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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2021 09 07

NOC is one of the largest and most trusted U.S. defense contractors. With its business units well aligned to the fastest growing military spending areas, and with recent contract wins for the B-21 bomber and its ICBM program, Northrop Grumman has the potential to see its returns shift to a higher plateau.

However, the market is expecting the company's growth to be lower than historical levels, and it projects profitability to struggle, with UAFRS-based (Uniform) ROA falling to a four year low rather than expanding as other contractors have done with similar contract wins.

While markets are overly pessimistic, management is aligned to focus on driving margins and efficient top line growth, while maintaining operating and working capital efficiency.
Furthermore, management is well aligned to focus on the drivers of ROA, signaling
expectations for declines in ROA and growth are too negative.

Also, during the most recent Q2 2021 earnings call, management showed confidence about
their strong contract backlog, their ability to structure profitable contracts with the military,
and about how their outlook is insulated from the military's withdrawal from Afghanistan and
its impact on some areas of defense spending.

Considering the market's overly bearish expectations for Northrop Grumman and considering the possibility the company will see a higher plateau shift in its profitability, current expectations for the stock are overly bearish and equity upside is warranted.

TWTR Q2 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA expansion, but management may be concerned about MDAU growth, Spaces conversations, and their ecosystem

DHI Q3 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations for Uniform ROA compression, but management is confident about pricing, demand, and liquidity

BSX Q2 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to rebound, but management may have concerns about growth, their therapies, and new product launches

NOC, BSX, DHI, TWTR, ADT, ALLE, AMKR, ARMK, BERY, COMM, GNTX, H, ISRG, JBLU, MMC, MO, TMO
Underlyings
ADT Inc

ADT is a provider of monitored security and interactive home and business automation solutions in the United States and Canada. The company's monitored security and automation offerings involve the installation and monitoring of security and premises automation systems designed to detect intrusion; control access; sense movement, smoke, fire, carbon monoxide, flooding, temperature, and other environmental conditions and hazards; and address personal emergencies. The company's products and services include interactive technologies to allow its customers to remotely monitor and manage their residential and commercial environments by adding automation capabilities to its monitored security systems.

Allegion PLC

Altria Group Inc

Altria Group is a holding company. The company's subsidiaries include: Philip Morris USA Inc., which is engaged in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes; John Middleton Co., which is engaged in the manufacture and sale of machine-made cigars and pipe tobacco; Sherman Group Holdings, LLC and its subsidiaries, which are engaged in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes and the sale of cigars; and UST LLC, which through its subsidiaries, including U.S. Smokeless Tobacco Company LLC and Ste. Michelle Wine Estates Ltd., is engaged in the manufacture and sale of smokeless tobacco products and wine. The products of the company's tobacco subsidiaries include smokeable tobacco products and machine-made cigars.

Amkor Technology Inc.

Amkor Technology is a provider of outsourced semiconductor packaging and test services, which include semiconductor wafer bump, wafer probe, wafer back-grind, package design, packaging, system-level and final test and drop shipment services. The company's Advanced Products include flip chip chip scale packages, wafer-level packages and flip chip ball grid array packages, while its Mainstream Products include leadframe packages, substrate-based wirebond packages and micro-electro-mechanical systems packages. The company provides its services to integrated device manufacturers, fabless semiconductor companies and contract foundries.

Aramark

Aramark is a provider of food, facilities and uniform services. The company manages its Food and Support Services (FSS) business in segments split between its United States and International operations. The company's FSS segments manage a number of interrelated services-including food, hospitality, procurement and facility services-for school districts, colleges and universities, healthcare facilities, businesses, sports, entertainment and recreational venues, conference and convention centers, national and state parks and correctional institutions. The company's Uniform and Career Apparel segment provides employee uniform solution, including design, sourcing and manufacturing, delivery, cleaning and maintenance.

Berry Global Group Inc

Berry Global Group is a supplier of a range of non-woven products used within consumer and industrial end markets. The company's segments are: Consumer Packaging International, which includes recycling, bottles and canisters, containers, polythene films, and technical components product groups; Consumer Packaging North America, which includes containers and pails, foodservice, and tubes product groups; Engineered Materials, which includes stretch and shrink films, converter films, food and consumer films, retail bags, polyvinyl chloride films, and agriculture films product groups; and Health, and Hygiene and Specialties, which includes health products, hygiene products, and specialties products.

BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION

Boston Scientific develops, manufactures and markets medical devices. The company's Medical Surgical segment consist of: Endoscopy, which develops and manufactures devices to diagnose and treat a range of gastrointestinal and pulmonary conditions; and Urology and Pelvic Health, which develops and manufactures devices to treat various urological and pelvic conditions. The company's Rhythm and Neuro segment includes: Cardiac Rhythm Management, which develops and manufactures implantable devices to treat cardiac abnormalities; and Electrophysiology, which develops and manufactures medical technologies used in the diagnosis and treatment of rate and rhythm disorders of the heart.

CommScope Holding Co. Inc.

