Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2020 02 18

DAL currently trades below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 13.7x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to decline from 12% in 2018 to 9% by 2023, accompanied by 4% Uniform Asset growth going forward. However, analysts have more bullish expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to improve to 13% levels through 2020, accompanied by 3% Uniform Asset growth. Meanwhile, management is excited about business class pricing and their Boston terminal, and is confident about their volume investments. Current valuations appear to be pricing in overly bearish expectations for DAL, and should they just maintain profitability near current levels, as analysts expect, and positive management sentiment suggests, significant upside would be warranted.

ROST Q3 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to reach new peaks, but management may be concerned about store openings, costs, and growth
COST Q1 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for material Uniform ROA expansion, but management may be concerned about volume, China, and margins
SAFM Q4 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for improvements in Uniform ROA, but management may be concerned about growth, demand, and tariffs
DAL, COST, ROST, SAFM, AAPL, ADNT, APD, ARMK, DE, DG, DIS, JW.A, NBL, NKE, ORLY, ROP, SRE, TMUS, URI, XEL
Underlyings
Adient plc

Air Products and Chemicals Inc.

Air Products and Chemicals serves customers globally with a portfolio of products, services, and solutions that include atmospheric gases, process and other gases, equipment, and services. The company is a supplier of hydrogen and is engaged in helium and liquefied natural gas (LNG) process technology and equipment. The company also develops, engineers, builds, owns and operates industrial gas projects, including gasification projects that convert abundant natural resources into syngas for the production of power, fuels and chemicals. The company designs and manufactures equipment for air separation, hydrocarbon recovery and purification, LNG, and liquid helium and liquid hydrogen transport and storage.

Apple Inc.

Apple designs, manufactures and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related services. The company's products include: iPhone; Mac; iPad; and wearables, home and accessories, which includes AirPods?, Apple TV?, Apple Watch?, Beats? products, HomePod?, iPod touch? and other Apple-branded and third-party accessories. The company's services include: digital content stores and streaming services; AppleCare, which includes AppleCare + (AC+) and the AppleCare Protection Plan; iCloud, which is the company's cloud service; licensing; and other services, which include Apple Arcade?, Apple Card?, Apple News+, and Apple Pay, a cashless payment service.

Aramark

Aramark is a provider of food, facilities and uniform services. The company manages its Food and Support Services (FSS) business in segments split between its United States and International operations. The company's FSS segments manage a number of interrelated services-including food, hospitality, procurement and facility services-for school districts, colleges and universities, healthcare facilities, businesses, sports, entertainment and recreational venues, conference and convention centers, national and state parks and correctional institutions. The company's Uniform and Career Apparel segment provides employee uniform solution, including design, sourcing and manufacturing, delivery, cleaning and maintenance.

Costco Wholesale Corporation

Costco Wholesale and its subsidiaries are principally engaged in the operation of membership warehouses based on the concept of providing its members low prices on a selection of nationally branded and private-label products. The company's merchandise are: food and sundries, which include dry foods, packaged foods, and groceries, snack foods, candy, alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages, and cleaning supplies; hardlines, which include appliances, electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, and garden and patio; fresh food, which include meat, produce, deli, and bakery; softlines, which include apparel and small appliances; and ancillary, which include gas stations and pharmacy businesses.

Deere & Company

Deere & Co. operates the following segments: Agriculture and Turf, which manufactures and distributes a line of agriculture and turf equipment and related service parts, including utility tractors, tractor loaders, combines, cotton pickers, cotton strippers, and sugarcane harvesters; Construction and Forestry, which manufactures and distributes a range of machines and service parts used in construction, earthmoving, road building, material handling and timber harvesting, including backhoe loaders and crawler dozers and loaders; and Financial Services, which finances sales and leases by the company's dealers of new and used agriculture and turf equipment and construction and forestry equipment.

Delta Air Lines Inc.

