Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2020 02 11

PANW currently trades above recent averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 38.2x Uniform P/E. Even at these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to decline from 43% in 2019 to 30% in 2024, accompanied by 20% Uniform Asset growth going forward. Meanwhile, Analysts have similar expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to decline to 31% by 2021, accompanied by 23% Uniform Asset growth. However, management is confident about their positioning, billings, and cloud security trends. Current valuations appear to be pricing in overly bearish expectations for PANW, and should they just maintain profitability near current levels, as positive management sentiment suggests, significant upside would be warranted.
MPC Q3 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA contraction, but management is confident about their opportunities, production, and synergies

UBER Q3 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for a material positive inflection in Uniform ROA, but management may be concerned about costs, profitability, and Uber Eats

ACN Q1 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA compression, but management is confident about growth, their business strategy, and acquisitions
PANW, ACN, MPC, UBER, AMD, CRM, CRUS, CTAS, DHI, EXC, GNRC, GPN, JBL, LRCX, LVS, ORCL, OXY, PSA, VLO, YELP
Underlyings
Accenture Plc Class A

Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

Advanced Micro Devices is a semiconductor company. The company primarily provides x86 microprocessors, as standalone devices or as incorporated into an accelerated processing unit, chipsets, graphics processing units (GPUs), data center and personnel GPUs, and development services; server and embedded processors, semi-custom System-on-Chip products, development services and technology for game consoles. The company also licenses portions of its intellectual property portfolio. The company's segments are: Computing and Graphics, which consists of desktop, notebooks, commercial, and chipsets products; and Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom, which includes server processors, and embedded P\processors products.

Cintas Corporation

Cintas is a provider of corporate identity uniforms through rental and sales programs, as well as a provider of related business services, including entrance mats, restroom cleaning services and supplies, carpet and tile cleaning services, first aid and safety services and fire protection products and services. The company's segments are Uniform Rental and Facility Services, which consists of the rental and servicing of uniforms and other garments, including flame resistant clothing, mats, mops and shop towels and other ancillary items; and The First Aid and Safety Services, which consists of first aid and safety products and services.

Cirrus Logic Inc.

Cirrus Logic focuses on low-power integrated circuits (ICs) for audio, voice and other signal-processing applications. The company's product lines include: Portable Products, including codecs, which are chips that integrate analog-to-digital converters (ADCs) and digital-to-analog converters (DACs) into a single IC, smart codecs, which are codecs with digital signal processing integrated, amplifiers, micro-electromechanical systems microphones, haptic drivers, standalone digital signal processors, and its SoundClear? technology, which includes a portfolio of tools, software and algorithms; and Non-Portable and Other Products, which include ICs, codecs, ADCs, DACs, digital interfaces and amplifiers.

D.R. Horton Inc.

D.R. Horton is a homebuilding company. The company's business operations consist of homebuilding, a majority-owned residential lot development company, financial services and other activities. The company's financial services operations provide mortgage financing and title agency services to homebuyers in its homebuilding markets. The company's subsidiary, DHI Mortgage, provides mortgage financing services primarily to its homebuyers and generally sells the mortgages it originates and the related servicing rights to third-party purchasers. The company's subsidiary title companies serve as title insurance agents by providing title insurance policies, examination and closing services, primarily to its homebuyers.

Exelon Corporation

Exelon is a utility services holding company engaged in the generation, delivery and marketing of energy through Exelon Generation Company, LLC and the energy distribution and transmission businesses through Commonwealth Edison Company, PECO Energy Company, Baltimore Gas and Electric Company, Potomac Electric Power Company, Delmarva Power & Light Company and Atlantic City Electric Company. Through its business services subsidiary Exelon Business Services Company, LLC, the company provides its subsidiaries with a variety of support services.

Generac Holdings Inc.

Generac Holdings is a designer and manufacturer of a range of power generation equipment and other power products serving the residential, light commercial and industrial markets. The company's products include residential, commercial and industrial standby generators, as well as portable and mobile generators used in a range of applications. Other engine powered products that the company designs and manufactures include light towers which provide temporary lighting for various end markets; commercial and industrial mobile heaters and pumps used in the oil and gas, construction and other industrial markets; and a product line of outdoor power equipment for residential and commercial use.

Global Payments Inc.

Global Payments is a pure play payment technology company providing payments and software solutions to merchants and financial institutions. The company has three segments: Merchant Solutions, which includes authorization services, chargeback resolution, and payment security services; Issuer Solutions, which provides solutions that enable financial institutions and other financial service providers to manage their card portfolios and reduces technical difficulty and overhead on a single platform; and Business and Consumer Solutions, which provides general purpose reloadable prepaid debit and payroll cards, demand deposit accounts and other financial service solutions through its Netspend? brand.

Jabil Inc.

Jabil is a provider of manufacturing services and solutions. The company provides electronics design, production and product management services to companies in various industries and end markets. The company's manufacturing and supply chain management services and solutions include design, planning, fabrication and assembly, delivery and managing the flow of resources and products. The company's segments include: Electronics Manufacturing Services, which utilizes information technology, supply chain design and engineering, technologies centered on primary electronics; and Diversified Manufacturing Services, which provides engineering solutions, with a focus on material sciences, technologies and healthcare.

Lam Research Corporation

Lam Research is a supplier of wafer fabrication equipment and services to the semiconductor industry. The company designs, manufactures, markets, refurbishes, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the fabrication of integrated circuits. The company's customer base includes semiconductor memory, foundry, and integrated device manufacturers that make products such as non-volatile memory, dynamic random-access memory, and logic devices. The company's services include customer service, spares, improvement, and refurbishment of its deposition, etch, and clean products. The company sells its products and services to companies in the United States, China, Europe, Japan, Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan.

Las Vegas Sands Corp.

Las Vegas Sands is a developer of destination properties (Integrated Resorts) that feature accommodations, gaming, entertainment and retail malls, convention and exhibition facilities, restaurants and other amenities. The company owns and operates Integrated Resorts in Asia and the United States. Through its ownership of Sands China Ltd., the company owns and operates properties including The Venetian Macao Resort Hotel, Sands Cotai Central, The Parisian Macao, The Plaza Macao and Four Seasons Hotel Macao, Cotai Strip, and the Sands Macao. In Singapore, the company owns and operates the Marina Bay Sands. The company's Las Vegas Operating Properties includes The Venetian Resort Las Vegas and the Sands Expo Center.

Marathon Petroleum Corporation

Marathon Petroleum is an independent petroleum refining and marketing, retail and midstream company. The company's segments include: Refining and Marketing, which refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries, purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products; Retail, which sells transportation fuels and convenience products in the retail market across the U.S.; and Midstream, which transports, stores, distributes and markets crude oil and refined products via refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats and barges, gathers, processes and transports natural gas, and gathers, transports, fractionates, stores and markets natural gas liquids.

Occidental Petroleum Corporation

Occidental Petroleum has three reporting segments: oil and gas, which explores for, develops and produces oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGL) and natural gas; chemical, which mainly manufactures and markets basic chemicals (chlorine, caustic soda, chlorinated organics, potassium chemicals, ethylene dichloride, chlorinated isocyanurates, sodium silicates and calcium chloride) and vinyls (vinyl chloride monomer, polyvinyl chloride and ethylene); and marketing and midstream, which purchases, markets, gathers, processes, transports and stores oil, condensate, NGL, natural gas, carbon dioxide and power.

Oracle Corporation

Oracle provides products and services that address enterprise information technology (IT) environments. The company's products and services include applications and infrastructure offerings. The company's cloud and license business engages in the sale, marketing and delivery of its applications and infrastructure technologies through cloud and on-premise deployment models including its cloud services and license support offerings; and its cloud license and on-premise license offerings. The company's hardware business provides Oracle Engineered Systems, servers, storage, industry-specific hardware, operating systems, virtualization, management and other hardware-related software to support diverse IT environments.

Palo Alto Networks Inc.

Palo Alto Networks provides a platform that allows enterprises, service providers, and government entities to secure their organizations. The company's platform uses a traffic classification engine that identifies network traffic by application, user, and content and provides security across the network, endpoint, and cloud. The company's product, subscription, and support offerings include: firewall appliances and software; and Panorama, which is a centralized security management solution for global control of various firewall appliances and software deployed on an end-customer's network as well as in their instances in public or private cloud environments as a virtual appliance or a physical appliance.

Public Storage

Public Storage is a real estate investment trust. The company's business activities include: Self-storage Operations, which acquires, develops, owns and operates self-storage facilities that provide storage spaces for lease on a month-to-month basis, for personal and business use; Ancillary Operations, which reinsures policies against losses to goods stored by customers in the company's self-storage facilities and sells merchandise, mainly locks and cardboard boxes, at its self-storage facilities; and Investment in PS Business Parks Inc. (PSB), in which the company has an equity interest in PSB that owns, operates, acquires and develops commercial properties, mainly multi-tenant flex, office, and industrial parks.

Salesforce.com inc.

Salesforce.Com is engaged in customer relationship management technology. The company's Customer 360 is an integrated platform that unites sales, service, marketing, commerce, integration, analytics and more to give companies a single, shared view of their customers. Through its platform and other developer tools, the company also enables third parties to develop additional functionality and applications, or apps, that run on its platform, which are sold separately from or in conjunction with the company's service offerings. The company's cloud service offerings include sales cloud, service cloud, marketing and commerce cloud, and salesforce platform and other.

Uber Technologies Inc.

Uber Technologies provides ride hailing services. The company develops application for road transportation, navigation, ride sharing, and payment processing solutions. The company serves customers in the United States and Canada, Latin America, Europe, Middle East, and Asia Pacific markets, excluding its discontinued China operations.

Valero Energy Corporation

Valero Energy is an international manufacturer and marketer of transportation fuels and petrochemical products. The company's segments include: Refining, which includes its refining operations, the associated marketing activities, and logistics assets that support its refining operations; Ethanol, which includes its ethanol operations, the associated marketing activities, and logistics assets that support its ethanol operations; and Renewable Diesel, which includes the operations of its joint ventture, Diamond Green Diesel Holdings LLC, which owns and operates a renewable diesel plant in Norco, LA.

Yelp Inc

Yelp provides a platform to both consumers and businesses by helping each discover and interact with the other. The reviews contributed to the company's platform cover a set of local business categories, including restaurants, shopping, beauty and fitness, arts, entertainment and events, home and local services, health, nightlife, travel and hotel, auto and other categories. The company provides a range of free and paid advertising products to businesses of all sizes, including the ability to deliver targeted search advertising to large local audiences through its website and mobile app. The company also provides several features and consumer-interactive tools.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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