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Valens Research

AGCO - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 04 25

AGCO Corporation (AGCO) currently trades below corporate and historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 16.4x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to fade to 8%, accompanied by 5% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to remain at 12% levels through 2023, accompanied by 4% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $223, representing significant potential equity upside for the firm. That said, given the cyclicality of the industry, the firm is unlikely to sustain peak performance.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about inflationary pressures, product management, and inventory.
Underlying
AGCO Corporation

AGCO is a manufacturer and distributor of agricultural equipment and related replacement parts. The company sells a range of agricultural equipment, including tractors, combines, self-propelled sprayers, hay tools, forage equipment, seeding and tillage equipment, implements, and grain storage and protein production systems. The company's products are used in the agricultural equipment industry and are marketed under the Challenger?, Fendt?, GSI?, Massey Ferguson? and Valtra? brands. The company distributes its products through independent dealers and distributors. In addition, the company provides retail and wholesale financing through its finance joint ventures with Cooperatieve Centrale Raiffeisen-Boerenleenbank B.A.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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