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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2019 12 17

LOW currently trades above historical averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 26.5x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to expand from 11% in 2019 to 17% in 2024, accompanied by immaterial Uniform Asset shrinkage going forward. Meanwhile, analysts have more muted expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to only improve to 12% through 2021, accompanied by 1% Uniform Asset shrinkage. However, management may be concerned about their revenue, efficiency, and capital returns program. Current valuations appear to be pricing in overly bullish expectations for LOW, and should they see profitability remain stable or contract, as negative management sentiment would suggest, material downside would be warranted.

SYY Q1 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to reach new peaks, but management may be concerned about food cost, revenue, and volume growth

FII Q3 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to decline, but management is confident about Hermes, valuations, and their long-only business

AKS Q3 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for continued weakness in Uniform ROA, but management is confident about their pension plan, regulation, and third quarter performance

LOW, AKS, FII, SYY, ALGT, ANTM, AXL, B, BHC, CL, CVS, DBD, DOOR, GDDY, GM, ITW, LUV, MSM, PINC, SKT
Underlyings
AK Steel Holding Corporation

AK Steel Holding is a producer of flat-rolled carbon, stainless and electrical steels products primarily for the automotive, infrastructure and manufacturing, and distributors and converters markets through its wholly-owned subsidiary, AK Steel Corporation. The company's other subsidiaries also provide customer solutions with carbon and stainless steel tubing products, solutions, tool design, hot- and cold-stamped steel components and assemblies. The company sells its carbon steel products mainly to customers in North America, and it sells its electrical and stainless steel products primarily in North America and Europe. The company also produces metallurgical coal through its AK Coal Resources, Inc. subsidiary.

ALLEGIANT TRAVEL CO

Allegiant Travel is a travel company. The company's travel services and products are: scheduled service air transportation, which provides scheduled air transportation on flights mainly between cities and other destinations; ancillary air-related products and services, which provides unbundled air-related services and products in conjunction with air transportation; third party products and services, which provides third party travel products such as hotel rooms and ground transportation for sale to its passengers; and fixed fee contract air transportation, which provides air transportation through fixed fee agreements and charter service on a year-round and ad-hoc basis.

AMERICAN AXLE & MANUFACTURING HLDGS

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings is a supplier to the automotive industry. The company designs, engineers and manufactures driveline and metal forming products. The company's business is organized into Driveline and Metal Forming segments. Driveline products consist primarily of front and rear axles, driveshafts, differential assemblies, clutch modules, balance shaft systems, disconnecting driveline technology, and electric and hybrid driveline products and systems. Metal Forming products consist primarily of axle and transmission shafts, ring and pinion gears, differential gears and assemblies, connecting rods and variable valve timing products.

Anthem Inc.

Anthem is an insurance holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a health benefits company, serving medical members through its affiliated health plans. The company has three segments: Commercial & Specialty Business, which provides fully-insured health products, managed care services to self-funded customers, and other insurance products and services; Government Business, which includes Medicare and Medicaid businesses, its subsidiary, National Government Services, and services provided to the federal government in connection with its Federal Health Products and Services business; and Other, which includes pharmacy benefits management business and integrated health services business.

Barnes Group Inc.

Barnes Group provides engineered products, industrial technologies, and solutions. The company's products and services are used in applications including aerospace, transportation, manufacturing, automation, healthcare, and packaging. The company's segments are: Industrial, which provides precision components, products and systems for critical applications serving various customer base in end-markets such as transportation, industrial equipment, automation, personal care, packaging, electronics, and medical devices; and Aerospace, which manufactures fabricated and precision machined components and assemblies for turbine engines, nacelles and structures for both commercial and military aircraft.

Bausch Health Companies Inc.

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International is a pharmaceutical and medical device company that develops, manufactures, and markets a range of branded, generic and branded generic pharmaceuticals, over-the-counter (OTC) products, and medical devices (contact lenses, intraocular lenses, ophthalmic surgical equipment, and aesthetics devices). Co. has two operating and reportable segments: Developed Markets, which focuses in dermatology, neurology, gastrointestinal disorders, and eye health therapeutic; and Emerging Markets, which focuses primarily on branded generics, OTC products, and medical devices.

Colgate-Palmolive Company

Colgate-Palmolive manufactures and markets a variety of products in the United States and around the world. The company has two product segments: Oral, Personal and Home Care; and Pet Nutrition. Oral, Personal and Home Care products include toothpaste, toothbrushes and mouthwash, bar and liquid hand soaps, shower gels, shampoos, conditioners, deodorants and antiperspirants, skin care products, dishwashing detergents, fabric conditioners, household cleaners, and other similar items. Pet Nutrition products include specialty pet nutrition products manufactured and marketed by Hill's Pet Nutrition.

CVS Health Corporation

CVS Health is a health company. The company's segments are: Pharmacy Services, which provides a range of pharmacy benefit management solutions, including plan design offerings and administration, formulary management, and retail pharmacy network management services; Retail/Long-Term Care (LTC), which sells prescription drugs and general merchandise, including over-the-counter drugs, provides health care services through its MinuteClinic? walk-in medical clinics and conducts LTC pharmacy operations; and Health Care Benefits, which provides a range of voluntary and consumer-directed health insurance products and related services, including medical, pharmacy, dental and behavioral health plans.

Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated

Diebold Nixdorf is engaged in enabling Connected Commerce?. The company automates, digitizes and transforms the way people bank and shop. The company's integrated solutions connect digital and physical channels for consumers. The company's operating structure is focused on its two customer segments consisting of Banking and Retail. The products for banking customers consist of cash recyclers and dispensers, deposit terminals, teller automation and kiosk technologies, as well as physical security solutions. The retail product portfolio includes modular, integrated and mobile point of sale and self-checkout terminals that meet automation and omnichannel requirements of consumers.

