Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2021 01 26

Current market expectations for EBAY are excessively pessimistic. Markets expect
UAFRS-based (Uniform) ROA (ROA') to decline significantly going forward, even though ROA' has been remarkably stable since the company spun off the PayPal business in 2015.
However, EBAY has robust economic moats in its core marketplace and successfully monetized its StubHub business at the optimal time and its classifieds businesses. It is the market leader with strong competitive advantages, which give reasons for it to sustain its strong returns going forward.

Management alignment and confidence in recent calls point to reasons to believe in the
sustainability and potential improvement in profitability going forward. Management is specifically compensated to focus on ROIC improvement, even as the market is expecting
returns to decline. Management is also compensated to improve operating profitability and
revenue, guaranteeing they will seek to continue to invest in the business even while sustaining current robust profitability.

Also, management has had confidence in their most recent earnings calls about the resiliency of their revenues and how they are growing their user base. Management has also been confident about getting more engagement from their user base and opening new doors for users to join the platform.

Considering low market expectations in terms of pessimism for both growth and Uniform ROA, management's strong alignment, and confidence about sustaining strong fundamental performance, current low equity valuations appear unreasonable, spelling potential for equity upside.

GM Q3 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to remain stable, but management is confident about EBIT, Factory ZERO, and digital platforms

WH Q3 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to reach all-time highs, but management may be concerned about room openings, their loyalty program, and La Quinta

VSAT Q2 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to remain muted, but management is confident about their government business, the GSAT program, and Link 16 satellite

EBAY, GM, VSAT, WH, AAP, BERY, DELL, FLIR, GD, HZNP, IAC, IDXX, IT, MKSI, RBC, SBUX, UTHR, WDC, WGO, YELP
Underlyings
Advance Auto Parts Inc.

Advance Auto Parts is an automotive aftermarket parts provider in North America, serving both professional installers (Professional), and do-it-yourself (DIY), customers as well as independently owned operators. The company's stores and branches provide a range selection of brand name, original equipment manufacturer and private label automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility vehicles and light and heavy duty trucks. Through its integrated operating approach, the company serves its Professional and DIY customers through a variety of channels ranging from brick and mortar store locations to self-service e-commerce sites.

Berry Global Group Inc

Berry Global Group is a supplier of a range of non-woven products used within consumer and industrial end markets. The company's segments are: Consumer Packaging International, which includes recycling, bottles and canisters, containers, polythene films, and technical components product groups; Consumer Packaging North America, which includes containers and pails, foodservice, and tubes product groups; Engineered Materials, which includes stretch and shrink films, converter films, food and consumer films, retail bags, polyvinyl chloride films, and agriculture films product groups; and Health, and Hygiene and Specialties, which includes health products, hygiene products, and specialties products.

Dell Technologies Inc Class C

Dell Technologies is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company designs, develops, manufactures, markets, sells, and supports a range of products and services. The company's reportable segments are: Infrastructure Solutions Group, which includes servers, networking, and storage, as well as services and third-party software and peripherals; Client Solutions Group, which includes desktops, thin client products, and notebooks, as well as services and third-party software and peripherals; and VMware, which provides compute, cloud management, networking and security, storage and availability, and other end-user computing offerings.

EBay Inc.

eBay is a global commerce provider, which includes its Marketplace, StubHub and Classifieds platforms. The company's Marketplace platforms include its online marketplace located at www.ebay.com, its localized counterparts and the eBay suite of mobile apps. The company's StubHub platforms include its online ticket platform located at www.stubhub.com, its localized counterparts and the StubHub mobile apps. These platforms connect fans with their favorite sporting events, shows and artists and enable them to buy and sell tickets whenever and wherever they want. The company's Classifieds platforms include a collection of brands such as mobile.de, Kijiji, Gumtree, Marktplaats, eBay Kleinanzeigen and others.

FLIR Systems Inc.

FLIR Systems designs, develops, markets, and distributes solutions that detect people, objects and substances that may not be perceived by human senses. The company has three segments: Industrial, which develops hand-held, fixed mount, and desktop imaging and measurement products, and thermal and visible spectrum imaging camera cores and related components; Government and Defense, which develops and manufactures imaging and situational awareness solutions for a variety of military, law enforcement, public safety, and other government entities around the world; and Commercial, which provides security solutions for a multitude of applications, including enterprise and infrastructure security.

Gartner Inc.

Gartner is a research and advisory company. The company's principal products and services are delivered through its three business segments: Research, which provides insights and advice across various functional areas of the enterprise through research, briefings, proprietary tools, access to the company's research personnel, peer networking services and membership programs; Conferences, which provides business personnel across an organization the opportunity to learn, share and network; and Consulting, which helps chief information officers and other senior executives driving technology-related strategic initiatives move from insight to action.

General Dynamics Corporation

General Dynamics is an aerospace and defense company. The company has five operating segments: Aerospace, which provides a family of Gulfstream aircraft and services for business aircraft produced by Gulfstream and other original equipment manufacturers; Combat Systems, which provides combat vehicles, weapons systems and munitions; Information Technology, which provides information technology (IT) services, IT infrastructure modernization and professional services; Mission Systems, which provides mission-critical products and systems; and Marine Systems, which designs and builds nuclear-powered submarines, surface combatants, and auxiliary and combat-logistics ships.