Delta Air Lines provides scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo. The company serves the Transatlantic, Transpacific and Latin America markets directly on the company and through joint ventures with airline partners. Internationally, the company has hubs and market presence in Amsterdam, London-Heathrow, Mexico City, Paris-Charles de Gaulle and Seoul-Incheon. These arrangements are commercial joint ventures that include joint sales and marketing coordination, co-location of airport facilities and other commercial cooperation arrangements. The company has other businesses arising from its airline operations, including providing maintenance and engineering support for its regional aircraft.

Dollar General Corporation

Dollar General is a discount retailer. The company's consumables products includes paper and cleaning products, packaged food, perishables, snacks, health and beauty, pet, and tobacco products. The company's seasonal products include decorations, toys, batteries, small electronics, greeting cards, stationery, prepaid phones and accessories, gardening supplies, hardware, automotive and home office supplies. The company's home products include kitchen supplies, cookware, small appliances, light bulbs, storage containers, frames, candles, craft supplies and kitchen, bed and bath soft goods. The company's apparel includes casual everyday apparel, as well as socks, underwear, disposable diapers, shoes and accessories.

John Wiley & Sons Inc. Class A

John Wiley & Sons is a global research and learning company. Co. has three segments: Research segment, which provides scientific, technical, medical, and scholarly journals, as well as related content and services to libraries and individual researchers, among others; Publishing, which provides scientific, professional, and education books and related content in print and digital formats, test preparation services and course workflow tools, to libraries, corporations, students, professionals, and researchers; and Solutions, which provides online program management services for higher education institutions and learning, development, and assessment services for businesses and professionals.

NIKE Inc. Class B

NIKE is engaged in the design, development and marketing and selling of athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, accessories and services. The company focuses its NIKE Brand product offerings in Running, NIKE Basketball, the Jordan Brand, Football (Soccer), Training and Sportswear categories. The company markets products designed for kids, as well as for other athletic and recreational uses such as American football, baseball, cricket, golf, lacrosse, tennis, walking, and other outdoor activities. The company has license agreements that permit unaffiliated parties to manufacture and sell, using the company-owned trademarks, certain apparel, digital devices and applications and other equipment designed for sports activities.

Noble Energy Inc.

Noble Energy is an independent energy company, engaged in crude oil and natural gas exploration and production. The company's operating areas include: U.S. onshore, primarily the DJ Basin, Delaware Basin and Eagle Ford Shale; U.S. offshore Gulf of Mexico; Eastern Mediterranean; and West Africa. The company's Midstream segment develops, owns, operates and acquires domestic midstream infrastructure assets, or invests in other midstream entities, with existing focus areas being the DJ and Delaware Basins. The company's activities include geophysical and geological evaluation; analysis of commercial, regulatory and political risks; and exploratory and development drilling leading to production, where appropriate.

O'Reilly Automotive Inc.

O'Reilly Automotive is a retailer of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment and accessories, selling its products to both do-it-yourself and service provider customers. The company's stores carry a product line, including: new and remanufactured automotive hard parts and maintenance items, such as alternators, batteries, brake system components, belts, chassis parts, driveline parts, engine parts, fuel pumps, hoses, starters, temperature control, water pumps, antifreeze, appearance products, engine additives, filters, fluids, lighting, oil and wiper blades; and accessories, such as floor mats, seat covers and truck accessories.

ROPER TECHNOLOGIES INC.

Roper Technologies designs and develops software and engineered products and solutions for a variety of end markets. The company has four segments: Application Software, which includes Aderant, CBORD, CliniSys, and Data Innovations; Network Software and Systems, which includes ConstructConnect, DAT, Foundry, Inovonics; Measurement and Analytical Solutions, which includes Alpha, CIVCO Medical Solutions, CIVCO Radiotherapy, Dynisco, FMI, Hansen, Hardy, IPA, Logitech, Neptune, Northern Digital, Struers, Technolog, Uson, Verathon; and Process Technologies, which includes AMOT, CCC, Cornell, FTI, Metrix, PAC, Roper Pump, Viatran, Zetec.

