Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2018 05 23

MELI currently trades near historical highs relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 117.3x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to rebound from 26% in 2016 to 61% in 2021, accompanied by 19% Uniform Asset growth going forward. However, analysts have bearish expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to decline 15% through 2018, accompanied by 9% Uniform Asset growth. Moreover, Valens' qualitative analysis of the firm's Q1 2018 earnings call highlights that management has concerns about their growth and expenses. At current valuations, markets are pricing in a near-best-case scenario for MELI, and considering management concerns about their outlook, any negative surprise could lead to material equity downside.

BOX Q4 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for a positive inflection in Uniform ROA, and management is confident about competition, the Box Platform, and growth

MCD Q1 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for record-high Uniform ROA, and management is confident about their initiatives, international operations, and comps

VOW3:DEU Q1 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to remain muted, and management has concerns about operating profit, WLTP, and pricing

ABBV, ABC, ABI:BEL, ABT, BBY, CAT, DAL, ETSY, FOXF, FP:FRA, GME, GRMN, MRK, TXN, UHS, ULVR:GBR, WIX
Underlyings
Abbott Laboratories

Abbott Laboratories is engaged in the discovery, development, manufacture, and sale of a range of health care products. The company's reportable segments are: established pharmaceutical products, which includes a range of generic pharmaceuticals; diagnostic products, which includes a range of diagnostic systems and tests; nutritional products, which includes a range of pediatric and adult nutritional products; and medical devices, which includes a range of rhythm management, electrophysiology, heart failure, vascular and structural heart devices for the treatment of cardiovascular diseases, and diabetes care products for people with diabetes, as well as neuromodulation devices.

AbbVie Inc.

AbbVie is a research-based biopharmaceutical company. The company's products are focused on treating conditions such as chronic autoimmune diseases in rheumatology, gastroenterology and dermatology; oncology, including blood cancers; virology, including hepatitis C virus and human immunodeficiency virus; neurological disorders, such as Parkinson's disease; metabolic diseases, including thyroid disease and complications associated with cystic fibrosis; pain associated with endometriosis; as well as other serious health conditions. The company also has medicines in clinical development across immunology, oncology and neuroscience, with additional targeted investment in cystic fibrosis and women's health.

AmerisourceBergen Corporation

AmerisourceBergen is a pharmaceutical sourcing and distribution services company. The company's Pharmaceutical Distribution Services reportable segment provides pharmaceutical distribution and additional services to physicians who focus on a variety of disease states, especially oncology, and to other healthcare providers, including hospitals and dialysis clinics. Additionally, this segment provides data analytics, outcomes research, and additional services for biotechnology and pharmaceutical manufacturers. This segment also provides pharmacy management, staffing and additional consulting services, and supply management software to a variety of retail and institutional healthcare providers.

Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV

Anheuser-Busch Inbev is engaged in the brewing of beer. Co. manages a portfolio of well over 200 brands that includes brands such as Budweiser, Stella Artois and Beck's; multi-country brands such as Leffe and Hoegaarden; and other brands such as Bud Light, Skol, Brahma, Quilmes, Michelob, Harbin, Sedrin, Klinskoye, Sibirskaya Korona, Chernigivske and Jupiler. Co. also produces and distributes soft drinks, particularly in Latin America. Co.'s operations are organized along seven business segments: North America, Mexico, Latin America North, Latin America South, Europe, Asia Pacific and Global Export & Holding Companies.

Best Buy Co. Inc.

Best Buy provides computing and mobile phones, consumer electronics, appliances, entertainment, services and other products. The company operates two reportable segments: Domestic, which is comprised of the operations in all states, districts and territories of the U.S. under various brand names including Best Buy, bestbuy.com, Best Buy Direct, Best Buy Express, Best Buy Mobile, Geek Squad, GreatCall, Magnolia and Pacific Kitchen and Home; and International, which is comprised of all operations in Canada and Mexico under the brand names Best Buy, Best Buy Express, Best Buy Mobile, Geek Squad and the domain names bestbuy.ca and bestbuy.com.mx.

