Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2019 02 20

JNJ currently trades near recent averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 17.0x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to compress from 18% in 2017 to 15% in 2022, accompanied by 2% Uniform Asset growth going forward. However, analysts have bullish expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to expand to 19% by 2019, accompanied by 2% Uniform Asset growth. Moreover, management is confident about new anti-depressant treatments, long-term investments, and their ability to sustain earnings growth. Should JNJ just sustain profitability near current levels, as positive management sentiment would suggest, upside would be warranted.

DHI Q1 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Although management sentiment suggests the potential for near-term headwinds, overly bearish market expectations suggest longer-term upside remains warranted

FII Q4 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to decline, but management is confident about their dividend strategy and the acquisition of Hermes

TXN Q4 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for further Uniform ROA expansion, but management has concerns about profitability, inventory, growth, and macroeconomic factors

ABBV, ACN, AKS, EBAY, FB, GILD, GOOGL, IBM, LEN, MLNX, NOV, SBUX, TGE, UNH, UTX, ZAYO
Underlyings
AbbVie Inc.

AbbVie is a research-based biopharmaceutical company. The company's products are focused on treating conditions such as chronic autoimmune diseases in rheumatology, gastroenterology and dermatology; oncology, including blood cancers; virology, including hepatitis C virus and human immunodeficiency virus; neurological disorders, such as Parkinson's disease; metabolic diseases, including thyroid disease and complications associated with cystic fibrosis; pain associated with endometriosis; as well as other serious health conditions. The company also has medicines in clinical development across immunology, oncology and neuroscience, with additional targeted investment in cystic fibrosis and women's health.

Accenture Plc Class A

AK Steel Holding Corporation

AK Steel Holding is a producer of flat-rolled carbon, stainless and electrical steels products primarily for the automotive, infrastructure and manufacturing, and distributors and converters markets through its wholly-owned subsidiary, AK Steel Corporation. The company's other subsidiaries also provide customer solutions with carbon and stainless steel tubing products, solutions, tool design, hot- and cold-stamped steel components and assemblies. The company sells its carbon steel products mainly to customers in North America, and it sells its electrical and stainless steel products primarily in North America and Europe. The company also produces metallurgical coal through its AK Coal Resources, Inc. subsidiary.

Alphabet Inc. Class A

Alphabet is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in a collection of businesses, which its primary business is Google. The company reports all non-Google businesses collectively as Other Bets. Google's main products and platforms are Android, Chrome, Gmail, Google Drive, Google Maps, Google Play, Search, and YouTube. The company also provides advertisers with tools that help them attribute and measure their advertising campaigns. In addition, Other Bets includes Access, Calico, CapitalG, GV, Verily, Waymo, and X, among others. Other Bets primarily engages in the sales of internet and TV services through Access as well as licensing and research and development services through Verily.

D.R. Horton Inc.

D.R. Horton is a homebuilding company. The company's business operations consist of homebuilding, a majority-owned residential lot development company, financial services and other activities. The company's financial services operations provide mortgage financing and title agency services to homebuyers in its homebuilding markets. The company's subsidiary, DHI Mortgage, provides mortgage financing services primarily to its homebuyers and generally sells the mortgages it originates and the related servicing rights to third-party purchasers. The company's subsidiary title companies serve as title insurance agents by providing title insurance policies, examination and closing services, primarily to its homebuyers.

EBay Inc.

eBay is a global commerce provider, which includes its Marketplace, StubHub and Classifieds platforms. The company's Marketplace platforms include its online marketplace located at www.ebay.com, its localized counterparts and the eBay suite of mobile apps. The company's StubHub platforms include its online ticket platform located at www.stubhub.com, its localized counterparts and the StubHub mobile apps. These platforms connect fans with their favorite sporting events, shows and artists and enable them to buy and sell tickets whenever and wherever they want. The company's Classifieds platforms include a collection of brands such as mobile.de, Kijiji, Gumtree, Marktplaats, eBay Kleinanzeigen and others.

Facebook Inc. Class A

Facebook is building and engaging products that enable people to connect and share with friends and family through mobile devices, personal computers, virtual reality headsets, and in-home devices. The company's products include: Facebook, which enables people to connect, share, discover, and communicate with each other on mobile devices and personal computers; Instagram, which is a place where people can express themselves through photos, videos, and private messaging, and explore their interests in businesses, creators and communities; Messenger and WhatsApp, which are messaging applications; and Oculus, which connects people through its Oculus virtual reality products.

Federated Hermes Inc. Class B

Federated Hermes is a provider of investment management products and related financial services. The company sponsors, markets and provides investment-related services to various investment products, including sponsored investment companies and other funds (Federated Funds) and Separate Accounts. The company markets these funds to banks, broker/dealers and other financial intermediaries who use them to meet the needs of customers and/or clients, including retail investors, corporations and retirement plans. The company also provides a range of services to support the operation and administration of the Federated Funds. These services include administrative services and shareholder servicing.

Gilead Sciences Inc.

Gilead Sciences is a research-based biopharmaceutical company that discovers, develops and commercializes medicines. The company's primary areas of focus include viral diseases, inflammatory and fibrotic diseases and oncology. The company's products include: Biktarvy for the treatment of HIV-1 infection in certain patients; Vosevi?, a single tablet regimen of sofosbuvir, velpatasvir and voxilaprevir for the re-treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus infection in adults; Vemlidy? for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B virus infection in adults with compensated liver disease; and Yescarta (axicabtagene ciloleucel) for the treatment of adult patients with relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphoma.

