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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2019 08 21

UNFI currently trades at historical lows relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Assets, with a 0.4x Uniform P/B. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to collapse from 10% in 2018 to 2% by 2023, accompanied by 11% Uniform Asset growth going forward. Meanwhile, analysts have similar expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to fall to 5% by 2020, accompanied by 72% Uniform Asset growth due to their recent acquisition of SUPERVALU. That said, management is confident about their Thrive 2 integration initiative and their long-term business transformation. Current valuations appear to be pricing in the worst-case scenario for UNFI, and should they see profitability remain above cost-of-capital levels or even remain flat, as positive management sentiment would suggest, material upside would be warranted.

NFLX Q2 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA expansion, but management has concerns about subscriber growth and self-produced content.

ABT Q2 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA expansion, but management has concerns about guidance, Nutrition, and growth.

CVS Q2 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Although negative management sentiment suggests the potential for near-term headwinds, market expectations are far too bearish, suggesting longer-term upside remains warranted.

AAPL, ABBV, ABT, CCK, CVS, DIS, FLS, GNTX, HCC, HRB, KSU, MDR, MGM, MTN, NFLX, POOL, PVH, RMAX, SKX, SNX, UNFI, UNH.
Underlyings
Abbott Laboratories

Abbott Laboratories is engaged in the discovery, development, manufacture, and sale of a range of health care products. The company's reportable segments are: established pharmaceutical products, which includes a range of generic pharmaceuticals; diagnostic products, which includes a range of diagnostic systems and tests; nutritional products, which includes a range of pediatric and adult nutritional products; and medical devices, which includes a range of rhythm management, electrophysiology, heart failure, vascular and structural heart devices for the treatment of cardiovascular diseases, and diabetes care products for people with diabetes, as well as neuromodulation devices.

AbbVie Inc.

AbbVie is a research-based biopharmaceutical company. The company's products are focused on treating conditions such as chronic autoimmune diseases in rheumatology, gastroenterology and dermatology; oncology, including blood cancers; virology, including hepatitis C virus and human immunodeficiency virus; neurological disorders, such as Parkinson's disease; metabolic diseases, including thyroid disease and complications associated with cystic fibrosis; pain associated with endometriosis; as well as other serious health conditions. The company also has medicines in clinical development across immunology, oncology and neuroscience, with additional targeted investment in cystic fibrosis and women's health.

Apple Inc.

Apple designs, manufactures and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related services. The company's products include: iPhone; Mac; iPad; and wearables, home and accessories, which includes AirPods?, Apple TV?, Apple Watch?, Beats? products, HomePod?, iPod touch? and other Apple-branded and third-party accessories. The company's services include: digital content stores and streaming services; AppleCare, which includes AppleCare + (AC+) and the AppleCare Protection Plan; iCloud, which is the company's cloud service; licensing; and other services, which include Apple Arcade?, Apple Card?, Apple News+, and Apple Pay, a cashless payment service.

Crown Holdings Inc.

Crown Holdings is engaged in the design, manufacture and sale of packaging products and equipment for consumer goods and industrial products. The company's packaging for consumer goods include steel and aluminum cans for food, beverage, household and other consumer products, glass bottles for beverage products, metal vacuum closures and steel crowns. The company's packaging for industrial products includes steel and plastic strap consumables and equipment, paper-based protective packaging, and plastic film consumables and equipment. The company's products include the SuperEnd? and 360 End? beverage can ends, its Easylift? aperture steel food can ends, and PeelSeam? and PeelFit? aluminum foil laminated ends.

CVS Health Corporation

CVS Health is a health company. The company's segments are: Pharmacy Services, which provides a range of pharmacy benefit management solutions, including plan design offerings and administration, formulary management, and retail pharmacy network management services; Retail/Long-Term Care (LTC), which sells prescription drugs and general merchandise, including over-the-counter drugs, provides health care services through its MinuteClinic? walk-in medical clinics and conducts LTC pharmacy operations; and Health Care Benefits, which provides a range of voluntary and consumer-directed health insurance products and related services, including medical, pharmacy, dental and behavioral health plans.

Flowserve Corporation

Flowserve is a manufacturer and aftermarket service provider of flow control systems. The company develops and manufactures flow control equipment integral to the movement, control and protection of the flow of materials in its customers' processes. The company's segments are: Flowserve Pump Division, which are for custom, pumps, pre-configured industrial pumps, pump systems, mechanical seals, auxiliary systems and replacement parts and related services; and Flow Control Division, which are for engineered and industrial valves, control valves, actuators and controls and related services.

