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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2022 04 26

Liberty Oilfield Services (LBRT) is a well-positioned vertically integrated, pure play U.S.
shale E&S company. Uniform Accounting highlights the company's profitability potential
during a strong shale cycle that the market is missing, indicating equity upside is
warranted.

Liberty spent the last several years consolidating the U.S. shale completions market,
positioning itself to benefit from a surge shale production. With Russian oil coming off the
market and oil demand recovering from the pandemic, Uniform ROA could accelerate back
to cycle peak levels, which the market is not pricing in at all.

Liberty's management is aligned to focus on Adjusted pre-tax EPS and ROCE, which will lead management to profitably grow the business while also focusing on smart asset
deployment. These metrics should drive strong ROA performance.

Management confidence in the Q4 earnings call about their fleet and about oil demand
support ROA expansion and continued growth.

BBWI Q4 2022 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to compress, and management may have concerns about pricing and SG&A expenses

NWL Q4 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to compress, but management is confident about competition, productivity, and growth

WSO Q4 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to fade, and management may have concerns about profitability and emission regulations

LBRT, BBWI, NWL, WSO, AGCO, BKI, CAR, CLF, OLPX, SEE, TSN
Underlyings
AGCO Corporation

AGCO is a manufacturer and distributor of agricultural equipment and related replacement parts. The company sells a range of agricultural equipment, including tractors, combines, self-propelled sprayers, hay tools, forage equipment, seeding and tillage equipment, implements, and grain storage and protein production systems. The company's products are used in the agricultural equipment industry and are marketed under the Challenger?, Fendt?, GSI?, Massey Ferguson? and Valtra? brands. The company distributes its products through independent dealers and distributors. In addition, the company provides retail and wholesale financing through its finance joint ventures with Cooperatieve Centrale Raiffeisen-Boerenleenbank B.A.

Avis Budget Group Inc.

Avis Budget Group is a provider of mobility solutions through its three brands, Avis, Budget and Zipcar, together with several other brands. The company has two segments: Americas, which provides and licenses the company's brands to third parties for vehicle rentals and ancillary products and services in North America, South America, Central America and the Caribbean, and operates its car sharing business in certain of these markets; and International, which provides and licenses the company's brands to third parties for vehicle rentals and ancillary products and services in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia and Australasia, and operates the company's car sharing business in certain of these markets.

BATH & BODY WORKS INC

Black Knight Inc.

Black Knight is a provider of software, data and analytics solutions to the mortgage and consumer loan, real estate and capital market verticals. The company's solutions facilitate and automate business processes across the homeownership lifecycle. The company's business is organized into two segments: Software Solutions, which provides software and hosting solutions that facilitate and automate business processes across the homeownership lifecycle; and Data and Analytics, which supports the company's software solutions and is designed to help lenders and servicers make informed decisions, improve performance, identify and predict risk and generate qualified leads.

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc

Cleveland-Cliffs is an iron ore mining company. The company is a supplier of iron ore pellets to the North American steel industry from its mines and pellet plants located in Michigan and Minnesota. The company is organized according to its differentiated products. The company has two segments: Mining and Pelletizing, which the company is a main producer of iron ore pellets, primarily selling production from its Mining and Pelletizing segment to integrated steel companies in the U.S. and Canada; and Metallics, which constructing a Hot Briquetted Iron (HBI) production plant, whereby HBI is an iron alternative to scrap that, when used as a feedstock, allows an Electric Arc Furnace to produces valuable grades of steel.

Liberty Oilfield Service

Liberty Oilfield Services is a provider of hydraulic fracturing services to onshore oil and natural gas exploration and production companies in North America. The company provides its services primarily in the Permian Basin, the Eagle Ford Shale, the Denver-Julesburg Basin, the Williston Basin and the Powder River Basin.

Newell Brands Inc

Newell Brands is a global marketer of consumer and commercial products. The company's segments include: Appliances and Cookware, which designs, manufactures, sources, markets and distributes a various line of household products; Food and Commercial, which designs, manufactures, sources, markets and distributes a various line of household products; Home and Outdoor Living, which designs, manufactures, sources, markets and distributes home fragrance and home security products; and Learning and Development, which designs, manufactures, sources, markets and distributes writing instruments, including markers and highlighters, pens and pencils.

OLAPLEX HLDGS INC

Sealed Air Corporation

Sealed Air is a global provider of packaging solutions for the food, e-Commerce, electronics and industrial markets. The company serves an array of end markets including food and beverage processing, food service, retail, commercial and consumer applications, by providing food safety and security, product protection and equipment. The company's segments include: Food Care, which serves perishable food processors, predominantly in chilled, smoked and processed meat, poultry and dairy-solid markets worldwide, and maintains positions in target applications; and Product Care, in which its solutions are designed to protect goods in shipping.

Tyson Foods Inc. Class A

Tyson Foods is a food company. The company's operations consist of breeding stock, contract farmers, feed production, processing, further-processing, marketing and transportation of chicken and related allied products, including animal and pet food ingredients. Through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Cobb-Vantress, Inc., the company is engaged as poultry breeding stock supplier. The company also processes live fed cattle and hogs and fabricates dressed beef and pork carcasses into primal and sub-primal meat cuts, case-ready beef and pork and fully-cooked meats. The company produces a range of fresh, frozen and refrigerated food products. The company operates in Beef, Pork, Chicken and Prepared Foods segments.

Watsco Inc.

Watsco is a distributor of air conditioning, heating and refrigeration equipment and related parts and supplies in North America. The products the company distributes consist of: equipment, including residential ducted and ductless air conditioners, gas, electric, and oil furnaces, commercial air conditioning and heating equipment systems, and other equipment; parts, including replacement compressors, evaporator coils, motors, and other component parts; supplies, including thermostats, insulation material, refrigerants, ductwork, grills, registers, sheet metal, tools, copper tubing, concrete pads, tape, adhesives, and other ancillary supplies; and plumbing and bathroom remodeling supplies.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

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  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
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Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

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