Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2018 04 11

INTU currently trades at historical highs relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 29.7x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to expand rapidly, from 40% in 2017 to 83% by 2022, accompanied by 1% Uniform Asset growth going forward. However, analysts have less bullish expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to only improve to 43% levels through 2019, accompanied by 4% Uniform Asset growth. Moreover, Valens' qualitative analysis of the firm's Q2 2018 earnings call highlights that management has concerns about their net income, Tax business, and acquisitions. At current valuations, markets are pricing in a near-best-case scenario for INTU, and considering management concerns about their outlook, any negative surprise could lead to material equity downside.

AAPL Q1 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for material declines in Uniform ROA, but management is confident in their capital allocation plans, the iPhone, and customer satisfaction

MGM Q4 2017 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for record-high Uniform ROA, but management has concerns about EBITDA, growth opportunities, and their core properties

SYY Q2 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for record-high Uniform ROA, but management has concerns about costs, growth, and technology

2914:JPN, ADBE, AL, AMT, AN, AVGO, AVP, AXL, CVI, ECL, FIS, KFY, MCK, NSC, PETR4:BRA, TJX, VOW3:DEU, WYN
Underlyings
Adobe Inc.

Adobe is a software company. The company provides a line of products and services used for creating, managing, delivering, measuring, optimizing, engaging and transacting with content across personal computers, devices and media. The company's segments are: Digital Media, which provides products, services and solutions that enable individuals, teams and enterprises to create, publish and promote their content; Digital Experience, which provides a platform and set of applications and services through Adobe Experience Cloud; and Publishing, which contains products and services that address market opportunities including eLearning solutions, web conferencing, web application development and printing.

Air Lease Corporation Class A

Air Lease is an aircraft leasing company. The company is engaged in purchasing new commercial jet transport aircraft directly from aircraft manufacturers, such as The Boeing Company and Airbus S.A.S., and leasing those aircraft to airlines. In addition to its leasing activities, the company sells aircraft from its operating lease portfolio to third parties, including other leasing companies, financial services companies, airlines and other investors. The company also provides fleet management services to investors and owners of aircraft portfolios. The company provides aircraft to airline customers in Asia, the Pacific Rim, Latin America, the Middle East, Europe, Africa, and North America.

AMERICAN AXLE & MANUFACTURING HLDGS

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings is a supplier to the automotive industry. The company designs, engineers and manufactures driveline and metal forming products. The company's business is organized into Driveline and Metal Forming segments. Driveline products consist primarily of front and rear axles, driveshafts, differential assemblies, clutch modules, balance shaft systems, disconnecting driveline technology, and electric and hybrid driveline products and systems. Metal Forming products consist primarily of axle and transmission shafts, ring and pinion gears, differential gears and assemblies, connecting rods and variable valve timing products.

American Tower Corporation

American Tower is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a real estate investment trusts and an independent owner, operator and developer of multitenant communications real estate. The company's primary business is the leasing of space on communications sites to wireless service providers, radio and television broadcast companies, wireless data providers, government agencies and municipalities and tenants in a number of other industries. The company also provides tower-related services, including site acquisition, zoning and permitting and structural analysis, which primarily support the company's site leasing business, including the addition of new tenants and equipment on its sites.

Apple Inc.

Apple designs, manufactures and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related services. The company's products include: iPhone; Mac; iPad; and wearables, home and accessories, which includes AirPods?, Apple TV?, Apple Watch?, Beats? products, HomePod?, iPod touch? and other Apple-branded and third-party accessories. The company's services include: digital content stores and streaming services; AppleCare, which includes AppleCare + (AC+) and the AppleCare Protection Plan; iCloud, which is the company's cloud service; licensing; and other services, which include Apple Arcade?, Apple Card?, Apple News+, and Apple Pay, a cashless payment service.

AutoNation Inc.

AutoNation, through its subsidiaries, is an automotive retailer. The company provides a range of automotive products and services, including new vehicles, used vehicles, parts and service, which includes automotive repair and maintenance services as well as wholesale parts and collision businesses, and automotive finance and insurance products, which include vehicle service and other protection products, and the arranging of financing for vehicle purchases through third-party finance sources. The company owns and operates new vehicle franchises from stores located in the United States, in main metropolitan markets in the Sunbelt region. The company has three segments: Domestic, Import, and Premium Luxury.

Avon Products Inc.

Avon Products is a manufacturer and marketer of beauty and related products. The company's product categories are Beauty and Fashion and Home. Beauty consists of skincare, fragrance and color (cosmetics). Fashion and Home consists of fashion jewelry, watches, apparel, footwear, accessories, gift and decorative products, housewares, entertainment and leisure products, children's products and nutritional products. The company's business is conducted primarily in one channel, direct selling. The company's reportable segments are based on geographic operations in four regions: Europe, Middle East & Africa; South Latin America; North Latin America; and Asia Pacific.

Broadcom Inc.

Broadcom, via its subsidiaries, is a designer, developer and supplier of a range of semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The company develops semiconductor devices with a focus on digital and mixed signal complementary metal oxide semiconductor based devices and analog III-V based products. The company provides products that are used in end products such as enterprise and data center networking, home connectivity, set-top boxes, broadband access, telecommunication equipment, smartphones and base stations, data center servers and storage systems, and factory automation. The company has three segments: semiconductor solutions, infrastructure software and intellectual property licensing.

CVR Energy Inc.

CVR Energy is a holding company. The company is engaged in the petroleum refining and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing industries through its holdings in CVR Refining, LP (CVR Refining) and CVR Partners, LP (CVR Partners). CVR Refining is an independent petroleum refiner and marketer of transportation fuels. CVR Partners produces and markets nitrogen fertilizers in the form of urea ammonium nitrate and ammonia. The company's segments include: Petroleum, which includes refineries located in Coffeyville, KS and Wynnewood, OK and supporting logistics assets in the region; and Nitrogen Fertilizer, which includes nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing facilities located in Coffeyville, KS and East Dubuque, IL.