Gentex Corporation

Gentex designs and manufactures automatic-dimming rearview mirrors and electronics for the automotive industry, dimmable aircraft windows for the aviation industry, and commercial smoke alarms and signaling devices for the fire protection industry. The company's key business involves designing, developing, manufacturing and marketing interior and exterior automatic-dimming automotive rearview mirrors that use electrochromic technology to dim in proportion to the amount of headlight glare from trailing vehicle headlamps. The company also designs, develops and manufactures various electronics features to the interior and exterior automotive rearview mirrors as well as interior visors and overhead consoles.

H&R Block Inc.

H&R Block provides assisted, do-it-yourself, and virtual tax return preparation solutions through various channels (including in-person, online and mobile applications, virtual, and desktop software) and distributes the company-branded products and services to the general public in the U.S., Canada, Australia, and their respective territories. The company also provides additional services, such as Refund Transfers, its Peace of Mind? Extended Service Plan (POM), H&R Block Emerald Prepaid Mastercard?, H&R Block Emerald Advance? lines of credit, Tax Identity Shield?, and Refund Advance loans. For its Canadian clients the company also provides POM, H&R Block Instant Refund?, and H&R Block Pay With Refund? services.

Kansas City Southern

Kansas City Southern is a transportation holding company with domestic and international rail operations in North America. The company's subsidiary, The Kansas City Southern Railway Company, is a United States Class I railroad that serves a several region in the midwest and southeast regions of United States and has north/south rail route between Kansas City, MO and several main ports along the Gulf of Mexico in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas. The company's subsidiary, Kansas City Southern de Mexico, S.A. de C.V. operates a main commercial corridor of the Mexican railroad system and has as its main route a direct rail passageway between Mexico City and Laredo, TX.

McDermott International Inc.

McDermott International is a provider of engineering, procurement, construction and installation and technology solutions to the energy industry. The company designs and builds end-to-end infrastructure and technology solutions to transport and transform oil and gas into a variety of products. The company's proprietary technologies and solutions are utilized for offshore, subsea, power, liquefied natural gas and downstream energy projects around the world. The company's business is organized into five operating groups, which represent its reportable segments, consisting of: North, Central and South America; Europe, Africa, Russia and Caspian; the Middle East and North Africa; Asia Pacific; and Technology.

MGM Resorts International

MGM Resorts International is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company owns and operates casino, hotel, and entertainment resorts across the United States and in Macau. The company's segments include: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, which consists of casino resorts such as Bellagio, MGM Grand Las Vegas, Mandalay Bay, The Mirage, Luxor, New York-New York, Excalibur, and Park MGM; Regional Operations, which consists of casino resorts such as MGM Grand Detroit, Beau Rivage, Gold Strike Tunica, Borgata, MGM National Harbor, MGM Springfield, Empire City, and MGM Northfield Park; and MGM China, which owns and operates casino resorts and the related gaming subconcession and land concessions.

Netflix Inc.

Netflix is engaged in subscription streaming entertainment service including TV series, documentaries and feature films across a variety of genres and languages. Members can watch as much as they want, anytime, anywhere, on any internet-connected screen. Members can play, pause and resume watching, without commercials. Additionally, several members in the United States subscribe to the company's DVD-by-mail service. The company improves its streaming content with a focus on a programming mix of content. The company's members can download a selection of titles for offline viewing. The company operates its business as a global operating segment.

Pool Corporation

Pool is a wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies, equipment and related leisure products and a distributor of irrigation and related products. The company's products include: maintenance products; repair and replacement parts for pool equipment; packaged pool kits including walls, liners, braces and coping for in-ground and above-ground pools; pool equipment and components for new pool construction and the remodeling of existing pools; irrigation and related products; building materials; commercial products; and other pool construction and recreational products, which consist of a number of product categories and include discretionary recreational and related outdoor lifestyle products.

PVH Corp.

PVH is a branded apparel company. The company designs and markets branded dress shirts, neckwear, sportswear, jeanswear, performance apparel, intimate apparel, underwear, swimwear, swim products, handbags, accessories, footwear and other related products. The company also licenses the use of its trademarks to third parties and joint ventures. The company's businesses include: Tommy Hilfiger, which consists of the Tommy Hilfiger North America and Tommy Hilfiger International segments; Calvin Klein, which consists of the Calvin Klein North America and Calvin Klein International segments; and Heritage Brands, which consists of the Heritage Brands Wholesale and Heritage Brands Retail segments.

