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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2018 12 19

KHC currently trades well below recent averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with an 18.9x Uniform P/E (Fwd V/E'). At these valuations, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to fall from current 61% levels in 2017 to 56% in 2022, accompanied by 2% Uniform Asset growth going forward. However, analysts have more bullish expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to expand slightly, to 62% levels in 2019, accompanied by 1% Uniform Asset growth. This, coupled with management's excitement about U.S. consumption trends, and confidence in their product innovation pipeline and low-emission initiatives, suggests that KHC can outperform bearish market expectations, warranting upside.

BA Q3 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for continued Uniform ROA expansion, but management has concerns about their T-X program, bottom-line volatility, and their investments

CAT Q3 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for continued Uniform ROA recovery, but management has concerns about their profitability and growth levels, RI and E&T margins, and order rates

KO Q3 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for record-high Uniform ROA, but management has concerns about recent investments, scaling new brands, and currency headwinds

BA, CAT, KO, AMD, APD, BABA, BDX, CHTR, CL, CVX, FIS, HUM, NVDA, PFE, SYF, TXT, VOD:GBR, VOW3:DEU, VZ
Underlyings
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

Advanced Micro Devices is a semiconductor company. The company primarily provides x86 microprocessors, as standalone devices or as incorporated into an accelerated processing unit, chipsets, graphics processing units (GPUs), data center and personnel GPUs, and development services; server and embedded processors, semi-custom System-on-Chip products, development services and technology for game consoles. The company also licenses portions of its intellectual property portfolio. The company's segments are: Computing and Graphics, which consists of desktop, notebooks, commercial, and chipsets products; and Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom, which includes server processors, and embedded P\processors products.

Air Products and Chemicals Inc.

Air Products and Chemicals serves customers globally with a portfolio of products, services, and solutions that include atmospheric gases, process and other gases, equipment, and services. The company is a supplier of hydrogen and is engaged in helium and liquefied natural gas (LNG) process technology and equipment. The company also develops, engineers, builds, owns and operates industrial gas projects, including gasification projects that convert abundant natural resources into syngas for the production of power, fuels and chemicals. The company designs and manufactures equipment for air separation, hydrocarbon recovery and purification, LNG, and liquid helium and liquid hydrogen transport and storage.

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Sponsored ADR

Becton Dickinson and Company

Becton, Dickinson and Company is a medical technology company engaged in the development, manufacture and sale of a range of medical supplies, devices, laboratory equipment and diagnostic products. The company's segments are: BD Medical, which produces an array of medical technologies and devices that are used to help improve healthcare delivery in a range of settings; BD Life Sciences, which provides products for the safe collection and transport of diagnostics specimens, and instruments and reagent systems to detect a range of infectious diseases, healthcare-associated infections and cancers; and BD Interventional, which provides vascular, urology, oncology and surgical products.

BOEING COMPANY (THE)

The Boeing is an aerospace firm. The company's segments include: Commercial Airplanes, which develops, produces and markets commercial jet aircraft and provides fleet support services, mainly to the commercial airline industry; Defense, Space and Security, which engages in the research, development, production and modification of manned and unmanned military aircraft and weapons systems for strike, surveillance and mobility, vertical lift, and commercial derivative aircraft; Global Services, which provides supply chain and logistics management, pilot and maintenance training systems and services, and data analytics and digital services; and Boeing Capital, which manages overall financing exposure.

Caterpillar Inc.

Caterpillar is a manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines and diesel-electric locomotives. The company segments include: Construction Industries, which supports customers using machinery in infrastructure, forestry and building construction; Resource Industries, which supports customers using machinery in mining, heavy construction, quarry and aggregates, waste and material handling applications; Energy and Transportation, which supports customers in oil and gas, power generation, marine, rail and industrial applications, including Cat? machines; and Financial Products, which provides financing and related services.

Charter Communications Inc. Class A

Charter Communications is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a cable operator and a broadband communications company providing video, Internet and voice services. The company also provides its mobile service to residential customers. In addition, the company sells video and online advertising inventory to local, regional and national advertising customers and communications and managed solutions to enterprise customers. The company also owns and operates regional sports networks and local sports, news and community channels. The company owns and operates a two-way telecommunications network which passes various households and small and medium businesses across United States.

Chevron Corporation

Chevron is engaged in energy and chemicals operations. Upstream operations consist primarily of, among others, exploring for, developing and producing crude oil and natural gas; processing, liquefaction, transportation and regasification associated with liquefied natural gas, storage and marketing of natural gas; and a gas-to-liquids plant. Downstream operations consist primarily of, among others, refining crude oil into petroleum products; marketing of crude oil and refined products; and manufacturing and marketing of commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses and fuel and lubricant additives.

Coca-Cola Company

Coca-Cola is a nonalcoholic beverage company. The company owns or licenses and markets nonalcoholic beverage brands, which it groups into the following category clusters: sparkling soft drinks; water, enhanced water and sports drinks; juice, dairy and plant-based beverages; tea and coffee; and energy drinks. The company's nonalcoholic sparkling soft drink brands are Coca-Cola, Diet Coke, Fanta and Sprite. The company markets, manufactures and sells beverage concentrates and syrups, including fountain syrups; and finished sparkling soft drinks and other nonalcoholic beverages. The company's segments are Europe, Middle East and Africa; Latin America; North America; Asia Pacific; Global Ventures; and Bottling Investments.