Ecolab Inc.

Ecolab is a provider of water, hygiene and energy technologies and services. The company's segments include: Global Industrial, which provides water treatment and process applications, and cleaning and sanitizing solutions in the manufacturing, food and beverage processing, chemical, power generation, pharmaceutical and commercial laundry industries; Global Institutional, which provides cleaning and sanitizing products to the foodservice, hospitality, lodging, healthcare, government, education and retail industries; and Global Energy, which serves the process chemicals and water treatment needs of the global petroleum and petrochemical industries in both upstream and downstream applications.

Fidelity National Information Services Inc.

Fidelity National Information Services is a provider of technology solutions for merchants, banks, and capital markets firms globally. The company's solutions include merchant acquiring solutions; payment solutions; global eCommerce solutions; processing and ancillary applications solutions; digital solutions; fraud, risk management and compliance solutions; electronic funds transfer and network services solutions; card and retail payment solutions; wealth and retirement solutions; item processing and output services solutions; securities processing and finance solutions; global trading solutions; asset management and insurance solutions; and corporate liquidity solutions.

Intuit Inc.

Intuit helps consumers, small businesses, and the self-employed prosper by delivering financial management and compliance products and services. The company also provides tax products to accounting personnels, who are main partners that help the company serves small business customers. The company organizes its businesses into three reportable segments: Small Business and Self-Employed, which provides QuickBooks financial management solutions to solve financial and compliance problems; Consumer, which includes TurboTax products and services to prepare and file income tax returns; and Strategic Partner, which includes professional tax offerings and serve professional accountants in United States and Canada.

Korn Ferry

Korn Ferry is an organizational consulting firm. The company is engaged in the business of giving client awareness to its range of talent management solutions. The company's segments include: Executive Search, in which the company's services are used to fill executive-level positions, such as board directors, chief executive officers, chief operating officers, chief information officers, chief human resource officers and other senior executive officers; Advisory, which helps clients design their organization and shows them the way to compensate, develop and motivate their people; and RPO and Professional Search, which combines people, process personnel and intellectual property enabled technology.

McKesson Corporation

McKesson provides pharmaceuticals and medical supplies and services to its customers. The company's segments include: U.S. Pharmaceutical and Specialty Solutions, which provides distribution and logistics services for branded, generic, specialty, biosimilar and over-the-counter pharmaceutical drugs and other healthcare-related products to customers; European Pharmaceutical Solutions, which provides distribution and services to wholesale, institutional and retail customers in European countries where it owns, partners or franchises with retail pharmacies; and Medical-Surgical Solutions, which delivers medical-supply distribution, logistics, biomedical and other services to healthcare providers.

MGM Resorts International

MGM Resorts International is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company owns and operates casino, hotel, and entertainment resorts across the United States and in Macau. The company's segments include: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, which consists of casino resorts such as Bellagio, MGM Grand Las Vegas, Mandalay Bay, The Mirage, Luxor, New York-New York, Excalibur, and Park MGM; Regional Operations, which consists of casino resorts such as MGM Grand Detroit, Beau Rivage, Gold Strike Tunica, Borgata, MGM National Harbor, MGM Springfield, Empire City, and MGM Northfield Park; and MGM China, which owns and operates casino resorts and the related gaming subconcession and land concessions.

Norfolk Southern Corporation

Norfolk Southern is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the rail transportation of raw materials, intermediate products, and finished goods primarily in the Southeast, East, and Midwest and, via interchange with rail carriers, to and from the rest of the United States. The company also transports overseas freight through several Atlantic and Gulf Coast ports. The company provides intermodal network in the eastern half of the United States. The company's railroad operates in several states and the District of Columbia. The company's system reaches manufacturing plants, electric generating facilities, mines, distribution centers, transload facilities, and other businesses in its service area.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA

Sysco Corporation

Sysco, acting through its subsidiaries and divisions, is a distributor of food and related products primarily to the foodservice or food-away-from-home industry. The company has three reportable segments: United States Foodservice Operations, which primarily include United States Broadline operations, which distribute a line of food products, including custom-cut meat, seafood, specialty produce, specialty imports and a variety of non-food products; International Foodservice Operations, which include operations in the Americas and Europe, which distribute a line of food products and a variety of non-food products; and SYGMA, which consists of its United States customized distribution subsidiary.

TJX Companies Inc

TJX Companies is an off-price apparel and home fashions retailer. The company's segments comprised of: Marmaxx, which sells family apparel (including footwear and accessories), home fashions (including home basics, decorative accessories and giftware) and other merchandise; HomeGoods, which provides a range of home fashions, including home fashions, including furniture, rugs, lighting, soft home, decorative accessories, tabletop and cookware as well as pet, kids and gourmet food departments; TJX Canada, which operates the Winners, HomeSense and Marshalls chains in Canada; and TJX International, which operates the T.K. Maxx and HomeSense chains in Europe and the T.K. Maxx chain in Australia.

Travel + Leisure Co.

Wyndham Destinations is a vacation ownership and exchange company. The company provides everyday travelers the opportunity to own, exchange or rent their vacation experience. The company's operations are grouped into two segments: Vacation Ownership, which is a timeshare business with resorts and owners that develops and markets vacation ownership interests (VOIs) to individual consumers, provide consumer financing in connection with the sale of VOIs, and provides property management services at resorts; and Vacation Exchange, which operates the vacation exchange network with members, and has relationships with vacation ownership resorts located in various countries and territories.

Volkswagen AG

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