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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2020 04 14

EA currently trades near recent averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 19.3x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to remain near current 19% levels in 2024, accompanied by 4% Uniform asset growth going forward. Meanwhile, analysts have similar expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to marginally expand to 20% in 2021, accompanied by 2% Uniform asset growth. That said, management is confident about top and bottom-line growth, their IP portfolio, and mobile market opportunities. Current valuations appear to be pricing in overly bearish expectations for EA, and should the firm just maintain current profitability levels, as positive management sentiment and analyst expectations suggest, upside would be warranted.

LOW Q4 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to slightly expand, but management may be concerned about sales declines, their Pro business, and online capabilities

SBUX Q1 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for improvements in Uniform ROA, but management may be concerned about revenue, China, and customers

GDDY Q4 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to continue to fade, and management may have concerns about their products, strategy, and core platform


EA, GDDY, LOW, SBUX, AAP, CF, CHGG, CLR, DVA, EV, IRBT, MRK, NLSN, SLB, SYY, TGT, TJX
Underlyings
Advance Auto Parts Inc.

Advance Auto Parts is an automotive aftermarket parts provider in North America, serving both professional installers (Professional), and do-it-yourself (DIY), customers as well as independently owned operators. The company's stores and branches provide a range selection of brand name, original equipment manufacturer and private label automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility vehicles and light and heavy duty trucks. Through its integrated operating approach, the company serves its Professional and DIY customers through a variety of channels ranging from brick and mortar store locations to self-service e-commerce sites.

CF Industries Holdings Inc.

CF Industries Holdings is a global fertilizer and chemical company. The company's principal nitrogen fertilizer products are anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution and ammonium nitrate. The company's other nitrogen products include diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid and aqua ammonia, which are sold primarily to its industrial customers, and compound fertilizer products, which are solid granular fertilizer products for which the nutrient content is a combination of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. The company serves its customers in North America through its production, storage, transportation and distribution network.

Chegg Inc.

Chegg provides products and services that help students improve their outcomes throughout their educational journey. The company's offerings fall into two categories: Chegg Services, which encompasses all of its digital products and services such as Chegg Study, Chegg Writing, Chegg Tutors, Chegg Math Solver, and Other Services; and Required Materials, which primarily includes its print textbook and eTextbook offering. To deliver services to students, the company partners with a variety of third parties. The company sources print textbooks, eTextbooks, and supplemental materials directly or indirectly from publishers including Cengage Learning, Pearson, McGraw Hill, Sage Publications, and MacMillan.

Continental Resources Inc.

Continental Resources is an independent crude oil and natural gas company engaged in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas mainly in the North, South and East regions of the U.S. The North region consists of properties north of Kansas and west of the Mississippi River and includes North Dakota Bakken, Montana Bakken, and the Red River units. The South region includes all properties south of Nebraska and west of the Mississippi River including various plays in the South Central Oklahoma Oil Province and Sooner Trend Anadarko Canadian Kingfisher areas of Oklahoma. The East region is comprised of undeveloped leasehold acreage east of the Mississippi River.

DaVita Inc.

DaVita is a healthcare provider focused on transforming care delivery to improve quality of life for patients. The company's United States dialysis business provides kidney dialysis services for patients suffering from end stage renal disease (ESRD). The company's dialysis services include outpatient hemodialysis services, hospital inpatient hemodialysis services, home-based dialysis services, ESRD laboratory services, and management services. The company's ancillary services and strategic initiatives businesses include disease management services, physician services, ESRD Seamless Care Organization joint ventures, clinical research programs, vascular access services, as well as international dialysis operations.

Eaton Vance Corp.

Eaton Vance is engaged in managing investment funds and providing investment management and advisory services to high-net-worth individuals and institutions. Through its investment affiliates, the company manages active equity, income, alternative and blended strategies across a range of investment styles and asset classes, including United States, global and international equities, floating-rate bank loans, municipal bonds, global income, high-yield and investment grade bonds, and mortgage-backed securities, as well as a range of systematic investment strategies, including systematic equity, systematic alternatives and managed options strategies.

Electronic Arts Inc.

Electronic Arts develops, markets, publishes and distributes games, content and services that can be played and watched on a variety of platforms, including game consoles, personal computers, and mobile phones. The company markets and sells its games and services through digital distribution channels and through retail channels. Digitally, the company's console games and services can be purchased through third-party storefronts. In its games and services, the company utilizes brands that it either wholly own or license from others. The company develops and publishes games and services across genres. Within and alongside its games, the company provides live services, including in-game purchases, downloadable content, and esports.

GoDaddy Inc. Class A

GoDaddy is a technology provider to small businesses, web design personnel and individuals, delivering cloud-based products and personalized Customer Care. The company provides hosting, presence and business applications products and services. The company provides applications and access to relevant third party products helping them connect to their customers, manage and grow their businesses and get found online. The company has designed and developed a set of cloud-based technology products enabling its customers to establish a digital presence, connect with their customers and manage their ventures.

