Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2018 09 05

LGIH currently trades well below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 10.1x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to decline from 12% in 2017 to 6% in 2022, accompanied by 10% Uniform Asset growth going forward. That said, analysts have bullish expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to expand to 14% levels through 2019, accompanied by 21% Uniform Asset growth.

Moreover, growing analyst outlook and strong homebuilding tailwinds suggest market expectations are far too bearish, indicating upside is likely justified should LGIH simply sustain profitability near current levels.

ICHR Q2 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – While management's concerns about M&A, margins, and capacity suggest near-term upside may be limited, overly bearish market expectations support longer-term upside

MCD Q2 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for record-high Uniform ROA, but management has concerns about customer experience, growth rates, and price sensitivity

PLNT Q2 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Expectations for stagnant profitability are too bearish, implying that, despite the potential for near-term headwinds, long-term equity upside remains warranted

ABBV, ALB, BMY, ESV, IBM, LKQ, MEI, MO, MYL, PFE, PM, SLB
Underlyings
AbbVie Inc.

AbbVie is a research-based biopharmaceutical company. The company's products are focused on treating conditions such as chronic autoimmune diseases in rheumatology, gastroenterology and dermatology; oncology, including blood cancers; virology, including hepatitis C virus and human immunodeficiency virus; neurological disorders, such as Parkinson's disease; metabolic diseases, including thyroid disease and complications associated with cystic fibrosis; pain associated with endometriosis; as well as other serious health conditions. The company also has medicines in clinical development across immunology, oncology and neuroscience, with additional targeted investment in cystic fibrosis and women's health.

Albemarle Corporation

Albemarle is a global developer, manufacturer and marketer of chemicals across a range of end markets including energy storage, petroleum refining, consumer electronics, construction, automotive, lubricants, pharmaceuticals, crop protection and custom chemistry services. The company's segments include: Lithium, which develops and manufactures a range of basic lithium compounds and lithium specialties and reagents; Bromine Specialties, which includes products used in fire safety solutions and other chemicals applications; and Catalysts, which includes Clean Fuels Technologies, fluidized catalytic cracking catalysts and additives, and performance catalyst solutions.

Altria Group Inc

Altria Group is a holding company. The company's subsidiaries include: Philip Morris USA Inc., which is engaged in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes; John Middleton Co., which is engaged in the manufacture and sale of machine-made cigars and pipe tobacco; Sherman Group Holdings, LLC and its subsidiaries, which are engaged in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes and the sale of cigars; and UST LLC, which through its subsidiaries, including U.S. Smokeless Tobacco Company LLC and Ste. Michelle Wine Estates Ltd., is engaged in the manufacture and sale of smokeless tobacco products and wine. The products of the company's tobacco subsidiaries include smokeable tobacco products and machine-made cigars.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company

Bristol-Myers Squibb is engaged in the discovery, development, licensing, manufacturing, marketing, distribution and sale of biopharmaceutical products. The company's products are sold worldwide, primarily to wholesalers, specialty distributors, retail pharmacies, hospitals, government entities and the medical profession. The company manufactures products in the United States and Puerto Rico and has manufacturing operations in two foreign countries. The company has products in the following therapeutic classes: hematology, oncology, cardiovascular and immunology. The company's pharmaceutical products include chemically-synthesized or small molecule drugs and products produced from biological processes, called biologics.

Ichor Holdings Ltd.

International Business Machines Corporation

International Business Machines provides integrated solutions and products that utilize data, information technology, capability in industries and business processes. The company has five segments: Cloud and Cognitive Software, which provides a range of software offerings; Global Business Services, which provides consulting, systems integration, application management and business process outsourcing services; Global Technology Services, which provides project services, managed and outsourcing services, cloud-delivered services, and technical and IT support services; Systems, which provides technology and service; and Global Financing, which provides client financing, among others.

LGI Homes Inc.

LGI Homes is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the design, construction, and sale of new homes in markets in Texas, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, New Mexico, South Carolina, North Carolina, Colorado, Washington, Tennessee, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Alabama, California, Oregon, and Nevada. The company's product offerings include entry-level homes, including both detached homes and townhomes, and move-up homes sold, which are sold under its LGI Homes brand, and its luxury series homes, which are sold under its Terrata Homes brand. The company's homebuilding operations are organized and managed by seven divisions: West, Northwest, Central, Midwest, Florida, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.