International Business Machines Corporation

International Business Machines provides integrated solutions and products that utilize data, information technology, capability in industries and business processes. The company has five segments: Cloud and Cognitive Software, which provides a range of software offerings; Global Business Services, which provides consulting, systems integration, application management and business process outsourcing services; Global Technology Services, which provides project services, managed and outsourcing services, cloud-delivered services, and technical and IT support services; Systems, which provides technology and service; and Global Financing, which provides client financing, among others.

Johnson & Johnson

Johnson & Johnson is a holding company engaged in the research and development, manufacture and sale of a range of products in the health care field. The company has three business segments: Consumer, which includes a range of products focused on personal healthcare used in the beauty, over-the-counter pharmaceutical, baby care, oral care, women's health and wound care markets; Pharmaceutical, which is focused on six therapeutic areas: immunology, infectious diseases, neuroscience, oncology, cardiovascular and metabolism and pulmonary hypertension; and Medical Devices, which includes products used in the orthopaedic, surgery, interventional solutions, and eye health fields.

Lennar Corporation Class A

Lennar is a homebuilder in the United States, an originator of residential and commercial mortgage loans, a provider of title insurance and closing services and a developer of multifamily rental properties. The company's homebuilding operations include the construction and sale of single-family attached and detached homes as well as the purchase, development and sale of residential land directly and through unconsolidated entities in which it has investments. The company operates under the Lennar brand name. The company creates and participates in joint ventures that acquire and develop land for its homebuilding operations, for sale to third parties or for use in the ventures' own homebuilding operations.

Mellanox Technologies Ltd.

Mellanox Technologies is a fabless semiconductor company that designs, manufactures and sells interconnect products and solutions primarily based on the InfiniBand and Ethernet standards. Co.'s products facilitate data transmission between servers, storage systems, communications infrastructure equipment and other embedded systems. Co.'s products include integrated circuits, adapter cards, switch systems, multi-core and network processors, cables, modules, software, services and accessories as an integral part of a total end-to-end networking solution used in multiple markets, including high-performance computing, cloud, Web 2.0, storage, financial services, and enterprise data center.

NOV Inc.

National Oilwell Varco is an independent provider of equipment and technology to the upstream oil and gas industry. The company's segments include: Wellbore Technologies, which designs, manufactures, rents, and sells a variety of equipment and technologies used to perform drilling operations; Completion and Production Solutions, which designs, manufactures, and sells equipment and technologies for hydraulic fracture stimulation, well intervention, onshore production, and offshore production; and Rig Technologies, which designs, manufactures and sells land rigs, offshore drilling equipment packages, and drilling rig components that mechanize and automate the drilling process and rig functionality.

Raytheon Technologies Corporation

United Technologies provides technology products and services to the building systems and aerospace industries. The company has four segments: Otis, which designs, manufactures, sells and installs passenger and freight elevators; Carrier, which provides heating, ventilating, air conditioning refrigeration, fire, security and building automation products; Pratt & Whitney, which supplies aircraft engines for the commercial, military, business jet and general aviation market; and Collins Aerospace Systems, which provides aerospace products and aftermarket service solutions for aircraft manufacturers, airlines, regional, business and general aviation markets, military, space and undersea operations.

Starbucks Corporation

Starbucks is a roaster, marketer and retailer of coffee. The company's segments are: Americas, which is inclusive of the United States, Canada, and Latin America; International, which is inclusive of China, Japan, Asia Pacific, Europe, Middle East, and Africa; and Channel Development. The company's Americas and International segments include both company-operated and licensed stores. The company's Channel Development segment includes roasted whole bean and ground coffees, Seattle's Best Coffee?, Starbucks- and Teavana-branded single-serve products, a variety of ready-to-drink beverages, and other products sold worldwide outside of the company's company-operated and licensed stores.

Tallgrass Energy LP Class A

Texas Instruments Incorporated

Texas Instruments designs and makes semiconductors that it sells to electronics designers and manufacturers. The company has two reportable segments: Analog and Embedded Processing. The company's analog semiconductors change signals, such as sound, temperature, pressure or images to a stream of digital data. The company's analog segment primary product lines includes: power, signal chain, and high volume. The company's embedded processors are designed to handle specific tasks and can be optimized for various combinations of performance, power and cost, depending on the application. The company's embedded processing segment primary product lines includes: connected microcontrollers and processors.

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated

UnitedHealth Group is a health care company. The company has four reportable segments across its two business platforms, UnitedHealthcare and Optum: UnitedHealthcare, which provides health care benefits to an array of customers and markets through its UnitedHealthcare Employer & Individual, UnitedHealthcare Medicare & Retirement, UnitedHealthcare Community & State and UnitedHealthcare Global; OptumHealth, which serves the physical, emotional and health-related financial needs of individuals; OptumInsight, which provides services, technology and health care knowledge to main participants in the health care industry; and OptumRx, which provides pharmacy care services and programs.

Zayo Group Holdings Inc.

Zayo Group Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a provider of communications and bandwidth infrastructure in the United States, Canada and Europe. The company has four segments: Zayo Networks, which provides access to bandwidth infrastructure; Zayo Colocation, which provides data center and cloud infrastructure solutions to a range of enterprise, carrier, cloud and content customers; Allstream, which provides Cloud VoIP and Data Solutions; and Other, which is comprised of Zayo Professional Services that provides network and technical resources to customers. Key products include leased dark fiber, fiber to cellular towers and small cell sites and other bandwidth offering.

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  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
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Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

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