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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2018 03 21

EXPE currently trades near historical highs relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 24.2x Uniform P/E. However, even at these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to continue fading from 24% in 2016 to 15% in 2021, accompanied by 16% Uniform Asset growth going forward. Analysts have similar expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to fade to 15% in 2018, accompanied by 12% Uniform Asset growth. However, both market and analyst expectations appear unreasonable given management's confidence in their international investments and growth. Should EXPE simply maintain Uniform ROA at current levels as management sentiment suggests, equity upside would be warranted.


GKOS Q4 2017 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Although management's concerns imply the potential for near-term headwinds, longer-term tailwinds continue to support further equity upside

PM Q4 2017 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for rapid Uniform ROA expansion, and management is confident about lower-than-expected revenue declines, outlook, and iQOS

TMUS Q4 2017 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA stability, but management has concerns about their results, debt, and 5G opportunities

ABBV, ABT, CSX, D, GT, HD, MLM, MU, NESN:CHE, PKD, PX, RCII, SAN:FRA, STZ, TXN, WMT
Underlyings
Abbott Laboratories

AbbVie Inc.

AbbVie is a research-based biopharmaceutical company. The company's products are focused on treating conditions such as chronic autoimmune diseases in rheumatology, gastroenterology and dermatology; oncology, including blood cancers; virology, including hepatitis C virus and human immunodeficiency virus; neurological disorders, such as Parkinson's disease; metabolic diseases, including thyroid disease and complications associated with cystic fibrosis; pain associated with endometriosis; as well as other serious health conditions. The company also has medicines in clinical development across immunology, oncology and neuroscience, with additional targeted investment in cystic fibrosis and women's health.

Constellation Brands Inc. Class A

Constellation Brands is an international beverage alcohol company. The company is a producer and marketer of beer, wine and spirits with operations in the U.S., Mexico, New Zealand, Italy and Canada. The company has two segments: Beer, in which the company is engaged in the U.S. beer market that includes the imported, craft, domestic super premium, and alternative beverage alcohol categories and it has the right to import, market and sell these Mexican beer brands in the U.S.; and Wine and Spirits, in which its wine portfolio is supported by grapes purchased from independent growers, primarily in the U.S., New Zealand and Chile, and vineyard holdings in the U.S., New Zealand and Italy.

CSX Corporation

CSX provides rail-based freight transportation services. The company's principal operating subsidiary, CSX Transportation, Inc., provides a link to the transportation supply chain through its rail network, which serves centers in states east of the Mississippi River, the District of Columbia and the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec. The company's CSX Intermodal Terminals, Inc. subsidiary owns and operates a system of intermodal terminals, primarily in the eastern United States and also performs drayage services (the pickup and delivery of intermodal shipments). The company's Total Distribution Services, Inc. subsidiary serves the automotive industry with distribution centers and storage locations.

Dominion Energy Inc

Dominion Energy is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries , the company is engaged in producing and transporting energy. The company's operations are conducted through its subsidiaries: Virginia Electric and Power Company, which is a regulated public utility that generates, transmits and distributes electricity for sale in Virginia and North Carolina; and Dominion Energy Gas Holdings, LLC, which serves as the intermediate parent company for the company's Federal Energy Regulatory Commission-regulated interstate natural gas transmission pipeline and underground storage systems in the eastern and Rocky Mountain regions, as well as for the liquefied natural gas import/export and storage facility.

Expedia Group Inc.

Expedia Group is an online travel company. The company's portfolio of brands includes: Expedia.com?, an online travel brand; Hotels.com?, a global lodging company operating websites with its Hotels.com? Rewards loyalty program; Vrbo?, a global online marketplace with a focus on providing lodging options for families; Egencia?, a corporate travel management company; Hotwire?, an online travel website providing spontaneous travel through its Hot Rate? deals; trivago?, an online hotel metasearch platform; and SilverRail Technologies, Inc., provider of a global rail retail and distribution platform connecting rail carriers and suppliers to both online and offline travel distributors.

Glaukos Corp

Glaukos is an ophthalmic medical technology and pharmaceutical company focused on surgical devices and sustained pharmaceutical therapies designed to treat glaucoma. The company developed Micro-Invasive Glaucoma Surgery (MIGS) to serve as an alternative to the glaucoma treatment and management paradigm. MIGS procedures involve the insertion of a micro-scale device or drug delivery system from within the eye's anterior chamber through a small corneal incision. The company's MIGS devices are designed to reduce intraocular pressure by restoring the natural outflow pathways for aqueous humor. The company's products include iStent trabecular micro-bypass stent, and iStent Inject trabecular micro-bypass stent.

Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company

Goodyear Tire & Rubber develops, manufactures, distributes and sells tires and related products and services worldwide. The company manufactures and markets various lines of rubber tires for: automobiles, trucks, buses, aircraft, motorcycles, earthmoving and mining equipment, farm implements, industrial equipment, and various other applications. The company manufactures and sells tires under the Goodyear, Dunlop, Kelly, Debica, Sava and Fulda brands and various other Goodyear owned house brands, and the private-label brands of certain customers. The company operates its business through three operating segments representing its regional tire businesses: Americas; Europe, Middle East and Africa; and Asia Pacific.

Martin Marietta Materials Inc.