CommScope Holding is a provider of infrastructure solutions for communication networks. The company's solutions and services for wired and wireless networks enable high-bandwidth data, video and voice applications. The company's operating segments are: CommScope Connectivity Solutions (CCS) and CommScope Mobility Solutions (CMS). The CCS segment is engaged in providing fiber optic and copper connectivity solutions for use in data centers and business enterprise, telecommunications, cable television and residential broadband networks. The CMS segment is engaged in providing infrastructure for wireless networks.

D.R. Horton Inc.

D.R. Horton is a homebuilding company. The company's business operations consist of homebuilding, a majority-owned residential lot development company, financial services and other activities. The company's financial services operations provide mortgage financing and title agency services to homebuyers in its homebuilding markets. The company's subsidiary, DHI Mortgage, provides mortgage financing services primarily to its homebuyers and generally sells the mortgages it originates and the related servicing rights to third-party purchasers. The company's subsidiary title companies serve as title insurance agents by providing title insurance policies, examination and closing services, primarily to its homebuyers.

Gentex Corporation

Gentex designs and manufactures automatic-dimming rearview mirrors and electronics for the automotive industry, dimmable aircraft windows for the aviation industry, and commercial smoke alarms and signaling devices for the fire protection industry. The company's key business involves designing, developing, manufacturing and marketing interior and exterior automatic-dimming automotive rearview mirrors that use electrochromic technology to dim in proportion to the amount of headlight glare from trailing vehicle headlamps. The company also designs, develops and manufactures various electronics features to the interior and exterior automotive rearview mirrors as well as interior visors and overhead consoles.

Hyatt Hotels Corporation Class A

Hyatt Hotels is a hospitality company engaged in the development, ownership, operation, management, franchising, licensing or provision of services to a portfolio of properties, consisting of full service hotels, select service hotels, resorts, and other properties, including spas and fitness studios, timeshare, fractional, and other forms of residential and vacation properties. The company also manages, provides services to, or licenses its trademarks with respect to residential ownership units that are often adjacent to a Hyatt-branded hotel. Additionally, for condominium ownership units, the company provides services and/or manage the rental programs or homeowner associations associated with such units.

Intuitive Surgical Inc.

Intuitive Surgical develops, manufactures, and markets the da Vinci? Surgical System and the Ion? endoluminal system. The systems consist of a surgeon console or consoles, a patient-side cart, a vision system, and proprietary instruments and accessories. The company's technology is designed to provide surgeons with a range of motion analogous to the motions of a human wrist, while filtering out the tremors inherent in a surgeon's hands. The company's primary platform for robotic-assisted surgery is its family of da Vinci Surgical Systems. The da Vinci Surgical System allows surgeons to operate while seated at an ergonomic console viewing a three-dimensional image of the surgical field.

JetBlue Airways Corporation

JetBlue Airways provides air transportation services. The company also provides Fare Options pricing model, at one of three branded fares: Blue, Blue Plus, and Blue Flex. Each fare includes different offerings such as checked bags, reduced change fees, and additional TrueBlue? points, with all fares including the company's primary offering of in-flight entertainment, snacks and non-alcoholic beverages. TrueBlue? is the company's customer loyalty program designed to reward and recognize loyal customers. The company operates Airbus A321, Airbus A320 and Embraer E190 aircraft types. The company also sells vacation packages through JetBlue Vacations?, a vacation service for self-directed packaged travel planning.

Marsh & McLennan Companies Inc.

Marsh & McLennan Companies is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides clients advice and solutions in risk, strategy and people. The company provides analysis, advice and transactional capabilities to clients. The company conducts business through two segments: Risk and Insurance Services, which includes risk management activities (risk advice, risk transfer and risk control and mitigation solutions) as well as insurance and reinsurance broking and services; and Consulting, which includes health, wealth and career services and products, and other management, economic and brand consulting services.

Northrop Grumman Corporation

Northrop Grumman is a security company. The company's segments include: Aerospace Systems, which is engaged in the design, development, integration and production of manned aircraft, autonomous systems, spacecraft, high-energy laser systems, microelectronics and other systems and subsystems; Innovation Systems, which is engaged in the design, development, integration and production of flight, armament and space systems; Mission Systems, which is engaged in end-to-end mission solutions and multifunction systems; and Technology Services, which is engaged in delivering solutions and services in support of mission-critical networks and systems.

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.

Thermo Fisher Scientific is engaged in serving science. The company's segments include: Life Sciences Solutions, which provides reagents, instruments and consumables used in biological and medical research, discovery and production of new drugs and vaccines as well as diagnosis of disease; Analytical Instruments, which provides instruments, consumables, software and services that are used for a range of applications in the laboratory, on the production line and in the field; and Specialty Diagnostics, which provides diagnostic test kits, reagents, culture media, instruments and associated products for customers in healthcare, clinical, pharmaceutical, industrial, and food safety laboratories.

Twitter Inc.

Twitter provides products and services for people, organizations, advertisers, developers and platform and data partners. The company's product, Twitter, is a global platform for public self-expression and conversation in real time. The company's mobile application, Periscope, lets anyone broadcast and watch video live with others. The company's products and services for advertisers include Promoted Products such as Promoted Tweets, Promoted Accounts, and Promoted Trends. The company's products for developers and data partners provide tools and public application programming interfaces to build applications and other products that utilize Twitter data and syndicate and distribute Twitter content across their properties.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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