IRobot Corporation

iRobot is a consumer robot company. The company's portfolio of solutions features technologies for the connected home and concepts in cleaning, mapping and navigation, human-robot interaction, and physical solutions. The company provides multiple Roomba floor vacuuming robots. The Braava robots automatically dust and damp mop hard-surface floors using cleaning cloths or the company's designed reusable microfiber cloths and include a reservoir that dispenses liquid throughout the cleaning cycle to keep the cloth damp. The robotic lawn mower, Terra t7 is being designed with a mapping and navigation system. Using the engaging Root Coding App, kids can learn coding fundamentals while they play, explore, and create.

Lowe's Companies Inc.

Lowe's Companies is a home improvement retailer. The company provides home improvement products in lumber and building materials, appliances, seasonal and outdoor living, tools and hardware, fashion fixtures, rough plumbing and electrical, paint, millwork, lawn and garden, flooring, and kitchens categories. The company provides installation services through independent contractors in product categories, including appliances, flooring, kitchens, lumber and building materials, and millwork. The company also provides extended protection plans for various products within the appliances, kitchens, fashion fixtures, millwork, rough plumbing and electrical, seasonal and outdoor living, and tools and hardware categories.

Merck & Co. Inc.

Merck & Co. is a global health care company that delivers health solutions through its prescription medicines, vaccines, biologic therapies and animal health products. The company's segments are: Pharmaceutical, which includes human health pharmaceutical products that consist of therapeutic and preventive agents for the treatment of human disorders, and human health vaccine products that consist of preventive pediatric, adolescent and adult vaccines; and Animal Health, which discovers, develops, manufactures and markets veterinary pharmaceuticals, vaccines and health management solutions and services, as well as a suite of digitally connected identification, traceability and monitoring products.

Nielsen Holdings Plc

Schlumberger NV

Schlumberger provides technology for reservoir characterization, drilling, production and processing to the oil and gas industry. The company has four segments: Reservoir Characterization, which consists of the principal technologies involved in finding and defining hydrocarbon resources; Drilling, which consists of the principal technologies involved in the drilling and positioning of oil and gas wells; Production, which consists of the principal technologies involved in the lifetime production of oil and gas reservoirs; and Cameron, which consists of the principal technologies involved in pressure and flow control for drilling and intervention rigs, oil and gas wells and production facilities.

Starbucks Corporation

Starbucks is a roaster, marketer and retailer of coffee. The company's segments are: Americas, which is inclusive of the United States, Canada, and Latin America; International, which is inclusive of China, Japan, Asia Pacific, Europe, Middle East, and Africa; and Channel Development. The company's Americas and International segments include both company-operated and licensed stores. The company's Channel Development segment includes roasted whole bean and ground coffees, Seattle's Best Coffee?, Starbucks- and Teavana-branded single-serve products, a variety of ready-to-drink beverages, and other products sold worldwide outside of the company's company-operated and licensed stores.

Sysco Corporation

Sysco, acting through its subsidiaries and divisions, is a distributor of food and related products primarily to the foodservice or food-away-from-home industry. The company has three reportable segments: United States Foodservice Operations, which primarily include United States Broadline operations, which distribute a line of food products, including custom-cut meat, seafood, specialty produce, specialty imports and a variety of non-food products; International Foodservice Operations, which include operations in the Americas and Europe, which distribute a line of food products and a variety of non-food products; and SYGMA, which consists of its United States customized distribution subsidiary.

Target Corporation

Target provides its customers everyday essentials and merchandise. The company sells an assortment of general merchandise and food. The majority of the company's general merchandise stores provide an edited food assortment, including perishables, dry grocery, dairy, and frozen items. The company's small format stores provide curated general merchandise and food assortments. The company's digital channels include merchandise assortment, including various items found in its stores, along with a complementary assortment. The company also sells merchandise through periodic design and partnerships. The company's owned brands merchandise include: A New Day?, Archer Farms?, Art Class?, Ava & Viv?, Cat & Jack?, and Cloud Island?, among others.

TJX Companies Inc

TJX Companies is an off-price apparel and home fashions retailer. The company's segments comprised of: Marmaxx, which sells family apparel (including footwear and accessories), home fashions (including home basics, decorative accessories and giftware) and other merchandise; HomeGoods, which provides a range of home fashions, including home fashions, including furniture, rugs, lighting, soft home, decorative accessories, tabletop and cookware as well as pet, kids and gourmet food departments; TJX Canada, which operates the Winners, HomeSense and Marshalls chains in Canada; and TJX International, which operates the T.K. Maxx and HomeSense chains in Europe and the T.K. Maxx chain in Australia.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

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  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
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Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

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