Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2021 05 18

Current market expectations for WW are overly pessimistic. Markets expect UAFRS-based ROA (Uniform ROA or ROA') to drop below all-time lows, including pandemic-driven lows.

The market is not recognizing how WW (formerly Weight Watchers) has successfully transitioned its business to the digital realm and defended its economic moats from lower end simple competitors. It has rebuilt its digital business with a focus around its community to create more stickiness and a strong differentiator, and with people focused on getting
healthier as the world re-opens, it is primed to reap significant rewards.

On top of this, management's alignment, focus on growing its higher margin digital business, means they are likely to execute on their high return business plan, not see returns fade like investors are expecting.

Also, management is confident in the strength of their economic moat.

Considering low market expectations, the company's strong position and strategy, macro
tailwinds, and confidence about executing on their strategy for the business, current low
equity valuations appear unreasonable, spelling potential for equity upside.

PEP Q1 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to rebound, but management may have concerns about market share, margins, and Frito-Lay pricing

LUV Q1 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to rebound, but management may be concerned about travel demand, flight initiatives, and the MAX aircraft

DOCU Q4 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for a positive inflection in Uniform ROA, but management may have concerns about customer growth, retention rates, and international markets

WW, DOCU, LUV, PEP, ADBE, AMCX, CAG, CRWD, CTAS, DG, DHI, FDX, HCA, KDP, MNST, MODV, PSA, STZ, T, TFX, UNH, VZ
Underlyings
Adobe Inc.

Adobe is a software company. The company provides a line of products and services used for creating, managing, delivering, measuring, optimizing, engaging and transacting with content across personal computers, devices and media. The company's segments are: Digital Media, which provides products, services and solutions that enable individuals, teams and enterprises to create, publish and promote their content; Digital Experience, which provides a platform and set of applications and services through Adobe Experience Cloud; and Publishing, which contains products and services that address market opportunities including eLearning solutions, web conferencing, web application development and printing.

AMC Networks Inc. Class A

AMC Networks is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in owning and operating entertainment businesses and assets. The company's operating segments are: National Networks, which includes activities of the company's programming businesses, which include programming networks such as AMC, WE tv, BBC AMERICA, IFC, and SundanceTV in the U.S., and AMC and IFC in Canada; and International and Other, which includes AMC Networks International, the company's international programming businesses consisting of a portfolio of channels; IFC Films, the company's independent film distribution business, and its subscription streaming services Acorn TV and UMC, Shudder and Sundance Now.

AT&T Inc.

AT&T is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a provider of telecommunications, media and technology services. The company's Communications segment provides wireless and wireline telecom, video and broadband services. The company's WarnerMedia segment includes media and entertainment businesses that principally develop, produce and distribute feature films, television content, and other content globally; and operate digital media properties. The company's Latin America segment provides entertainment services in Latin America and wireless services in Mexico. The company's XANDR segment relies on using data from its customer relationships, to develop digital and video advertising that is relevant to consumers.

Cintas Corporation

Cintas is a provider of corporate identity uniforms through rental and sales programs, as well as a provider of related business services, including entrance mats, restroom cleaning services and supplies, carpet and tile cleaning services, first aid and safety services and fire protection products and services. The company's segments are Uniform Rental and Facility Services, which consists of the rental and servicing of uniforms and other garments, including flame resistant clothing, mats, mops and shop towels and other ancillary items; and The First Aid and Safety Services, which consists of first aid and safety products and services.

Conagra Brands Inc.

Conagra Brands is a packaged goods food company. The company's segments are: Grocery and Snacks, which includes branded, shelf stable food products sold in various retail channels; Refrigerated and Frozen, which includes branded, temperature controlled food products sold in various retail channels; International, which includes branded food products sold in retail and foodservice channels outside of the U.S.; Foodservice, which includes customized food products for sale to restaurants and other foodservice establishments; Pinnacle Foods, which includes and private-label food products; and Commercial Foods, which included commercially branded and private label food and ingredients, among others.