General Motors Company

General Motors designs, builds and sells trucks, crossovers, cars and automobile parts. The company also provides automotive financing services through its subsidiary, General Motors Financial Company, Inc. (GM Financial). GM Financial provides retail loan and lease lending across the credit spectrum. GM Financial provides commercial lending products to dealers including new and used vehicle inventory floorplan financing and dealer loans, which are loans to finance improvements to dealership facilities, to provide working capital, and to purchase and/or finance dealership real estate. Other commercial lending products include financing for parts and accessories, dealer fleets and storage centers.

Horizon Therapeutics Public Limited Company

IAC/InteractiveCorp.

IDEXX Laboratories Inc.

IDEXX Laboratories develops, manufactures, and distributes products and provides services primarily for the companion animal veterinary, livestock and poultry, dairy and water testing markets. The company operates primarily through three business segments: Companion Animal Group, which provides diagnostic and information management-based products and services for the veterinary market; Water Quality Products, which designs, develops, manufactures, and distributes products used in the detection of various microbiological parameters in water; and Livestock, Poultry and Dairy, which provides diagnostic products and services for livestock and poultry health.

MKS Instruments Inc.

MKS Instruments is a provider of instruments, subsystems and process control solutions. The company has two segments: Vacuum & Analysis, which provides instruments, components, subsystems and software which are derived from its knowledge in pressure measurement and control, flow measurement and control, gas and vapor delivery, gas composition analysis, residual gas analysis, leak detection, control and information technology, ozone generation and delivery, radio frequency and data communication power, reactive gas generation and vacuum technology; and Light & Motion, which provides instruments, components and subsystems which are derived from its knowledge in lasers, photonics and optics.

Regal Beloit Corp

Regal Beloit is a manufacturer of electric motors, electrical motion controls, power generation and power transmission products. The company is comprised of four operating segments: Commercial Systems, which produces AC and DC motors, electronic variable speed controls, fans, and blowers for commercial applications; Industrial Systems, which produces motors, generators, alternators and switchgear for industrial applications, along with aftermarket parts and kits to support such products; Climate Solutions, which produces small motors, electronic variable speed controls and air moving solutions; and Power Transmission Solutions, which produces, sells and services belt and chain drives.

Starbucks Corporation

Starbucks is a roaster, marketer and retailer of coffee. The company's segments are: Americas, which is inclusive of the United States, Canada, and Latin America; International, which is inclusive of China, Japan, Asia Pacific, Europe, Middle East, and Africa; and Channel Development. The company's Americas and International segments include both company-operated and licensed stores. The company's Channel Development segment includes roasted whole bean and ground coffees, Seattle's Best Coffee?, Starbucks- and Teavana-branded single-serve products, a variety of ready-to-drink beverages, and other products sold worldwide outside of the company's company-operated and licensed stores.

United Therapeutics Corporation

United Therapeutics is a biotechnology company. The company markets and sells four commercial therapies to treat pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH): Remodulin? (treprostinil) Injection; Tyvaso? (treprostinil) Inhalation Solution; Orenitram? (treprostinil) Extended-Release Tablets; and Adcirca? (tadalafil) Tablets. The company also markets and sells an oncology product, Unituxin? (dinutuximab) Injection for treatment of high-risk neuroblastoma. The company also engages in research and development of new indications and formulations and delivery devices for its existing products, as well as new products to treat PAH and other conditions. The company also engages in organ transplantation-related technologies.

ViaSat Inc.

ViaSat is a provider of broadband technologies and services. The company conducts its business through three segments: satellite services, which provides satellite-based broadband services to consumers, enterprises, and mobile broadband customers; commercial networks, which develops and produces a variety of satellite and wireless products, systems and solutions that enable the provision of fixed and mobile broadband services; and government systems, which provides global mobile broadband services to military and government users, and develops and produces network-centric Internet Protocol-based fixed and mobile communications products and solutions.

Western Digital Corporation

Western Digital is a developer, manufacturer, and provider of data storage devices and solutions. The company's portfolio of technology and products address the following markets: Client Devices, which consist of hard disk drives (HDDs) and solid state drives (SSDs) for computing devices, flash-based embedded storage products, and flash-based memory wafers and components; Data Center Devices and Solutions, which consist of enterprise HDDs and enterprise SSDs, data center software and system solutions; and Client Solutions, which consist of HDDs and SSDs embedded into external storage products and removable flash-based products, such as cards, universal serial bus flash drives and wireless drives.

Winnebago Industries Inc.

Winnebago Industries is a manufacturer with a portfolio of recreation vehicles and marine products used primarily in leisure travel and outdoor recreation activities. The company's reportable segments include: Towable, which is comprised of products which are not motorized and are generally towed by another vehicle as well as other related manufactured products and services; and Motorhome, which is comprised of products that include a motorized chassis as well as other related manufactured products and services. The company's subsidiary, Chris-Craft USA, Inc., manufactures and sells boats in the recreational powerboat industry through a network of independent authorized dealers.

Wyndham Hotels & Resorts Inc.

Wyndham Hotels & Resorts is a hotel franchisor, licensing its hotel brands to hotel owners around the world. The company operates in the following segments: Hotel franchising, which licenses the company's lodging brands and provides related services to third-party hotel owners and others; and Hotel management, which provides hotel management services for full-service and limited-service hotels as well as several hotels that are owned by the company

Yelp Inc

Yelp provides a platform to both consumers and businesses by helping each discover and interact with the other. The reviews contributed to the company's platform cover a set of local business categories, including restaurants, shopping, beauty and fitness, arts, entertainment and events, home and local services, health, nightlife, travel and hotel, auto and other categories. The company provides a range of free and paid advertising products to businesses of all sizes, including the ability to deliver targeted search advertising to large local audiences through its website and mobile app. The company also provides several features and consumer-interactive tools.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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