAR Auction Services Inc.

KAR Auction Services is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides used vehicle auctions and related vehicle remarketing services in North America and Europe. The company facilitates a marketplace by providing auction services for sellers of used, or whole car, vehicles through its North American physical auction locations. The company's segments include: ADESA, Inc.'s Auctions, which provides whole car auctions and related services to the vehicle remarketing industry in North America through online auctions and auction facilities; and Automotive Finance Corporation, which provides floorplan financing to independent used vehicle dealers through branches throughout North America.

LCI Industries

LCI Industries supplies an array of components for the original equipment manufacturers in the recreation and industrial product markets, consisting of recreational vehicles and adjacent industries including buses; trailers used to haul boats, livestock, equipment and other cargo; trucks; boats; trains; manufactured homes; and modular housing. The company also supplies components to the related aftermarkets of these industries, primarily by selling to retail dealers, wholesale distributors and service centers. The company's products include steel chassis and related components, axles and suspension solutions, slide-out mechanisms and solutions, and thermoformed bath, kitchen and other products.

Meritor Inc.

Meritor is a global supplier of a range of integrated systems, modules and components to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and the aftermarket for the commercial vehicle, transportation and industrial sectors. The company serves commercial truck, trailer, military, bus and coach, construction, and other industrial OEMs and certain aftermarkets. The company's segments are: Commercial Truck, which supplies drivetrain systems and components, including axles, drivelines and braking and suspension systems; and Aftermarket, Industrial and Trailer, which supplies axles, brakes, drivelines, suspension parts and other replacement parts to commercial vehicle and industrial aftermarket customers.

MSC Industrial Direct Co. Inc. Class A

MSC Industrial Direct Co. is a distributor of metalworking and maintenance, repair and operations (MRO) products and services. The company provides stock-keeping units through its eCommerce channels, including its website, mscdirect.com; its inventory management solutions; catalogs and brochures; and call-centers and branches. The company's range of MRO products includes cutting tools, measuring instruments, tooling components, metalworking products, fasteners, flat stock, raw materials, abrasives, machinery hand and power tools, safety and janitorial supplies, plumbing supplies, materials handling products, power transmission components, and electrical supplies.

Peloton Interactive Inc. Class A

Pinterest Inc. Class A

Sabre Corp.

Sabre is a technology solutions provider to the travel and tourism industry. The company operates through three business segments: Travel Network, which consists primarily of its global distribution system (GDS) and a range of solutions that integrate with its GDS; Airline Solutions, which provides a portfolio of software technology products and solutions, through software-as-a-service (SaaS) and hosted delivery model, to airlines and other travel suppliers and provides software solutions; and Hospitality Solutions, which provides software and solutions, through SaaS and hosted delivery model, to hoteliers around the world.

Twitter Inc.

Twitter provides products and services for people, organizations, advertisers, developers and platform and data partners. The company's product, Twitter, is a global platform for public self-expression and conversation in real time. The company's mobile application, Periscope, lets anyone broadcast and watch video live with others. The company's products and services for advertisers include Promoted Products such as Promoted Tweets, Promoted Accounts, and Promoted Trends. The company's products for developers and data partners provide tools and public application programming interfaces to build applications and other products that utilize Twitter data and syndicate and distribute Twitter content across their properties.

UDR Inc.

UDR is a real estate investment trust that owns, operates, acquires, renovates, develops, redevelops, disposes of, and manages multifamily apartment communities generally located in markets located throughout the United States. In addition, the company has an ownership interest in completed or to-be-completed apartment homes through unconsolidated joint ventures or partnerships, including apartment homes owned by entities in which the company hold preferred equity investments. The company's operating partnership, United Dominion Realty, L.P., has a consolidated real estate portfolio that includes communities located in several markets.

United States Steel Corporation

United States Steel is a steel producer of flat-rolled and tubular products with production operations in the United States and Europe. The company is also engaged in railroad services and real estate operations. The company's segments are: North American Flat-Rolled, which produces slabs, strip mill plates, sheets and tin mill products; U. S. Steel Europe, which produces and sells slabs, strip mill plate, sheet, tin mill products and spiral welded pipe, as well as heating radiators and refractory ceramic materials; and Tubular Products, which produces and sells electric resistance welded steel casing and tubing (known as oil country tubular goods), and standard and line pipe and mechanical tubing.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

Analysts
Valens Research

Other Reports on these Companies
Other Reports from Valens Research

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch