Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2020 10 27

SNX currently trades below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 14.3x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to decline from 18% in 2019 to 9% in 2024, accompanied by 8% Uniform asset growth going forward. However, analysts have less bearish expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to remain at 17%-18% levels through 2021, accompanied by 2% Uniform asset shrinkage. Furthermore, management is confident about their revenue, liquidity, and clients' needs. Current valuations appear to be pricing in overly bearish expectations for SNX, and if the company is able to maintain current profitability levels, material upside may be warranted.

COST Q4 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to reach new peaks, but management may be concerned about margins, costs, and international stores

SHW Q2 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to reach new peaks, but management may have concerns about guidance, growth, and their global operations

OHI Q2 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to continue fading, but management may be concerned about liquidity, occupancy, and investments

SNX, COST, OHI, SHW, ACN, AMZN, APA, CAG, CNC, CRM, EPR, FTI, HES, IAC, JW.A, KFY, NWL, PUMP, VSAT, YUMC
Underlyings
Accenture Plc Class A

Amazon.com Inc.

Amazon.com serves consumers through its online and physical stores. The company also manufactures and sells electronic devices, including Kindle, Fire tablet, Fire TV, Echo, and Ring, and the company develops and produces media content. The company operates customer service centers and provides programs that enable sellers to grow their businesses, sell their products in its stores, and fulfill orders through the company The company serves developers and enterprises of various sizes, including start-ups, government agencies, and academic institutions, through its Amazon Web Services segment, which provides a set of global compute, storage, database, and other service offerings. The company also provides services, such as advertising.

APA Corp.

Apache is an independent energy company that explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids. The company had exploration and production operations in United States, Egypt, and offshore United Kingdom in the North Sea. The company also has exploration interests in Suriname. The company markets its United States crude oil production to main oil companies, marketing, and transportation companies, and refiners based on a West Texas Intermediate price or other regional pricing indices. The company has two international regions: The Egypt includes onshore conventional assets in Egypt's Western Desert. The North Sea region includes offshore assets based in United Kingdom.

Centene Corporation

Centene is an insurance holding company. The company's Managed Care segment provides health plan coverage to individuals through government subsidized programs. The company also provides a variety of individual, small group, and large group commercial healthcare products, both to employers and directly to members in the Managed Care segment. The company's Specialty Services segment consists of the company's specialty companies prviding healthcare services and products to state programs, correctional facilities, healthcare organizations, employer groups and other commercial organizations, as well as to its own subsidiaries. The Specialty Service segment also includes the Government Contracts business.

Conagra Brands Inc.

Conagra Brands is a packaged goods food company. The company's segments are: Grocery and Snacks, which includes branded, shelf stable food products sold in various retail channels; Refrigerated and Frozen, which includes branded, temperature controlled food products sold in various retail channels; International, which includes branded food products sold in retail and foodservice channels outside of the U.S.; Foodservice, which includes customized food products for sale to restaurants and other foodservice establishments; Pinnacle Foods, which includes and private-label food products; and Commercial Foods, which included commercially branded and private label food and ingredients, among others.

Costco Wholesale Corporation

Costco Wholesale and its subsidiaries are principally engaged in the operation of membership warehouses based on the concept of providing its members low prices on a selection of nationally branded and private-label products. The company's merchandise are: food and sundries, which include dry foods, packaged foods, and groceries, snack foods, candy, alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages, and cleaning supplies; hardlines, which include appliances, electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, and garden and patio; fresh food, which include meat, produce, deli, and bakery; softlines, which include apparel and small appliances; and ancillary, which include gas stations and pharmacy businesses.

EPR Properties

EPR Properties is a self-administered real estate investment trust. The company's real estate portfolio consist of investments in its Experiential and Education reportable segments. The Experiential segment includes the following property types: theatres, eat & play (including seven theatres located in entertainment districts), attractions, ski, experiential lodging, gaming, cultural and fitness & wellness. The Education segment includes the following property types: early childhood education centers and private schools.

Hess Corporation

Hess is a global exploration and production company engaged in exploration, development, production, transportation, purchase and sale of crude oil, natural gas liquid (NGL), and natural gas with production operations located primarily in the United States, Guyana, the Malaysia/Thailand Joint Development Area, Malaysia and Denmark. The company's Midstream operating segment provides fee-based services, including gathering, compressing and processing natural gas and fractionating NGL; gathering, terminaling, loading and transporting crude oil and NGL; storing and terminaling propane, and water handling services primarily in the Bakken shale play in the Williston Basin area of North Dakota.

IAC/InteractiveCorp.

John Wiley & Sons Inc. Class A

John Wiley & Sons is a global research and learning company. Co. has three segments: Research segment, which provides scientific, technical, medical, and scholarly journals, as well as related content and services to libraries and individual researchers, among others; Publishing, which provides scientific, professional, and education books and related content in print and digital formats, test preparation services and course workflow tools, to libraries, corporations, students, professionals, and researchers; and Solutions, which provides online program management services for higher education institutions and learning, development, and assessment services for businesses and professionals.

Korn Ferry

Korn Ferry is an organizational consulting firm. The company is engaged in the business of giving client awareness to its range of talent management solutions. The company's segments include: Executive Search, in which the company's services are used to fill executive-level positions, such as board directors, chief executive officers, chief operating officers, chief information officers, chief human resource officers and other senior executive officers; Advisory, which helps clients design their organization and shows them the way to compensate, develop and motivate their people; and RPO and Professional Search, which combines people, process personnel and intellectual property enabled technology.

Newell Brands Inc

Newell Brands is a global marketer of consumer and commercial products. The company's segments include: Appliances and Cookware, which designs, manufactures, sources, markets and distributes a various line of household products; Food and Commercial, which designs, manufactures, sources, markets and distributes a various line of household products; Home and Outdoor Living, which designs, manufactures, sources, markets and distributes home fragrance and home security products; and Learning and Development, which designs, manufactures, sources, markets and distributes writing instruments, including markers and highlighters, pens and pencils.

Omega Healthcare Investors Inc.

Omega Healthcare Investors is a real estate investment trust. The company has one reportable segment consisting of investments in healthcare-related real estate properties located in the United States and the United Kingdom. The company's main business is to provide financing and capital to the long-term healthcare industry with a particular focus on skilled nursing facilities, and assisted living facilities, and to a lesser extent, independent living facilities, and rehabilitation and acute care facilities and medical office buildings. The company's main portfolio consists of long-term leases and mortgage agreements.

ProPetro Holding Corp.

ProPetro Holding is a holding company. Through its subsidiary, the company is engaged as an oilfield services company providing hydraulic fracturing and other services to upstream oil and gas companies engaged in the exploration and production of North American unconventional oil and natural gas resources. The company's operations are primarily focused in the Permian Basin. In addition to its core hydraulic fracturing operations, the company provides complementary well completion and production services, including cementing, coiled tubing, flowback services and drilling. The company conducts its business through five segments: hydraulic fracturing (inclusive of acidizing), cementing, coil tubing, flowback and drilling.

Salesforce.com inc.

Salesforce.Com is engaged in customer relationship management technology. The company's Customer 360 is an integrated platform that unites sales, service, marketing, commerce, integration, analytics and more to give companies a single, shared view of their customers. Through its platform and other developer tools, the company also enables third parties to develop additional functionality and applications, or apps, that run on its platform, which are sold separately from or in conjunction with the company's service offerings. The company's cloud service offerings include sales cloud, service cloud, marketing and commerce cloud, and salesforce platform and other.

Sherwin-Williams Company

Sherwin-Williams is engaged in the development, manufacture, distribution and sale of paint, coatings and related products to industrial, commercial and retail customers. The company's segments are: The Americas Group, which markets and sells Sherwin-Williams? and other controlled brand architectural paint and coatings, protective and marine products, OEM product finishes and related products; Consumer Brands Group, which supplies architectural paints, stains, varnishes, and industrial products, among others; and Performance Coatings Group, which develops and sells industrial coatings, automotive refinish, protective and marine coatings, coil coatings, packaging coatings and resins and colorants.

TD SYNNEX CORP

Synnex is a business process services company, providing a range of distribution, logistics and integration services for the technology industry and providing outsourced services focused on customer engagement to a range of enterprises. The company's segments are: Technology Solutions, which distributes peripherals, information technologysystems including data center server and storage solutions, system components, software, networking, communications and security equipment; and Concentrix, which provides a portfolio of solutions and business services focused on customer engagement, process optimization, technology innovation, front and back-office automation and business transformation to clients.

TechnipFMC Plc

TechnipFMC is global leader in oil and gas projects, technologies, systems, and services. Co. offers subsea, surface, onshore, and offshore solutions for oil and gas projects. Co. serves customers worldwide. With Co.'s technologies and production systems, integrated expertise, and comprehensive solutions, Co. is transforming Co.'s clients' project economics. Co. is uniquely positioned to deliver greater efficiency across project lifecycles from concept to project delivery and beyond. Through innovative technologies and improved efficiencies, Co.'s offering unlocks new possibilities for Co.'s clients in developing their oil and gas resources.

ViaSat Inc.

ViaSat is a provider of broadband technologies and services. The company conducts its business through three segments: satellite services, which provides satellite-based broadband services to consumers, enterprises, and mobile broadband customers; commercial networks, which develops and produces a variety of satellite and wireless products, systems and solutions that enable the provision of fixed and mobile broadband services; and government systems, which provides global mobile broadband services to military and government users, and develops and produces network-centric Internet Protocol-based fixed and mobile communications products and solutions.

Yum China Holdings Inc.

Yum China Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a restaurant company in the People's Republic of China (China). The company's restaurant base consists of restaurant concepts, including KFC, Pizza Hut brands, as well as brands such as East Dawning, Little Sheep, Taco Bell and COFFii & JOY. The company has the right to operate and sublicense the KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell brands in China (excluding Hong Kong, Taiwan and Macau), and own the intellectual property of the East Dawning, Little Sheep and COFFii & JOY concepts outright. Most restaurants in the KFC, Pizza Hut, East Dawning, Taco Bell and COFFii & JOY concepts provide delivery service.

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In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

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Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

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  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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