RE/MAX Holdings Inc.

Re/Max Holdings is a holding company. The company's only business is to act as the sole manager of RMCO, LLC. The company is a franchisor in the real estate industry, franchising real estate brokerages globally under the RE/MAX (RE/MAX) brand, and mortgage brokerages within the U.S. under the Motto Mortgage (Motto) brand. RE/MAX and Motto are fully franchised - the company does not own any of the brokerages that operate under these brands. All of the RE/MAX branded brokerage office locations are being operated by franchisees. The company operates under the following three segments: RE/MAX Franchising, Motto Franchising and booj.

Skechers U.S.A. Inc. Class A

Skechers USA designs and markets Skechers-branded lifestyle footwear for men, women and children, and performance footwear for men and women under the Skechers Performance brand name. The company also designs and markets men's and women's Skechers branded lifestyle apparel, and license the Skechers brand to others for accessories, leather goods, eyewear and scrub manufacturers, among others. The company's product offering is sold through department and specialty stores, athletic and independent retailers, boutiques and internet retailers. In addition to wholesale distribution, the company's footwear is available at its direct-to-consumer websites and its own retail stores.

TD SYNNEX CORP

Synnex is a business process services company, providing a range of distribution, logistics and integration services for the technology industry and providing outsourced services focused on customer engagement to a range of enterprises. The company's segments are: Technology Solutions, which distributes peripherals, information technologysystems including data center server and storage solutions, system components, software, networking, communications and security equipment; and Concentrix, which provides a portfolio of solutions and business services focused on customer engagement, process optimization, technology innovation, front and back-office automation and business transformation to clients.

United Natural Foods Inc.

United Natural Foods is a distributor of natural, organic, specialty, produce, and grocery and non-food products, and provider of support services in the United States and Canada. The company's selection of products includes nationally advertised brand name and private-label products, including grocery, general merchandise, home, health and beauty care, and pharmacy, which are sold through its Wholesale segment to wholesale customers and through its subsidiary, SUPERVALU INC.'s-operated retail stores to shoppers. The company provides marketing services for its customers and suppliers, including consumer and trade marketing programs, as well as programs to support suppliers in understanding its markets.

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated

UnitedHealth Group is a health care company. The company has four reportable segments across its two business platforms, UnitedHealthcare and Optum: UnitedHealthcare, which provides health care benefits to an array of customers and markets through its UnitedHealthcare Employer & Individual, UnitedHealthcare Medicare & Retirement, UnitedHealthcare Community & State and UnitedHealthcare Global; OptumHealth, which serves the physical, emotional and health-related financial needs of individuals; OptumInsight, which provides services, technology and health care knowledge to main participants in the health care industry; and OptumRx, which provides pharmacy care services and programs.

Vail Resorts Inc.

Vail Resorts is a holding company and operates through various subsidiaries. The company's business segments include: Mountain, which operates various mountain resort properties and three urban ski areas, as well as ancillary services; Lodging, which provides a range of services to guests, including owned and managed lodging properties, managed condominium units, National Park Service concessionaire properties, a resort ground transportation company, and the company-owned mountain resort golf courses; and Real Estate, which includes the sale of land parcels to third-party developers and planning for future real estate development projects, including zoning and acquisition of applicable permits.

Walt Disney Company

Walt Disney is an entertainment company. The company's segments are: Media Networks, which includes domestic cable networks, broadcast television network and domestic television stations, and television production and distribution; Parks, Experiences and Products, which includes theme parks and resorts, and consumer products operations; Studio Entertainment, which includes motion picture production and distribution, music production and distribution, and post-production services; and Direct-to-Consumer and International, which includes international television networks and channels, direct-to-consumer streaming services, and other digital content distribution platforms and services.

Warrior Met Coal Inc.

Warrior Met Coal is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a producer and exporter of met coal. The company sells its coal product to steel producers in Europe and South America. The company's mining operations consist of two underground met coal mines in Southern Appalachia's coal seam (Mines No. 7 and No. 4) and other surface met and thermal coal mines. The company's natural gas operations remove and sell natural gas from the coal seams owned or leased by the company and others as a byproduct of coal production. The company's degasification operations improve mining operations and safety by reducing natural gas levels in its mines. The company also owns mineral rights for recoverable reserves at its Blue Creek Energy Mine.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

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