Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2021 08 03

Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) is one of the most important platforms for helping commercial real estate (CRE) firms adapt to the new post-pandemic normal they're going to have to change for, in terms of both demand and type of office usage after the At-Home Revolution. It is one of the two largest players in helping CRE firms in terms of financing, buying and selling properties, managing properties, project development and strategy consulting, basically everything end-to-end they need to do.

Being part of a dominant duopoly has unlocked robust UAFRS-based ROA (Uniform ROA or ROA') for the company that it has shown to be sustainable even through the pandemic,
because of how its various businesses create value for its customers in different stages of the real estate cycle. And now, with the transformation its clients need to go through, demand for its offerings is bound to get stronger, not weaker, as it will help solve the issues with the CRE transformation.

On top of that, JLL's management's compensation framework aligns them to focus on growing, and also improving business profitability and resiliency. Management also has confidence when talking about how they are seeing a stronger recovery than they had anticipated across the business.

The market's pessimism about the outlook for JLL, the company's strong operating strategy, execution, sound alignment, and growing confidence about the macro outlook point to significant equity upside for JLL.

NKE Q4 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for record-high Uniform ROA, but management may be concerned about revenue growth, Nike Direct, and SG&A costs

GIS Q4 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to contract, but management may be concerned about pricing, demand, and plant-based products

VEEV Q1 2022 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for record-high Uniform ROA, but management appears concerned about pharmaceutical sales forces, Data Cloud, and Vault

JLL, GIS, NKE, VEEV, ABNB, ACN, BWA, CHWY, DG, EA, HPQ, HRB, JBL, MKC, MNST, PAYX, RBLX, SNOW, SNPS, SNX, ZTS
Underlyings
Accenture Plc Class A

Airbnb Inc. Class A

BorgWarner Inc.

BorgWarner is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a global product provider in technology solutions for combustion, hybrid and electric vehicles. The company manufactures and sells these products worldwide, primarily to original equipment manufacturers of light vehicles (passenger cars, sport-utility vehicles, vans and light trucks). The company's segments are: Engine, which provides turbochargers, eBoosters, timing systems, emissions systems, thermal systems, gasoline ignition technology, cabin heaters, battery heaters and battery charging; and Drivetrain, which provides rotating electrical components, power electronics, clutching systems, control modules and all-wheel drive systems.

Chewy Inc. Class A

Chewy is a pure play e-commerce business geared toward pet products for dogs, cats, fish, birds, small pets, horses, and reptiles. The company serves its customers through its retail website, www.chewy.com, and its mobile applications and focuses on delivering exceptional customer service, a large selection of high-quality pet food, treats and supplies, price, convenience (including Chewy's Autoship subscription program), fast shipping, and hassle-free returns.

Dollar General Corporation

Dollar General is a discount retailer. The company's consumables products includes paper and cleaning products, packaged food, perishables, snacks, health and beauty, pet, and tobacco products. The company's seasonal products include decorations, toys, batteries, small electronics, greeting cards, stationery, prepaid phones and accessories, gardening supplies, hardware, automotive and home office supplies. The company's home products include kitchen supplies, cookware, small appliances, light bulbs, storage containers, frames, candles, craft supplies and kitchen, bed and bath soft goods. The company's apparel includes casual everyday apparel, as well as socks, underwear, disposable diapers, shoes and accessories.

Electronic Arts Inc.

Electronic Arts develops, markets, publishes and distributes games, content and services that can be played and watched on a variety of platforms, including game consoles, personal computers, and mobile phones. The company markets and sells its games and services through digital distribution channels and through retail channels. Digitally, the company's console games and services can be purchased through third-party storefronts. In its games and services, the company utilizes brands that it either wholly own or license from others. The company develops and publishes games and services across genres. Within and alongside its games, the company provides live services, including in-game purchases, downloadable content, and esports.

General Mills Inc.

General Mills manufactures and markets branded consumer foods. The company's segments are: North America Retail, which provides cereals, refrigerated yogurt, soup, meal kits, dessert and baking mixes, frozen pizza and pizza snacks, grain, fruit and savory snacks, and organic products, among others; Convenience Stores and Foodservice, which provides snacks, yogurt, frozen meals and frozen dough products, and baking mixes, among others; Europe and Australia, which includes retail and foodservice businesses in the Europe and Australia region; Asia and Latin America, which consists of retail and foodservice businesses in the Asia and South America regions; and Pets, which includes pet food products.

H&R Block Inc.

H&R Block provides assisted, do-it-yourself, and virtual tax return preparation solutions through various channels (including in-person, online and mobile applications, virtual, and desktop software) and distributes the company-branded products and services to the general public in the U.S., Canada, Australia, and their respective territories. The company also provides additional services, such as Refund Transfers, its Peace of Mind? Extended Service Plan (POM), H&R Block Emerald Prepaid Mastercard?, H&R Block Emerald Advance? lines of credit, Tax Identity Shield?, and Refund Advance loans. For its Canadian clients the company also provides POM, H&R Block Instant Refund?, and H&R Block Pay With Refund? services.

HP Inc.

HP is a provider of personal computing and other access devices, imaging and printing products, and related technologies, solutions and services. The company's segments are: Personal Systems, which provides commercial and consumer desktop and notebook personal computers, workstations, thin clients, commercial mobility devices, retail point-of-sale systems, displays and other related accessories, software, support and services; Printing, which provides consumer and commercial printer hardware, supplies, solutions and services, as well as scanning devices; and Corporate Investments, which includes HP Labs and certain business incubation and investment projects.