Martin Marietta Materials is a natural resource-based building materials company. The company supplies aggregates (crushed stone, sand and gravel) through its network of quarries, mines and distribution yards. The company also provides cement and downstream products, namely, ready mixed concrete, asphalt and paving services. The company conducts its Building Materials business through three segments: Mid-America Group, Southeast Group and West Group. The Mid-America and Southeast Groups provide aggregates products only. The West Group provides aggregates, cement and downstream products. The company also has the Magnesia Specialties segment, which includes its magnesia-based chemicals and dolomitic lime businesses.

Micron Technology Inc.

Micron Technology provides memory and storage solutions. The company's portfolio of memory and storage technologies include Dynamic Random Access Memory, Not And, 3D XPoint? memory, and Not Or. The company's segments are: Compute and Networking Business, which includes memory products sold into client, cloud server, enterprise, graphics, and networking markets; Mobile Business, which includes memory products sold into smartphone and other mobile-device markets; Storage Business, which includes Solid-State Drives and component-level solutions sold into enterprise and cloud, client, and consumer storage markets; and Embedded Business, which includes memory and storage products.

Nestle S.A.

Nestle is a holding company which is based in Switzerland. Through its subsidiaries and allied companies, Co. is engaged in the food processing industry. Co.'s product portfolio has seven categories, Powder and Liquid Beverages, Nutritional and Health Science, Milk products and ice cream, Prepared dishes and cooking aids, PetCare, Confectionery and Water.

Parker Drilling Co.

Parker Drilling is a provider of contract drilling and drilling-related services and rental tools and services. The company has two business lines: Drilling Services, which drills oil and natural gas wells for customers in both the U.S. and international markets; and Rental Tools Services, which provides rental equipment and services to exploration and production companies, drilling contractors and service companies on land and offshore in the U.S. and select international markets. Tools provided include drill pipe, tubing, pressure control equipment, and drill collars. The company also provides well construction services such as tubular running services and downhole tools, and well intervention services.

Philip Morris International Inc.

Philip Morris International is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a tobacco company engaged in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes, smoke-free products and associated electronic devices and accessories, and other nicotine-containing products in markets outside the United States. The company's portfolio comprises international and local brands including Marlboro, which is complemented in the premium-price category by Parliament. The company's other international cigarette brands are Bond Street, Chesterfield, L&M, Lark and Philip Morris. The company also owns various local cigarette brands, such as Dji Sam Soe, Sampoerna A and Sampoerna U in Indonesia, and Fortune and Jackpot in the Philippines.

Praxair Inc.

Praxair is an industrial gas company in North and South America. The company's operations consist of two main product lines: industrial gases and surface technologies. The industrial gases product line centers on the manufacturing and distribution of atmospheric gases (oxygen, nitrogen, argon, rare gases) and process gases (carbon dioxide, helium, hydrogen, electronic gases, specialty gases, acetylene). The company's surface technologies segment supplies wear-resistant and high-temperature corrosion-resistant metallic and ceramic coatings and powders. The company's subsidiary, Praxair Surface Technologies, supplies wear-resistant and high-temperature corrosion-resistant metallic and ceramic coatings and powders.

Rent-A-Center Inc

Rent-A-Center is a holding company that provides ownership of products, such as consumer electronics, furniture and accessories, under flexible rental purchase agreements with no long-term obligation. The company's Core U.S. segment consists of the company-owned rent-to-own stores that lease household durable goods on a rent-to-own basis. The company's Acceptance Now segment provides the rent-to-own transaction to consumers who do not qualify for financing from the retailer. The company's Mexico segment consists of the company-owned rent-to-own stores in Mexico that lease household durable goods on a rent-to-own basis. The company's Rent-A-Center Franchising International, Inc. subsidiary is a franchisor of rent-to-own stores.

Sanofi

Sanofi is an integrated, global healthcare company focused on patient needs and engaged in the research, development, manufacture and marketing of healthcare products. Two segments make up Co.'s business: Pharmaceuticals and Vaccines. The Pharmaceuticals segment covers research, development, production and marketing of medicines, consisting of flagship products, plus a broad range of prescription medicines, generic medicines, and consumer health products. The Vaccines segment includes research, development, production and marketing of vaccines in five areas: pediatric vaccines, influenza vaccines, adult and adolescent booster vaccines, meningitis vaccines, and travel and endemic vaccines.

Texas Instruments Incorporated

Texas Instruments designs and makes semiconductors that it sells to electronics designers and manufacturers. The company has two reportable segments: Analog and Embedded Processing. The company's analog semiconductors change signals, such as sound, temperature, pressure or images to a stream of digital data. The company's analog segment primary product lines includes: power, signal chain, and high volume. The company's embedded processors are designed to handle specific tasks and can be optimized for various combinations of performance, power and cost, depending on the application. The company's embedded processing segment primary product lines includes: connected microcontrollers and processors.

The Home Depot, Inc.

Walmart Inc.

Walmart is engaged in global operations of retail, wholesale and other units, as well as eCommerce, located throughout the U.S., Africa, Argentina, Canada, Central America, Chile, China, India, Japan, Mexico and the U.K. The company's operations are conducted in three reportable segments: Walmart U.S., which is a mass merchandiser of consumer products, operating under the Walmart and Walmart Neighborhood Market brands, as well as walmart.com, jet.com and other eCommerce brands; Walmart International, which includes various formats divided into retail, wholesale and other categories; and Sam's Club, which is a membership-only warehouse club that also operates samsclub.com.

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