Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2021 06 01

Market expectations for ARMK are currently very pessimistic. The market is expecting
UAFRS-based (Uniform) ROA to never recover to 20% historical average levels, sitting at weak 13% levels going forward, with Uniform asset growth ranging near historical lows.

The market is expecting the food, facilities, and uniform outsourcing business to never recover from the pandemic, and to have operational issues too. Investors do not appear to recognize how the company could benefit from significant macro tailwinds in its market as the world is re-opening. More companies may be looking to outsource these offerings in a more uncertain world and many of its smaller competitors are struggling to survive, giving in an opportunity to consolidate the space.

On top of that, the company's smart investments in innovation give it competitive advantages that help it retain and build business, and the market isn't recognizing that.

The company's compensation framework also aligns management to focus on growing the business and taking share, doing so in ways that improve the company's returns, exactly as investors would want to see. And management's confidence in the Q2 earnings call about both the secular recovery of the business and their execution on strategies to take share and improve returns highlights the company is executing well.

Considering low market expectations, positive strategic and macro tailwinds, and management's favorable alignment and execution, there appears to be material near-term and long-term equity upside for ARMK.

AAPL Q2 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to expand, but management appears concerned about dividend raises, international performance, and Apple Services

TSLA Q1 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for record-high Uniform ROA, but management may have concerns about their supply chain, cash flows, and production

TXN Q1 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to reach new peaks, but management may be concerned about lead times, supply chain disruptions, and capacity

ABT, AEP, ANTM, CHWY, CVS, EW, GNRC, ISRG, KO, MO, PFE, PM, SNA
Underlyings
Abbott Laboratories

Abbott Laboratories is engaged in the discovery, development, manufacture, and sale of a range of health care products. The company's reportable segments are: established pharmaceutical products, which includes a range of generic pharmaceuticals; diagnostic products, which includes a range of diagnostic systems and tests; nutritional products, which includes a range of pediatric and adult nutritional products; and medical devices, which includes a range of rhythm management, electrophysiology, heart failure, vascular and structural heart devices for the treatment of cardiovascular diseases, and diabetes care products for people with diabetes, as well as neuromodulation devices.

Altria Group Inc

Altria Group is a holding company. The company's subsidiaries include: Philip Morris USA Inc., which is engaged in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes; John Middleton Co., which is engaged in the manufacture and sale of machine-made cigars and pipe tobacco; Sherman Group Holdings, LLC and its subsidiaries, which are engaged in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes and the sale of cigars; and UST LLC, which through its subsidiaries, including U.S. Smokeless Tobacco Company LLC and Ste. Michelle Wine Estates Ltd., is engaged in the manufacture and sale of smokeless tobacco products and wine. The products of the company's tobacco subsidiaries include smokeable tobacco products and machine-made cigars.

American Electric Power Company Inc.

American Electric Power Company is a public utility holding company. The public utility subsidiaries of the company provide electric service, consisting of generation, transmission and distribution, on an integrated basis to their retail customers. The service areas of the company's public utility subsidiaries cover portions of the states of Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and West Virginia. Transmission networks are interconnected with distribution facilities in the territories served. The company's service company subsidiary provides accounting, administrative, information systems, engineering, financial, legal, maintenance and other services.

Anthem Inc.

Anthem is an insurance holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a health benefits company, serving medical members through its affiliated health plans. The company has three segments: Commercial & Specialty Business, which provides fully-insured health products, managed care services to self-funded customers, and other insurance products and services; Government Business, which includes Medicare and Medicaid businesses, its subsidiary, National Government Services, and services provided to the federal government in connection with its Federal Health Products and Services business; and Other, which includes pharmacy benefits management business and integrated health services business.

Apple Inc.

Apple designs, manufactures and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related services. The company's products include: iPhone; Mac; iPad; and wearables, home and accessories, which includes AirPods?, Apple TV?, Apple Watch?, Beats? products, HomePod?, iPod touch? and other Apple-branded and third-party accessories. The company's services include: digital content stores and streaming services; AppleCare, which includes AppleCare + (AC+) and the AppleCare Protection Plan; iCloud, which is the company's cloud service; licensing; and other services, which include Apple Arcade?, Apple Card?, Apple News+, and Apple Pay, a cashless payment service.

Aramark

Aramark is a provider of food, facilities and uniform services. The company manages its Food and Support Services (FSS) business in segments split between its United States and International operations. The company's FSS segments manage a number of interrelated services-including food, hospitality, procurement and facility services-for school districts, colleges and universities, healthcare facilities, businesses, sports, entertainment and recreational venues, conference and convention centers, national and state parks and correctional institutions. The company's Uniform and Career Apparel segment provides employee uniform solution, including design, sourcing and manufacturing, delivery, cleaning and maintenance.

Chewy Inc. Class A

Chewy is a pure play e-commerce business geared toward pet products for dogs, cats, fish, birds, small pets, horses, and reptiles. The company serves its customers through its retail website, www.chewy.com, and its mobile applications and focuses on delivering exceptional customer service, a large selection of high-quality pet food, treats and supplies, price, convenience (including Chewy's Autoship subscription program), fast shipping, and hassle-free returns.

