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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2018 08 01

ALXN currently trades near historical lows relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 21.1x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to fall from 30% in 2017 to 11% by 2022, accompanied by 24% Uniform Asset growth going forward. However, analysts have more bullish expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to dip to 20% in 2018, before rebounding back to 30% in 2019, accompanied by 16% Uniform Asset growth. At current valuations, the market is pricing in expectations for the company to see profitability weaken to levels not seen in recent years, which seems unreasonable given strong pipeline tailwinds and bullish, improving analyst outlook. Should ALXN see profitability just remain near current levels as analysts and management sentiment suggests, or even fade slower than markets expect, upside would be warranted.


A Q2 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA expansion, but management has concerns about margins, material costs, and Ultivo

GOOGL Q2 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to fall to historical lows, but management confidence about demand and their offerings suggest this is unwarranted

YUM Q1 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for record-high profitability, and management is excited about bold restaurant developments, and confident in the franchising strategy

HM B:CHE, JCI, KHC, NEM, PAH, PAYX, STZ, SWK, SYF, TSN, UNH, WU
Underlyings
Agilent Technologies Inc.

Agilent Technologies is engaged in life sciences, diagnostics and applied chemical markets. The company's segments are: Life Sciences and Applied Markets Business, which provides instruments and software that enable customers to identify, quantify and analyze the physical and biological properties of substances and products; Diagnostics and Genomics Business, which includes the genomics, nucleic acid contract manufacturing and research and development, pathology, companion diagnostics, reagent partnership and biomolecular analysis businesses; and Agilent CrossLab Business, which spans the entire lab with its consumables and services portfolio to improve customer outcomes.

Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Alexion Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company serving patients and families affected by rare diseases through the discovery, development and commercialization of therapies. The company has developed and commercialized two complement inhibitors to treat patients with paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria and atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome, as well as the complement inhibitor to treat anti-acetylcholine receptor antibody-positive generalized myasthenia gravis and neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder in patients who are anti-aquaporin-4 antibody positive. In addition, the company has two enzyme replacement therapies for metabolic disorders, hypophosphatasia and lysosomal acid lipase deficiency.

Alphabet Inc. Class A

Alphabet is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in a collection of businesses, which its primary business is Google. The company reports all non-Google businesses collectively as Other Bets. Google's main products and platforms are Android, Chrome, Gmail, Google Drive, Google Maps, Google Play, Search, and YouTube. The company also provides advertisers with tools that help them attribute and measure their advertising campaigns. In addition, Other Bets includes Access, Calico, CapitalG, GV, Verily, Waymo, and X, among others. Other Bets primarily engages in the sales of internet and TV services through Access as well as licensing and research and development services through Verily.

Constellation Brands Inc. Class A

Constellation Brands is an international beverage alcohol company. The company is a producer and marketer of beer, wine and spirits with operations in the U.S., Mexico, New Zealand, Italy and Canada. The company has two segments: Beer, in which the company is engaged in the U.S. beer market that includes the imported, craft, domestic super premium, and alternative beverage alcohol categories and it has the right to import, market and sell these Mexican beer brands in the U.S.; and Wine and Spirits, in which its wine portfolio is supported by grapes purchased from independent growers, primarily in the U.S., New Zealand and Chile, and vineyard holdings in the U.S., New Zealand and Italy.

H&M Hennes & Mauritz AB Class B

H & M Hennes & Mauritz is engaged in the sale of clothing and cosmetics in Sweden and internationally. Co.'s stores offer basics, tailored classics, sportswear, and maternity clothes for women; basics, leisurewear, and seasonal fashions for men; denim and street fashions; and fashion wear for children and teenagers, as well as accessories, underwear, and shoes. Co. also provides makeup and body care products; and home fashion products, which include interior textiles for the bedroom, bathroom, living room, and kitchen. Co. has approximately 3,132 stores, including 110 franchise stores, 85 COS stores, 79 Monki stores, 21 Weekday stores, 8 & Other Stories stores and 3 Cheap Monday stores.

Johnson Controls International plc

Kraft Heinz Company

Kraft Heinz is a food and beverage company. The company manufactures and markets food and beverage products, including condiments and sauces, cheese and dairy, meals, meats, refreshment beverages, coffee, and other grocery products throughout the world. The company has three reportable segments defined by geographic region: United States, Canada, and Europe, Middle East, and Africa. The company's remaining businesses are combined and disclosed as Rest of World. Rest of World comprises two operating segments: Latin America and Asia Pacific.