Box Inc. Class A

Box provides a cloud content management platform that enables organizations to manage their content. With the company's Software-as-a-Service cloud content management platform, users can collaborate on content internally and with external parties, automate content-driven business processes, develop applications, and implement data protection, security and compliance features to comply with legal and regulatory requirements, internal policies and industry standards and regulations. The company's platform enables a set of business use cases across an enterprise and various file formats and media types. The company also provides offerings that address business needs via technology, services and marketing programs.

Caterpillar Inc.

Caterpillar is a manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines and diesel-electric locomotives. The company segments include: Construction Industries, which supports customers using machinery in infrastructure, forestry and building construction; Resource Industries, which supports customers using machinery in mining, heavy construction, quarry and aggregates, waste and material handling applications; Energy and Transportation, which supports customers in oil and gas, power generation, marine, rail and industrial applications, including Cat? machines; and Financial Products, which provides financing and related services.

Delta Air Lines Inc.

Delta Air Lines provides scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo. The company serves the Transatlantic, Transpacific and Latin America markets directly on the company and through joint ventures with airline partners. Internationally, the company has hubs and market presence in Amsterdam, London-Heathrow, Mexico City, Paris-Charles de Gaulle and Seoul-Incheon. These arrangements are commercial joint ventures that include joint sales and marketing coordination, co-location of airport facilities and other commercial cooperation arrangements. The company has other businesses arising from its airline operations, including providing maintenance and engineering support for its regional aircraft.

Etsy Inc.

Etsy provides sellers a marketplace with buyers along with a range of seller tools and services that are specifically designed to help its creative entrepreneurs generate more sales and scale their businesses. The company's platform includes the Etsy and Reverb Holdings, Inc. (Reverb) online marketplaces, its seller tools and services, its engaged sellers and buyers, and its technology. The company's primary marketplace, Etsy.com, is where buyers come to discover a selection of goods that are hard to find elsewhere. Reverb, the company's subsidiary, operates as a standalone marketplace. This two-sided marketplace connects buyers and sellers of new, used, and vintage musical gear from all over the world.

Fox Factory Holding Corp.

Fox Factory Holding is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of products and systems used on bicycles, side-by-side vehicles, on-road vehicles with and without off-road capabilities, off-road vehicles and trucks, all-terrain vehicles, snowmobiles, specialty vehicles and applications, motorcycles, and commercial trucks. In its powered vehicle product categories, the company provides products under the FOX, BDS Suspension, Zone Offroad, JKS Manufacturing, RT Pro UTV, 4x4 Posi-Lok, and Tuscany brands. The company's bike product offerings are used on a range of mountain bikes and road bikes under the FOX, Race Face, Easton Cycling and Marzocchi brands.

GameStop Corp. Class A

GameStop is a multichannel video game and licensed consumer products retailer. The company's products and services includes: New Video Game Hardware, which provides video game platforms from manufacturers; New Video Game Software, which provides new video game software for existing and certain prior generation consoles from manufacturers, including Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft; Video Game Accessories, which consist primarily of controllers, gaming headsets, virtual reality products, and memory cards; and Digital, which sells a variety of digital currency and has developed technology to sell downloadable content and full-game downloads in its stores and on its U.S. website.

Garmin Ltd.

McDonald's Corporation

McDonald's franchises and operates McDonald's restaurants. The company's menu includes hamburgers and cheeseburgers, Big Mac, Quarter Pounder with Cheese, Filet-O-Fish, several chicken sandwiches, Chicken McNuggets, wraps, fries, shakes, McFlurry desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, pies, soft drinks, coffee, McCafe beverages and other beverages. The company's restaurants in the United States and various international markets provide a full or limited breakfast menu. Breakfast offerings may include Egg McMuffin, Sausage McMuffin with Egg, McGriddles, biscuit and bagel sandwiches and hotcakes. The restaurants also sells a variety of other products during limited-time promotions

MercadoLibre Inc.