Colgate-Palmolive Company

Colgate-Palmolive manufactures and markets a variety of products in the United States and around the world. The company has two product segments: Oral, Personal and Home Care; and Pet Nutrition. Oral, Personal and Home Care products include toothpaste, toothbrushes and mouthwash, bar and liquid hand soaps, shower gels, shampoos, conditioners, deodorants and antiperspirants, skin care products, dishwashing detergents, fabric conditioners, household cleaners, and other similar items. Pet Nutrition products include specialty pet nutrition products manufactured and marketed by Hill's Pet Nutrition.

Fidelity National Information Services Inc.

Fidelity National Information Services is a provider of technology solutions for merchants, banks, and capital markets firms globally. The company's solutions include merchant acquiring solutions; payment solutions; global eCommerce solutions; processing and ancillary applications solutions; digital solutions; fraud, risk management and compliance solutions; electronic funds transfer and network services solutions; card and retail payment solutions; wealth and retirement solutions; item processing and output services solutions; securities processing and finance solutions; global trading solutions; asset management and insurance solutions; and corporate liquidity solutions.

Humana Inc.

Humana is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a health and well-being company. The company manages its business with three segments: Retail, which consists of products sold on a retail basis to individuals including medical and supplemental benefit plans, such as Medicare and state-based Medicaid Contracts; Group and Specialty, which consists of employer group commercial fully-insured medical and specialty health insurance benefits, including dental, vision and life insurance benefits, as well as administrative services only; and Healthcare Services, which includes pharmacy solutions, provider services, clinical care services, and predictive modeling and informatics services

Kraft Heinz Company

Kraft Heinz is a food and beverage company. The company manufactures and markets food and beverage products, including condiments and sauces, cheese and dairy, meals, meats, refreshment beverages, coffee, and other grocery products throughout the world. The company has three reportable segments defined by geographic region: United States, Canada, and Europe, Middle East, and Africa. The company's remaining businesses are combined and disclosed as Rest of World. Rest of World comprises two operating segments: Latin America and Asia Pacific.

NVIDIA Corporation

NVIDIA engages in graphics processing unit (GPU)-based visual computing and accelerated computing platforms. The company has two segments, GPU and Tegra Processor, which are based on a single underlying architecture. The company's GPU product brands are aimed at markets including GeForce for gamers; Quadro for designers; Tesla and DGX for artificial intelligence data scientists and big data researchers; and GRID for cloud-based visual computing users. The company's Tegra brand integrates an entire computer onto a single chip, and incorporates GPUs and multi-core CPUs to drive supercomputing for autonomous robots, drones, and cars, as well as for game consoles and mobile gaming and entertainment devices.

Pfizer Inc.

Pfizer is a research-based biopharmaceutical company. The company is engaged in discovering, developing, manufacturing and distributing of healthcare products, including medicines and vaccines. The company manages its commercial operations through three businesses: Pfizer Biopharmaceuticals Group, which includes Oncology, Inflammation and Immunology, Rare Disease, Hospital, Vaccines and Internal Medicine business units, as well as a hospital business unit; Upjohn, which includes the company's solid oral dose brands such as Lyrica, Lipitor, Norvasc, Celebrex, Viagra, and certain generic medicines; and Consumer Healthcare, which is an over-the-counter medicines business.

Synchrony Financial

Synchrony Financial is a savings and loan holding company and financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company delivers a range of financing programs, as well as consumer banking products, across key industries including digital, retail, home, auto, travel, health and pet. The company provides a range of credit products through its financing programs which it has established with a group of national and regional retailers, local merchants, manufacturers, buying groups, industry associations and healthcare service providers, which it refers to as its partners. Through its partners, the company provides their customers a variety of credit products to finance the purchase of goods and services.

Textron Inc.

Textron is a multi-industry company. The company's segments include: Textron Aviation, which manufactures, sells and services Beechcraft and Cessna aircraft, and services the Hawker brand of business jets; Bell, which supplies military and commercial helicopters, tiltrotor aircraft, and related spare parts and services; Textron Systems, which includes unmanned systems, marine and land systems, and simulation, training and other; Industrial, which designs and manufactures a variety of products within fuel systems and functional components and specialized vehicles product lines; and Finance, which provides financing to purchasers of new and pre-owned Textron Aviation aircraft and Bell helicopters.

Verizon Communications Inc.

Verizon Communications is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides communications, information and entertainment products and services to consumers, businesses and governmental agencies. The company has two reportable segments, Verizon Consumer Group (Consumer) and Verizon Business Group (Business). The company's Consumer segment provides consumer-focused wireless and wireline communications services and products under the Verizon brand and through wholesale and other arrangements. The company's Business segment provides, among others, wireless and wireline communications services and products, video and data services, corporate networking solutions, security and managed network services.

Vodafone Group Plc

Vodafone Group provides mobile and fixed telecommunication services including: access charges, voice and video calls, messaging, interconnect fees, fixed and mobile broadband and related services such as providing televisual and music content, connection fees and equipment sales. Co. provides a range of consumer products and services including mobile, fixed voice, broadband and television, financial as well as other services to operators outside its footprint. Co. also provides a range of enterprise products and services including total communications such as mobile, fixed and a suite of converged communications services, internet of things, cloud and hosting and carrier services.

Volkswagen AG

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