Newmont Corporation

Newmont is primarily a gold producer with operations and/or assets in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Peru, Suriname, Argentina, Chile, Australia and Ghana. The company is also engaged in the production of copper, silver, lead and zinc. The company's operations are organized in five geographic regions; North America, South America, Australia, Africa and Nevada.

Paychex Inc.

Paychex is a provider of integrated human capital management (HCM) solutions for payroll, benefits, human resource (HR), and insurance services for small- to medium-sized businesses. The company's portfolio of HCM and employee benefit-related services include: payroll processing services; payroll tax administration services; employee payment services; regulatory compliance services (new-hire reporting and garnishment processing); HR Solutions Administrative Services Organization; retirement services administration; HR administration services, including time and attendance; other HR services and products; business services; Professional Employer Organization services; and insurance services.

PLATFORM SPECIALTY PRODUCTS

Platform Specialty Products is a producer of chemical products. The company's business involves the formulation of a range of chemicals, which are sold into various industries, including agricultural, animal health, electronics, and graphic arts. The company manages its business in two reportable segments: Performance Solutions, which formulates and markets chemistry solutions that are used in electronics, automotive production, oil and gas production, drilling, commercial packaging and printing; and Agricultural Solutions, which provides to growers a range crop protection solutions from weeds (herbicides), insects (insecticides) and diseases (fungicides), in foliar and seed treatment applications.

Stanley Black & Decker Inc.

Stanley Black & Decker is a provider of hand tools, power tools and related accessories, engineered fastening systems and products, services and equipment for oil and gas and infrastructure applications, commercial electronic security and monitoring systems, healthcare solutions, and automatic doors. The company's segments include: Tools and Storage, which is comprised of the power tools and equipment and hand tools, accessories and storage businesses; Industrial, which is comprised of the engineered fastening and infrastructure businesses; and Security, which is comprised of the convergent security solutions and the mechanical access solutions businesses.

Synchrony Financial

Synchrony Financial is a savings and loan holding company and financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company delivers a range of financing programs, as well as consumer banking products, across key industries including digital, retail, home, auto, travel, health and pet. The company provides a range of credit products through its financing programs which it has established with a group of national and regional retailers, local merchants, manufacturers, buying groups, industry associations and healthcare service providers, which it refers to as its partners. Through its partners, the company provides their customers a variety of credit products to finance the purchase of goods and services.

Tyson Foods Inc. Class A

Tyson Foods is a food company. The company's operations consist of breeding stock, contract farmers, feed production, processing, further-processing, marketing and transportation of chicken and related allied products, including animal and pet food ingredients. Through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Cobb-Vantress, Inc., the company is engaged as poultry breeding stock supplier. The company also processes live fed cattle and hogs and fabricates dressed beef and pork carcasses into primal and sub-primal meat cuts, case-ready beef and pork and fully-cooked meats. The company produces a range of fresh, frozen and refrigerated food products. The company operates in Beef, Pork, Chicken and Prepared Foods segments.

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated

UnitedHealth Group is a health care company. The company has four reportable segments across its two business platforms, UnitedHealthcare and Optum: UnitedHealthcare, which provides health care benefits to an array of customers and markets through its UnitedHealthcare Employer & Individual, UnitedHealthcare Medicare & Retirement, UnitedHealthcare Community & State and UnitedHealthcare Global; OptumHealth, which serves the physical, emotional and health-related financial needs of individuals; OptumInsight, which provides services, technology and health care knowledge to main participants in the health care industry; and OptumRx, which provides pharmacy care services and programs.

Western Union Company

Western Union is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in money movement and payment services, providing people and businesses with ways to send money and make payments around the world. The company's segments are: Consumer-to-Consumer, which is focused on individual money transfers from one consumer to another; and Business Solutions, in which the company facilitates payment and foreign exchange solutions, primarily cross-border, cross-currency transactions, for small and medium size enterprises and other organizations and individuals. The company's remaining businesses and services include its electronic-based and cash-based bill payment services.

Yum! Brands Inc.

Yum! Brands franchises or operates a system of quick service restaurants through its KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell brands. The company's operating segments consist of the KFC Division, the Pizza Hut Division and the Taco Bell Division. KFC restaurants provides fried and non-fried chicken products such as sandwiches, chicken strips, chicken-on-the-bone and other chicken products marketed under a variety of names. Pizza Hut is engaged in the sale of ready-to-eat pizza products. Pizza Hut operates in the delivery, carryout and casual dining segments. Taco Bell is engaged in Mexican-style food products, including various types of tacos, burritos, quesadillas, salads, nachos and other related items.

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Valens Research

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