Constellation Brands Inc. Class A

Constellation Brands is an international beverage alcohol company. The company is a producer and marketer of beer, wine and spirits with operations in the U.S., Mexico, New Zealand, Italy and Canada. The company has two segments: Beer, in which the company is engaged in the U.S. beer market that includes the imported, craft, domestic super premium, and alternative beverage alcohol categories and it has the right to import, market and sell these Mexican beer brands in the U.S.; and Wine and Spirits, in which its wine portfolio is supported by grapes purchased from independent growers, primarily in the U.S., New Zealand and Chile, and vineyard holdings in the U.S., New Zealand and Italy.

CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. Class A

CrowdStrike is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides a cloud-delivered solution for next-generation endpoint protection that offers 10 cloud modules on its Falcon platform via a SaaS subscription-based model that spans multiple large security markets, including endpoint security, security and IT operations (including vulnerability management), and threat intelligence. The company conducts its business in the United States, as well as locations internationally, including in Australia, Germany, India, Romania, and the United Kingdom.

D.R. Horton Inc.

D.R. Horton is a homebuilding company. The company's business operations consist of homebuilding, a majority-owned residential lot development company, financial services and other activities. The company's financial services operations provide mortgage financing and title agency services to homebuyers in its homebuilding markets. The company's subsidiary, DHI Mortgage, provides mortgage financing services primarily to its homebuyers and generally sells the mortgages it originates and the related servicing rights to third-party purchasers. The company's subsidiary title companies serve as title insurance agents by providing title insurance policies, examination and closing services, primarily to its homebuyers.

DocuSign Inc.

DocuSign provides e-signature solution as the main part of its cloud software suite for automating the agreement process. The company calls its suite the DocuSign Agreement Cloud. The DocuSign Agreement Cloud is designed to allow companies of various sizes and across various industries to make agreement, approval process, or transaction digital, from practically any device, from almost anywhere in the world.

Dollar General Corporation

Dollar General is a discount retailer. The company's consumables products includes paper and cleaning products, packaged food, perishables, snacks, health and beauty, pet, and tobacco products. The company's seasonal products include decorations, toys, batteries, small electronics, greeting cards, stationery, prepaid phones and accessories, gardening supplies, hardware, automotive and home office supplies. The company's home products include kitchen supplies, cookware, small appliances, light bulbs, storage containers, frames, candles, craft supplies and kitchen, bed and bath soft goods. The company's apparel includes casual everyday apparel, as well as socks, underwear, disposable diapers, shoes and accessories.

FedEx Corporation

FedEx provides transportation, e-commerce and business services through companies under the FedEx brand. These companies are included in the following segments: Federal Express Corporation, including TNT Express B.V., is an express transportation company; FedEx Ground Package System, Inc., which is a provider of small-package ground delivery services; FedEx Freight Corporation, which is a provider of less-than-truckload freight services; and FedEx Corporate Services, Inc., which provides sales, marketing, information technology, communications, customer service, technical support, billing and collections services, and certain back-office functions.

HCA Healthcare Inc

HCA Healthcare is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, partnerships and joint ventures, the company owns and operates hospitals and related health care entities. Most of the company's general, acute care hospitals provide medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic services and emergency services. The general, acute care hospitals also provide outpatient services such as outpatient surgery, laboratory, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology and physical therapy. The company's psychiatric hospitals provide therapeutic programs including child, adolescent and adult psychiatric care, adolescent and adult alcohol and drug abuse treatment and counseling.

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.

Keurig Dr Pepper is a beverage company with a portfolio of flavored (non-cola) carbonated soft drinks (CSDs), non-carbonated beverages, and is a producer of single serve brewing systems. The company's Coffee Systems segment develops and sells a variety of Keurig brewers, brewer accessories and other coffee-related equipment. The company's Packaged Beverages segment manufactures and distributes packaged beverages of its brands. The company's Beverage Concentrates segment manufactures and sells beverage concentrates. The company's Latin America Beverages segment participates mainly in the carbonated mineral water, flavored CSD, bottled water and vegetable juice categories.