MercadoLibre is engages in an online commerce ecosystem. Co.'s platform is designed to provide users with a portfolio of services to facilitate commercial transactions. Co. integrated e-commerce services includes: the MercadoLibre Marketplace, which is an automated, topically-arranged and user-friendly online commerce service; MercadoLibre Classifieds Service, which users can also list and purchase motor vehicles, vessels, aircraft, real estate and services; MercadoPago payments solution, providing a mechanism that allows its users to send and receive payments online; and MercadoLibre advertising program, which enable businesses to promote their products and services on the Internet.

Merck & Co. Inc.

Merck & Co. is a global health care company that delivers health solutions through its prescription medicines, vaccines, biologic therapies and animal health products. The company's segments are: Pharmaceutical, which includes human health pharmaceutical products that consist of therapeutic and preventive agents for the treatment of human disorders, and human health vaccine products that consist of preventive pediatric, adolescent and adult vaccines; and Animal Health, which discovers, develops, manufactures and markets veterinary pharmaceuticals, vaccines and health management solutions and services, as well as a suite of digitally connected identification, traceability and monitoring products.

Texas Instruments Incorporated

Texas Instruments designs and makes semiconductors that it sells to electronics designers and manufacturers. The company has two reportable segments: Analog and Embedded Processing. The company's analog semiconductors change signals, such as sound, temperature, pressure or images to a stream of digital data. The company's analog segment primary product lines includes: power, signal chain, and high volume. The company's embedded processors are designed to handle specific tasks and can be optimized for various combinations of performance, power and cost, depending on the application. The company's embedded processing segment primary product lines includes: connected microcontrollers and processors.

Total SE

Total is an international integrated oil and gas company also active in solar and biomass energy sources. Co. engages all aspects of the petroleum industry, including Upstream operations (oil and gas exploration, development and production, and LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas)) and Downstream operations (refining, petrochemicals, specialty chemicals, marketing and marketing and trading and shipping of crude oil and petroleum products). In addition, Co. is engaged in the coal mining and power generation sectors. Co.'s worldwide operations are conducted through three business segments: Upstream, Refining & Chemicals, and Marketing & Services.

Unilever PLC

Unilever is a consumer goods manufacturing group based in the United Kingdom. Co. is engaged in supplying consumer goods in the refreshments, foods, home and personal product categories. Co. supplies its consumers product for nutrition, hygiene and personal care and is active in emerging markets in Asia, Africa, Central & Eastern Europe and Latin America. Co.'s portfolio includes such well-known brands as Knorr, Lipton, Hellmann's, Magnum, Omo, Dove, Lux and Axe/Lynx. Co. manages its brands under the following four category headings: savoury, dressings and spreads; ice cream and beverages; personal care; and home care. Co.'s products are sold in over 190 countries around the world.

Universal Health Services Inc. Class B

Universal Health Services owns and operates, through its subsidiaries, acute care hospitals and outpatient facilities and behavioral health care facilities. The company owns and/or operates inpatient facilities and outpatient and other facilities located in several states including, Washington, D.C., the United Kingdom, and Puerto Rico. Services provided by the company's hospitals include general and specialty surgery, internal medicine, obstetrics, emergency room care, radiology, oncology, diagnostic care, coronary care, pediatric services, pharmacy services and/or behavioral health services. The company's reportable operating segments consist of acute care hospital services and behavioral health care services.

Volkswagen AG

Wix.com Ltd.

Wix.com develops and markets an internet service that allows users to create web content. Co. is a global web development platform enabling businesses and organizations to take their businesses, brands and workflow online. Co.'s core product is the Wix Editor, a drag-and-drop visual development and website editing environment complete with high quality templates, graphics, image galleries and fonts. With Co.'s platform, Wix registered users can create and manage a professional quality digital presence tailored to their business and brands' specific look and feel that is accessible across all major browsers and the most widely used desktop, tablet and mobile devices.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

Analysts
Valens Research

Other Reports on these Companies
Other Reports from Valens Research

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch