Valens Equity Weekly Insights - 2022 11 29
Antero Resources (AR) has a low-cost, unhedged inventory of high quality natural gas. Uniform Accounting highlights what the company's returns could look like during a strong natural gas cycle, something that the market is not pricing in. That makes Antero a compelling buy.When natural gas prices have been above breakeven, Antero's Uniform ROA has historically gotten above 10%, as high as 22%. The company is set to get back to those levels in the current market, as has the capacity to extract most of its reserves with limited incremental investment, and hedge very little of its portfolio, betting on a strong natural gas market.
Antero's management is aligned to focus on profitable growth and careful leverage management, which should help management take advantage of the natural gas cycle without overinvesting.
Earnings Call Forensics of the Q3 earnings call highlights management's confidence about activating wells and managing debt, suggesting strong execution.
AR
Acuity Brands is a provider of lighting and building management solutions and services for commercial, institutional, industrial, infrastructure, and residential applications. The company's lighting and building management solutions include devices such as luminaires, lighting controls, controllers for various building systems, power supplies, prismatic skylights, and drivers, as well as integrated systems designed for various indoor and outdoor applications. In addition, the company provides services across applications that primarily relate to monitoring and controlling lighting and building management systems through network technologies and the commissioning of control systems.
In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:
- GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
- Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
- Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
- Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available
We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.
- Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
- Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
- Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
- The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming
The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.
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