Jabil Inc.

Jabil is a provider of manufacturing services and solutions. The company provides electronics design, production and product management services to companies in various industries and end markets. The company's manufacturing and supply chain management services and solutions include design, planning, fabrication and assembly, delivery and managing the flow of resources and products. The company's segments include: Electronics Manufacturing Services, which utilizes information technology, supply chain design and engineering, technologies centered on primary electronics; and Diversified Manufacturing Services, which provides engineering solutions, with a focus on material sciences, technologies and healthcare.

Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated

Jones Lang LaSalle is a professional services firm that engages in real estate and investment management. The company delivers an array of services across four business segments. The company manage its Real Estate Services offerings across three geographic business segments: the Americas, Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA), and Asia Pacific, and the company manages its investment management business globally as LaSalle Investment Management. In its Americas, EMEA and Asia Pacific operating segments, the company provides a range of leasing, capital markets, integrated property and facility management, project management, advisory, consulting, valuations and digital solutions services.

McCormick & Company Incorporated

McCormick & Co. manufactures, markets and distributes spices, seasoning mixes, condiments and other flavor products to the food industry- retailers, food manufacturers and foodservice businesses. The company also is partner in a number of joint ventures that are involved in the manufacture and sale of flavor products. The company's business segments comprised of: consumer, in which the company markets its products to customers and supplies private label items, known as store brands; and flavor solutions, which provides a range of flavor solutions including seasoning blends, spices and herbs, condiments, coating systems and compound flavors.

Monster Beverage Corporation

Monster Beverage is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company develops, markets, sells and distributes energy drink beverages and concentrates for energy drink beverages. The company has the following operating and reportable segments: Monster Energy? Drinks segment, which is primarily comprised of the company's Monster Energy? drinks and Reign Total Body Fuel? energy drinks; Strategic Brands segment, which is comprised primarily of the various energy drink brands from The Coca-Cola Company, as well as its energy drinks; and Other segment, which is comprised of certain prod ucts sold by American Fruits and Flavors, LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary, to independent third-party customers.

NIKE Inc. Class B

NIKE is engaged in the design, development and marketing and selling of athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, accessories and services. The company focuses its NIKE Brand product offerings in Running, NIKE Basketball, the Jordan Brand, Football (Soccer), Training and Sportswear categories. The company markets products designed for kids, as well as for other athletic and recreational uses such as American football, baseball, cricket, golf, lacrosse, tennis, walking, and other outdoor activities. The company has license agreements that permit unaffiliated parties to manufacture and sell, using the company-owned trademarks, certain apparel, digital devices and applications and other equipment designed for sports activities.

Paychex Inc.

Paychex is a provider of integrated human capital management (HCM) solutions for payroll, benefits, human resource (HR), and insurance services for small- to medium-sized businesses. The company's portfolio of HCM and employee benefit-related services include: payroll processing services; payroll tax administration services; employee payment services; regulatory compliance services (new-hire reporting and garnishment processing); HR Solutions Administrative Services Organization; retirement services administration; HR administration services, including time and attendance; other HR services and products; business services; Professional Employer Organization services; and insurance services.

Snowflake Inc. Class A

Synopsys Inc.

Synopsys is a supplier of electronic design automation (EDA) software that engineers use to design and test integrated circuits. The company also provides semiconductor intellectual property products, which are pre-designed circuits that engineers use as components of larger chip designs rather than designing those circuits themselves. The company provides software and hardware used to validate the electronic systems that incorporate chips and the software that runs on them. The company is also a provider of software tools and services that improve the security and quality of software code in a variety of industries, including electronics, financial services, media, automotive, medicine, energy and industrials.

TD SYNNEX CORP

Synnex is a business process services company, providing a range of distribution, logistics and integration services for the technology industry and providing outsourced services focused on customer engagement to a range of enterprises. The company's segments are: Technology Solutions, which distributes peripherals, information technologysystems including data center server and storage solutions, system components, software, networking, communications and security equipment; and Concentrix, which provides a portfolio of solutions and business services focused on customer engagement, process optimization, technology innovation, front and back-office automation and business transformation to clients.

Veeva Systems Inc Class A

Veeva Systems provides industry cloud solutions for the life sciences industry. Veeva Commercial Cloud is a suite of multichannel customer relationship management applications, a commercial data warehouse, territory allocation and alignment applications, master data management applications and customer reference and data and services. Veeva Vault is the company's suite of cloud-based, enterprise content management applications that address the content management requirements for the company's customers'commercial functions, including medical and sales and marketing, and key research and development functions, including clinical, regulatory, quality, and, when available, safety.

Zoetis Inc. Class A

Zoetis is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the discovery, development, manufacture and commercialization of animal health medicines, vaccines, and diagnostic products with a focus on both livestock and companion animals. The company operates in two segments: the United States and International. The company's main product categories are vaccines, anti-infectives, parasiticides, other pharmaceutical products, dermatology products, medicated feed additives, and animal health diagnostics. The company's other non-pharmaceutical product categories include nutritionals and agribusiness, as well as products and services including biodevices, genetic tests and precision livestock farming.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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