ModivCare Inc

Monster Beverage Corporation

Monster Beverage is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company develops, markets, sells and distributes energy drink beverages and concentrates for energy drink beverages. The company has the following operating and reportable segments: Monster Energy? Drinks segment, which is primarily comprised of the company's Monster Energy? drinks and Reign Total Body Fuel? energy drinks; Strategic Brands segment, which is comprised primarily of the various energy drink brands from The Coca-Cola Company, as well as its energy drinks; and Other segment, which is comprised of certain prod ucts sold by American Fruits and Flavors, LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary, to independent third-party customers.

PepsiCo Inc.

PepsiCo is a food and beverage company. The company's segments include: Frito-Lay North America, which includes food and snack businesses in the United States and Canada; Quaker Foods North America, which includes cereal, rice, pasta and other food businesses in the United States and Canada; PepsiCo Beverages North America, which includes beverage businesses in the United States and Canada; Latin America, which includes beverage, food and snack businesses in Latin America; Europe, which includes beverage, food and snack businesses in Europe; and Africa, Middle East and South Asia, which includes beverage, food and snack businesses in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia.

Public Storage

Public Storage is a real estate investment trust. The company's business activities include: Self-storage Operations, which acquires, develops, owns and operates self-storage facilities that provide storage spaces for lease on a month-to-month basis, for personal and business use; Ancillary Operations, which reinsures policies against losses to goods stored by customers in the company's self-storage facilities and sells merchandise, mainly locks and cardboard boxes, at its self-storage facilities; and Investment in PS Business Parks Inc. (PSB), in which the company has an equity interest in PSB that owns, operates, acquires and develops commercial properties, mainly multi-tenant flex, office, and industrial parks.

SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO

Southwest Airlines operates Southwest Airlines, a passenger airline that provides scheduled air transportation in the United States and near-international markets. The company has Boeing 737 aircraft in its fleet and serves destinations in various states, the District of Columbia, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, and other near-international countries such as Mexico, Jamaica, The Bahamas, Aruba, Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Belize, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Turks and Caicos. The company principally provides point-to-point service, which allows for direct nonstop routing. The company also provides a suite of digital platforms to support Customers' needs prior to and during the course of their travel.

Teleflex Incorporated

Teleflex is a provider of medical technology products. The company primarily designs, develops, manufactures and supplies single-use medical devices used by hospitals and healthcare providers for common diagnostic and therapeutic procedures in critical care and surgical applications. The company's product categories within its geographic segments include vascular access, which provides devices that facilitate a variety of critical care therapies and other applications; anesthesia, which comprised of airway and pain management product lines; and interventional, which consist of a variety of coronary catheters, structural heart therapies, and peripheral intervention products.

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated

UnitedHealth Group is a health care company. The company has four reportable segments across its two business platforms, UnitedHealthcare and Optum: UnitedHealthcare, which provides health care benefits to an array of customers and markets through its UnitedHealthcare Employer & Individual, UnitedHealthcare Medicare & Retirement, UnitedHealthcare Community & State and UnitedHealthcare Global; OptumHealth, which serves the physical, emotional and health-related financial needs of individuals; OptumInsight, which provides services, technology and health care knowledge to main participants in the health care industry; and OptumRx, which provides pharmacy care services and programs.

Verizon Communications Inc.

Verizon Communications is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides communications, information and entertainment products and services to consumers, businesses and governmental agencies. The company has two reportable segments, Verizon Consumer Group (Consumer) and Verizon Business Group (Business). The company's Consumer segment provides consumer-focused wireless and wireline communications services and products under the Verizon brand and through wholesale and other arrangements. The company's Business segment provides, among others, wireless and wireline communications services and products, video and data services, corporate networking solutions, security and managed network services.

WW International Inc.

WW International is a wellness company and provider of commercial weight management program. The company's Weight Management Program and Plan is comprised of a range of nutritional, activity, behavioral and lifestyle tools and approaches, and includes its food plan, known as SmartPoints. The company's services and products include digital offerings provided through its websites, mobile sites and apps, workshops conducted by the company and its franchisees, consumer products sold direct to consumers, licensed and endorsed products sold in retail channels, and publications. The company provides subscriptions for its digital products and for itsworkshops.

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