LKQ Corporation

LKQ is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides alternative vehicle collision replacement products and alternative vehicle mechanical replacement products. The company is also a provider of alternative vehicle replacement and maintenance products in the United Kingdom, Germany, the Benelux region (Belgium, Netherlands, and Luxembourg), Italy, Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, Austria, and other European countries. In addition to its wholesale operations, the company operates self service retail facilities across the United States that sell recycled automotive products from end-of-life-vehicles. The company is also a distributor of specialty vehicle aftermarket equipment and accessories.

McDonald's Corporation

McDonald's franchises and operates McDonald's restaurants. The company's menu includes hamburgers and cheeseburgers, Big Mac, Quarter Pounder with Cheese, Filet-O-Fish, several chicken sandwiches, Chicken McNuggets, wraps, fries, shakes, McFlurry desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, pies, soft drinks, coffee, McCafe beverages and other beverages. The company's restaurants in the United States and various international markets provide a full or limited breakfast menu. Breakfast offerings may include Egg McMuffin, Sausage McMuffin with Egg, McGriddles, biscuit and bagel sandwiches and hotcakes. The restaurants also sells a variety of other products during limited-time promotions

Methode Electronics Inc.

Methode Electronics is a manufacturer of component and subsystem devices. The company's business segments are: Automotive, which supplies electronic and electro-mechanical devices and related products; Industrial, which manufactures external lighting solutions, industrial safety radio remote controls, braided flexible cables, current-carrying laminated busbars and devices; Interface, which provides a variety of copper and fiber-optic interface and interface solutions for the appliance, commercial food service, construction, consumer, material handling, point-of-sale and telecommunications markets; and Medical, which includes surface support technology aimed at pressure injury prevention.

Pfizer Inc.

Pfizer is a research-based biopharmaceutical company. The company is engaged in discovering, developing, manufacturing and distributing of healthcare products, including medicines and vaccines. The company manages its commercial operations through three businesses: Pfizer Biopharmaceuticals Group, which includes Oncology, Inflammation and Immunology, Rare Disease, Hospital, Vaccines and Internal Medicine business units, as well as a hospital business unit; Upjohn, which includes the company's solid oral dose brands such as Lyrica, Lipitor, Norvasc, Celebrex, Viagra, and certain generic medicines; and Consumer Healthcare, which is an over-the-counter medicines business.

Philip Morris International Inc.

Philip Morris International is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a tobacco company engaged in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes, smoke-free products and associated electronic devices and accessories, and other nicotine-containing products in markets outside the United States. The company's portfolio comprises international and local brands including Marlboro, which is complemented in the premium-price category by Parliament. The company's other international cigarette brands are Bond Street, Chesterfield, L&M, Lark and Philip Morris. The company also owns various local cigarette brands, such as Dji Sam Soe, Sampoerna A and Sampoerna U in Indonesia, and Fortune and Jackpot in the Philippines.

Planet Fitness Inc. Class A

Planet Fitness is a holding company. Through its subsidiries, the company is engaged as a franchisor and operator of fitness centers. The company's stores include co-branded cardio equipment, free weights, strength machines, a workout area, a small retail area and a drink cooler. The company operates and manages its business in three business segments: Franchise, which includes operations related to its franchising business in the U.S., Puerto Rico, Canada, the Dominican Republic and Panama; Corporate-owned stores, which includes operations with respect to all corporate-owned stores throughout the U.S. and Canada; and Equipment, which includes the sale of equipment to franchisee-owned stores in the U.S.

Schlumberger NV

Schlumberger provides technology for reservoir characterization, drilling, production and processing to the oil and gas industry. The company has four segments: Reservoir Characterization, which consists of the principal technologies involved in finding and defining hydrocarbon resources; Drilling, which consists of the principal technologies involved in the drilling and positioning of oil and gas wells; Production, which consists of the principal technologies involved in the lifetime production of oil and gas reservoirs; and Cameron, which consists of the principal technologies involved in pressure and flow control for drilling and intervention rigs, oil and gas wells and production facilities.

Valaris PLC Class A

Ensco is an offshore contract drilling company engaged in providing offshore contract drilling services to the international oil and gas industry. As of Dec 31 2017, Co. owned and operated an offshore drilling rig fleet of 62 rigs. Co.'s rig fleet includes 12 drillships, 11 semisubmersible rigs, four moored semisubmersible rigs and 38 jackup rigs, including rigs under construction. Co.'s business consists of three operating segments: floaters, which includes its drillships and semisubmersible rigs; jackups; and other, which consists of management services on rigs owned by third-parties. Co.'s two reportable segments, floaters and jackups, provide one service, contract drilling.

Viatris Inc.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

Analysts
Valens Research

Other Reports on these Companies
Other Reports from Valens Research

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch