Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2020 05 19

LVS currently trades above corporate averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 47.4x Uniform P/E (Fwd V/E'). Even at these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to decline from 16% in 2019 to 12% in 2024, accompanied by 1% Uniform asset growth going forward. Meanwhile, analysts have similar expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to only rebound to 13% in 2021 after a poor 2020, accompanied by 2% Uniform asset shrinkage. That said, management is confident about Macao revenue growth, their Singapore investments, and cost controls. Current valuations appear to be pricing in overly pessimistic expectations for LVS, and should the firm just maintain current profitability levels as positive management sentiment suggests, upside would be warranted.

CAG Q3 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to expand to new highs, but management appears concerned about their performance, COVID-19, and investments
EW Q1 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to expand, but management appears concerned about procedures, TAVR, and costs

FRT Q4 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to improve, but management may have concerns about bankruptcies, growth, and their developments

LVS, CAG, EW, FRT, ADT, AYI, CHRW, COST, FB, GNRC, GRMN, HCA, HSIC, KMI, KMX, LRCX, SHW, SONO, STZ, V
Underlyings
Acuity Brands Inc.

Acuity Brands is a provider of lighting and building management solutions and services for commercial, institutional, industrial, infrastructure, and residential applications. The company's lighting and building management solutions include devices such as luminaires, lighting controls, controllers for various building systems, power supplies, prismatic skylights, and drivers, as well as integrated systems designed for various indoor and outdoor applications. In addition, the company provides services across applications that primarily relate to monitoring and controlling lighting and building management systems through network technologies and the commissioning of control systems.

ADT Inc

ADT is a provider of monitored security and interactive home and business automation solutions in the United States and Canada. The company's monitored security and automation offerings involve the installation and monitoring of security and premises automation systems designed to detect intrusion; control access; sense movement, smoke, fire, carbon monoxide, flooding, temperature, and other environmental conditions and hazards; and address personal emergencies. The company's products and services include interactive technologies to allow its customers to remotely monitor and manage their residential and commercial environments by adding automation capabilities to its monitored security systems.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.

Robinson (C.H.) Worldwide is a third party logistics company. The company provides freight transportation services and logistics solutions to companies. The company's segments are: North American Surface Transportation, which provides freight transportation services across North America through a network of offices; and Global Forwarding, which provides global logistics services through an international network of offices and also contracts with independent agents; and All Other and Corporate, which includes Robinson Fresh? that provides sourcing services including the buying, selling, and marketing of fresh fruits, vegetables, and other perishable items, and managed services that provides Managed TMS?.

CarMax Inc.

CarMax is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged as a retailer of used vehicles. The company operates in two segments: CarMax Sales Operations, which sells used vehicles, purchases used vehicles from customers and other sources, sells related products and services, and arranges financing options for customers; and CarMax Auto Finance, which consists of finance operation that provides vehicle financing to customer buying retail vehicles from the company The company's products and services include retail merchandising, wholesale auctions, extended protection plans, reconditioning and service, and customer credit.

Conagra Brands Inc.

Conagra Brands is a packaged goods food company. The company's segments are: Grocery and Snacks, which includes branded, shelf stable food products sold in various retail channels; Refrigerated and Frozen, which includes branded, temperature controlled food products sold in various retail channels; International, which includes branded food products sold in retail and foodservice channels outside of the U.S.; Foodservice, which includes customized food products for sale to restaurants and other foodservice establishments; Pinnacle Foods, which includes and private-label food products; and Commercial Foods, which included commercially branded and private label food and ingredients, among others.

Constellation Brands Inc. Class A

Constellation Brands is an international beverage alcohol company. The company is a producer and marketer of beer, wine and spirits with operations in the U.S., Mexico, New Zealand, Italy and Canada. The company has two segments: Beer, in which the company is engaged in the U.S. beer market that includes the imported, craft, domestic super premium, and alternative beverage alcohol categories and it has the right to import, market and sell these Mexican beer brands in the U.S.; and Wine and Spirits, in which its wine portfolio is supported by grapes purchased from independent growers, primarily in the U.S., New Zealand and Chile, and vineyard holdings in the U.S., New Zealand and Italy.

Costco Wholesale Corporation

Costco Wholesale and its subsidiaries are principally engaged in the operation of membership warehouses based on the concept of providing its members low prices on a selection of nationally branded and private-label products. The company's merchandise are: food and sundries, which include dry foods, packaged foods, and groceries, snack foods, candy, alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages, and cleaning supplies; hardlines, which include appliances, electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, and garden and patio; fresh food, which include meat, produce, deli, and bakery; softlines, which include apparel and small appliances; and ancillary, which include gas stations and pharmacy businesses.

EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORP

Edwards Lifesciences is engaged in patient-focused medical for structural heart disease, as well as critical care and surgical monitoring. The company is a manufacturer of heart valve systems and repair products used to replace or repair a patient's diseased or defective heart valve. The company is also engaged in hemodynamic and noninvasive brain and tissue oxygenation monitoring systems used to measure a patient's cardiovascular function in the hospital setting. The company's products and technologies are categorized into four main areas: Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement, Transcatheter Mitral and Tricuspid Therapies, Surgical Structural Heart, and Critical Care.

Facebook Inc. Class A

Facebook is building and engaging products that enable people to connect and share with friends and family through mobile devices, personal computers, virtual reality headsets, and in-home devices. The company's products include: Facebook, which enables people to connect, share, discover, and communicate with each other on mobile devices and personal computers; Instagram, which is a place where people can express themselves through photos, videos, and private messaging, and explore their interests in businesses, creators and communities; Messenger and WhatsApp, which are messaging applications; and Oculus, which connects people through its Oculus virtual reality products.

Federal Realty Investment Trust

Federal Realty Investment Trust is an equity real estate investment trust that focuses on the ownership, management, and redevelopment of retail and mixed-use properties located primarily in communities in selected metropolitan markets in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States, as well as in California and South Florida. The company owns or has a majority interest in community and neighborhood shopping centers and mixed-use properties which are operated as predominantly retail real estate projects.

Garmin Ltd.

Generac Holdings Inc.

Generac Holdings is a designer and manufacturer of a range of power generation equipment and other power products serving the residential, light commercial and industrial markets. The company's products include residential, commercial and industrial standby generators, as well as portable and mobile generators used in a range of applications. Other engine powered products that the company designs and manufactures include light towers which provide temporary lighting for various end markets; commercial and industrial mobile heaters and pumps used in the oil and gas, construction and other industrial markets; and a product line of outdoor power equipment for residential and commercial use.

HCA Healthcare Inc

HCA Healthcare is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, partnerships and joint ventures, the company owns and operates hospitals and related health care entities. Most of the company's general, acute care hospitals provide medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic services and emergency services. The general, acute care hospitals also provide outpatient services such as outpatient surgery, laboratory, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology and physical therapy. The company's psychiatric hospitals provide therapeutic programs including child, adolescent and adult psychiatric care, adolescent and adult alcohol and drug abuse treatment and counseling.

Henry Schein Inc.

Schein (Henry) provides health care products and services to office-based dental and medical practitioners. The health care distribution segment distributes consumable products, small equipment, laboratory products, large equipment, equipment repair services, branded and generic pharmaceuticals, vaccines, surgical products, diagnostic tests, infection-control products and vitamins. The company's technology group offerings include practice management software systems for dental and medical practitioners. The company's practice solutions include financial services on a non-recourse basis, e-services, practice technology, network and hardware services, and continuing education services for practitioners.

Kinder Morgan Inc Class P

Kinder Morgan is an energy infrastructure company. The company's segments are: Natural Gas Pipelines, which includes the ownership and operation of, among others, main interstate and intrastate natural gas pipeline and storage systems; Products Pipelines, which includes the refined petroleum products, crude oil and condensate pipelines; Terminals, which includes the ownership and/or operation of, among others, liquids and bulk terminal facilities; and carbon dioxide (CO2), which includes the production, transportation and marketing of CO2, ownership interests in and/or operation of oil fields and gasoline processing plants in West Texas.

Lam Research Corporation

Lam Research is a supplier of wafer fabrication equipment and services to the semiconductor industry. The company designs, manufactures, markets, refurbishes, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the fabrication of integrated circuits. The company's customer base includes semiconductor memory, foundry, and integrated device manufacturers that make products such as non-volatile memory, dynamic random-access memory, and logic devices. The company's services include customer service, spares, improvement, and refurbishment of its deposition, etch, and clean products. The company sells its products and services to companies in the United States, China, Europe, Japan, Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan.

Las Vegas Sands Corp.

Las Vegas Sands is a developer of destination properties (Integrated Resorts) that feature accommodations, gaming, entertainment and retail malls, convention and exhibition facilities, restaurants and other amenities. The company owns and operates Integrated Resorts in Asia and the United States. Through its ownership of Sands China Ltd., the company owns and operates properties including The Venetian Macao Resort Hotel, Sands Cotai Central, The Parisian Macao, The Plaza Macao and Four Seasons Hotel Macao, Cotai Strip, and the Sands Macao. In Singapore, the company owns and operates the Marina Bay Sands. The company's Las Vegas Operating Properties includes The Venetian Resort Las Vegas and the Sands Expo Center.

Sherwin-Williams Company

Sherwin-Williams is engaged in the development, manufacture, distribution and sale of paint, coatings and related products to industrial, commercial and retail customers. The company's segments are: The Americas Group, which markets and sells Sherwin-Williams? and other controlled brand architectural paint and coatings, protective and marine products, OEM product finishes and related products; Consumer Brands Group, which supplies architectural paints, stains, varnishes, and industrial products, among others; and Performance Coatings Group, which develops and sells industrial coatings, automotive refinish, protective and marine coatings, coil coatings, packaging coatings and resins and colorants.

Sonos

Sonos designs, develops, manufactures and sells multi-room audio products. The Sonos home sound system provides customers with a listening activity created by the design of its speakers and components, a proprietary software platform and the ability to stream content from a variety of sources over the customer's wireless network or over Bluetooth. The company's products are sold via third-party retail stores, including custom installers of home audio systems. The company also sells via select e-commerce retailers and its website sonos.com. The company's products are distributed through its wholly owned subsidiaries: Sonos Europe B.V., Beijing Sonos Technology Co., Ltd., Sonos Japan GK and Sonos Australia Pty Ltd.

Visa Inc. Class A

Visa is engaged in digital payments. The company facilitates payments between consumers and businesses. The company is focused on its proprietary network, VisaNet, to provide products and services. The company provides a portfolio of business payment solutions, including small business, corporate (travel) cards, purchasing cards, virtual cards/digital credentials, non-card cross-border business-to-business payment options and disbursement accounts, covering various main industry segments around the world. The company also provides several capabilities and services, including fraud prevention and security, processing, loyalty, merchant and digital solutions, consulting and data solutions.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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