Coca-Cola Company

Coca-Cola is a nonalcoholic beverage company. The company owns or licenses and markets nonalcoholic beverage brands, which it groups into the following category clusters: sparkling soft drinks; water, enhanced water and sports drinks; juice, dairy and plant-based beverages; tea and coffee; and energy drinks. The company's nonalcoholic sparkling soft drink brands are Coca-Cola, Diet Coke, Fanta and Sprite. The company markets, manufactures and sells beverage concentrates and syrups, including fountain syrups; and finished sparkling soft drinks and other nonalcoholic beverages. The company's segments are Europe, Middle East and Africa; Latin America; North America; Asia Pacific; Global Ventures; and Bottling Investments.

CVS Health Corporation

CVS Health is a health company. The company's segments are: Pharmacy Services, which provides a range of pharmacy benefit management solutions, including plan design offerings and administration, formulary management, and retail pharmacy network management services; Retail/Long-Term Care (LTC), which sells prescription drugs and general merchandise, including over-the-counter drugs, provides health care services through its MinuteClinic? walk-in medical clinics and conducts LTC pharmacy operations; and Health Care Benefits, which provides a range of voluntary and consumer-directed health insurance products and related services, including medical, pharmacy, dental and behavioral health plans.

EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORP

Edwards Lifesciences is engaged in patient-focused medical for structural heart disease, as well as critical care and surgical monitoring. The company is a manufacturer of heart valve systems and repair products used to replace or repair a patient's diseased or defective heart valve. The company is also engaged in hemodynamic and noninvasive brain and tissue oxygenation monitoring systems used to measure a patient's cardiovascular function in the hospital setting. The company's products and technologies are categorized into four main areas: Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement, Transcatheter Mitral and Tricuspid Therapies, Surgical Structural Heart, and Critical Care.

Generac Holdings Inc.

Generac Holdings is a designer and manufacturer of a range of power generation equipment and other power products serving the residential, light commercial and industrial markets. The company's products include residential, commercial and industrial standby generators, as well as portable and mobile generators used in a range of applications. Other engine powered products that the company designs and manufactures include light towers which provide temporary lighting for various end markets; commercial and industrial mobile heaters and pumps used in the oil and gas, construction and other industrial markets; and a product line of outdoor power equipment for residential and commercial use.

Intuitive Surgical Inc.

Intuitive Surgical develops, manufactures, and markets the da Vinci? Surgical System and the Ion? endoluminal system. The systems consist of a surgeon console or consoles, a patient-side cart, a vision system, and proprietary instruments and accessories. The company's technology is designed to provide surgeons with a range of motion analogous to the motions of a human wrist, while filtering out the tremors inherent in a surgeon's hands. The company's primary platform for robotic-assisted surgery is its family of da Vinci Surgical Systems. The da Vinci Surgical System allows surgeons to operate while seated at an ergonomic console viewing a three-dimensional image of the surgical field.

Pfizer Inc.

Pfizer is a research-based biopharmaceutical company. The company is engaged in discovering, developing, manufacturing and distributing of healthcare products, including medicines and vaccines. The company manages its commercial operations through three businesses: Pfizer Biopharmaceuticals Group, which includes Oncology, Inflammation and Immunology, Rare Disease, Hospital, Vaccines and Internal Medicine business units, as well as a hospital business unit; Upjohn, which includes the company's solid oral dose brands such as Lyrica, Lipitor, Norvasc, Celebrex, Viagra, and certain generic medicines; and Consumer Healthcare, which is an over-the-counter medicines business.

Philip Morris International Inc.

Philip Morris International is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a tobacco company engaged in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes, smoke-free products and associated electronic devices and accessories, and other nicotine-containing products in markets outside the United States. The company's portfolio comprises international and local brands including Marlboro, which is complemented in the premium-price category by Parliament. The company's other international cigarette brands are Bond Street, Chesterfield, L&M, Lark and Philip Morris. The company also owns various local cigarette brands, such as Dji Sam Soe, Sampoerna A and Sampoerna U in Indonesia, and Fortune and Jackpot in the Philippines.

Snap-on Incorporated

Snap-on is a manufacturer and marketer of tools, equipment, diagnostics, repair information and systems solutions. Products and services include hand and power tools, tool storage, diagnostics software, handheld and PC-based diagnostic products, information and management systems, shop equipment and other solutions for vehicle dealerships and repair centers, as well as for customers in industries, such as aviation and aerospace, agriculture, construction, government and military, mining, natural resources, power generation and technical education. The company also provides financing programs designed to facilitate the sales of its products and support its franchise business.

Tesla Inc

Tesla designs, develops, manufactures, sells and leases electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and provides services related to its products. The company operates as two reportable segments: automotive, which includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales, and leasing of electric vehicles as well as sales of automotive regulatory credits; and energy generation and storage, which includes the design, manufacture, installation, sales, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, services related to such products, and sales of solar energy system incentives.

Texas Instruments Incorporated

Texas Instruments designs and makes semiconductors that it sells to electronics designers and manufacturers. The company has two reportable segments: Analog and Embedded Processing. The company's analog semiconductors change signals, such as sound, temperature, pressure or images to a stream of digital data. The company's analog segment primary product lines includes: power, signal chain, and high volume. The company's embedded processors are designed to handle specific tasks and can be optimized for various combinations of performance, power and cost, depending on the application. The company's embedded processing segment primary product lines includes: connected microcontrollers and processors.

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Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
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  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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