Ross Stores Inc.

Ross Stores and its subsidiaries operate two brands of off-price retail apparel and home fashion stores, which are Ross Dress for Less? (Ross) and dd's DISCOUNTS?. Ross provides name brand and designer apparel, accessories, footwear, and home fashions for the entire family at savings of 20% to 60% off department and specialty store regular prices every day. dd's DISCOUNTS provides name brand apparel, accessories, footwear, and home fashions for the entire family at savings of 20% to 70% off moderate department and discount store regular prices every day. Both of the company's Ross and dd's DISCOUNTS brands target women and men between the ages of 18 and 54.

Sanderson Farms Inc.

Sanderson Farms is a poultry processing company engaged in the production, processing, marketing and distribution of frozen chicken products, including processed and minimally prepared chicken. The company sells ice-packed, chill-packed, bulk-packed and frozen chicken, in whole, cut-up and boneless form to retailers, distributors, and casual dining operators, and to customers who resell frozen chicken into export markets. The company operates through: Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Production Division), which is engaged in the production of chickens to the broiler stage; and Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Processing Division), which is engaged in the processing, sale and distribution of chicken products.

Sempra Energy

Sempra Energy is an energy-services holding company. The company's segments are: San Diego Gas & Electric Company, which provides electric services and natural gas services in Southern California; Southern California Gas Company, which owns and operates a natural gas distribution, transmission and storage system that supplies natural gas in Southern California and portions of central California; Sempra Texas Utilities, which includes Oncor Electric Delivery Company LLC that provides electricity to consumers; Sempra Mexico, which develops, owns and operates, or holds interests in, energy infrastructure in Mexico; and Sempra LNG, which develops projects for the export of liquefied natural gas.

T-Mobile US Inc.

T-Mobile US provides mobile communications services, including voice, messaging and data, under its brands, T-Mobile and Metro? by T-Mobile, in the United States, Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands. The company provides mobile communications services using its 4G Long-Term Evolution network and its 5G technology network. The company also provides various wireless devices, including handsets, tablets and other mobile communication devices, and accessories for sale, as well as financing through Equipment Installment Plans and leasing through JUMP! On Demand?. The company provides reinsurance for handset insurance policies and extended warranty contracts offered to its mobile communications customers.

United Rentals Inc.

United Rentals is an equipment rental company that operates throughout the United States and Canada, and Europe. The company's general rentals segment includes the rental of construction, aerial and industrial equipment, general tools and light equipment, and related services and activities. This segment's customers include construction and industrial companies, manufacturers, utilities, municipalities and homeowners. The company's trench, power and fluid solutions segment includes the rental of construction products and related services. This segment consist of: Trench Safety region, Power and Heating, Ventilating and Air Conditioning region; and Fluid Solutions and Fluid Solutions Europe regions.

Walt Disney Company

Walt Disney is an entertainment company. The company's segments are: Media Networks, which includes domestic cable networks, broadcast television network and domestic television stations, and television production and distribution; Parks, Experiences and Products, which includes theme parks and resorts, and consumer products operations; Studio Entertainment, which includes motion picture production and distribution, music production and distribution, and post-production services; and Direct-to-Consumer and International, which includes international television networks and channels, direct-to-consumer streaming services, and other digital content distribution platforms and services.

Xcel Energy Inc.

Xcel Energy is a regulated electric and natural gas delivery company which serves customers in mid-western and western states, including portions of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas and Wisconsin. The company's reportable segments include: regulated electric utility, which generates, transmits and distributes electricity in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Dakota, South Dakota, Colorado, Texas and New Mexico; regulated natural gas utility, which transports, stores and distributes natural gas primarily in portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota, Michigan and Colorado; and other, which includes steam revenue and appliance repair services.

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