Federated Hermes Inc. Class B

Federated Hermes is a provider of investment management products and related financial services. The company sponsors, markets and provides investment-related services to various investment products, including sponsored investment companies and other funds (Federated Funds) and Separate Accounts. The company markets these funds to banks, broker/dealers and other financial intermediaries who use them to meet the needs of customers and/or clients, including retail investors, corporations and retirement plans. The company also provides a range of services to support the operation and administration of the Federated Funds. These services include administrative services and shareholder servicing.

General Motors Company

General Motors designs, builds and sells trucks, crossovers, cars and automobile parts. The company also provides automotive financing services through its subsidiary, General Motors Financial Company, Inc. (GM Financial). GM Financial provides retail loan and lease lending across the credit spectrum. GM Financial provides commercial lending products to dealers including new and used vehicle inventory floorplan financing and dealer loans, which are loans to finance improvements to dealership facilities, to provide working capital, and to purchase and/or finance dealership real estate. Other commercial lending products include financing for parts and accessories, dealer fleets and storage centers.

GoDaddy Inc. Class A

GoDaddy is a technology provider to small businesses, web design personnel and individuals, delivering cloud-based products and personalized Customer Care. The company provides hosting, presence and business applications products and services. The company provides applications and access to relevant third party products helping them connect to their customers, manage and grow their businesses and get found online. The company has designed and developed a set of cloud-based technology products enabling its customers to establish a digital presence, connect with their customers and manage their ventures.

Illinois Tool Works Inc.

Illinois Tool Works manufactures a range of industrial products and equipment. Automotive OEM segment produces components and fasteners for automotive-related applications. Food Equipment segment is engaged in commercial food equipment. Test and Measurement and Electronics segment produces equipment for testing and measuring of materials and structures. Welding segment produces arc welding equipment, consumables and accessories. Polymers and Fluids segment produces adhesives, sealants, lubrication and cutting fluids for auto aftermarket maintenance. Construction Products segment supplies fastening systems and solutions. Specialty Products segment is focused on patent protection.

Lowe's Companies Inc.

Lowe's Companies is a home improvement retailer. The company provides home improvement products in lumber and building materials, appliances, seasonal and outdoor living, tools and hardware, fashion fixtures, rough plumbing and electrical, paint, millwork, lawn and garden, flooring, and kitchens categories. The company provides installation services through independent contractors in product categories, including appliances, flooring, kitchens, lumber and building materials, and millwork. The company also provides extended protection plans for various products within the appliances, kitchens, fashion fixtures, millwork, rough plumbing and electrical, seasonal and outdoor living, and tools and hardware categories.

Masonite International Corp.

Masonite International designs, manufactures and distributes interior and exterior doors for the new construction and repair, renovation and remodeling sectors of the residential and non-residential building construction markets. Co. manufactures a line of interior doors, including residential molded, flush, stile and rail, louver and commercial and architectural doors; door components for internal use and sale to other door manufacturers; and exterior residential steel, fiberglass and wood doors and entry systems. Co.'s portfolio of brands include Masonite®, Marshfield®, Premdor®, Mohawk®, Megantic®, Algoma®, Birchwood Best®, Lemieux®, Door-Stop™, Harring Doors™ and National Hickman™ .

MSC Industrial Direct Co. Inc. Class A

MSC Industrial Direct Co. is a distributor of metalworking and maintenance, repair and operations (MRO) products and services. The company provides stock-keeping units through its eCommerce channels, including its website, mscdirect.com; its inventory management solutions; catalogs and brochures; and call-centers and branches. The company's range of MRO products includes cutting tools, measuring instruments, tooling components, metalworking products, fasteners, flat stock, raw materials, abrasives, machinery hand and power tools, safety and janitorial supplies, plumbing supplies, materials handling products, power transmission components, and electrical supplies.

Premier Inc. Class A

Premier is a holding company. The company, together with its subsidiaries and affiliates, is a healthcare performance improvement company. The company provides technology-enabled platform that provides supply chain services, clinical, financial, operational and value based care software-as-a-service informatics products, consulting services and performance improvement collaborative programs. The company has two business segments: Supply Chain Services, which assists its members in managing their non-labor expense and capital spend through a combination of products, services and technologies; and Performance Services, which provides information technology analytics and workflow automation and consulting services.

SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO

Southwest Airlines operates Southwest Airlines, a passenger airline that provides scheduled air transportation in the United States and near-international markets. The company has Boeing 737 aircraft in its fleet and serves destinations in various states, the District of Columbia, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, and other near-international countries such as Mexico, Jamaica, The Bahamas, Aruba, Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Belize, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Turks and Caicos. The company principally provides point-to-point service, which allows for direct nonstop routing. The company also provides a suite of digital platforms to support Customers' needs prior to and during the course of their travel.

Sysco Corporation

Sysco, acting through its subsidiaries and divisions, is a distributor of food and related products primarily to the foodservice or food-away-from-home industry. The company has three reportable segments: United States Foodservice Operations, which primarily include United States Broadline operations, which distribute a line of food products, including custom-cut meat, seafood, specialty produce, specialty imports and a variety of non-food products; International Foodservice Operations, which include operations in the Americas and Europe, which distribute a line of food products and a variety of non-food products; and SYGMA, which consists of its United States customized distribution subsidiary.

Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc.

Tanger Factory Outlet Centers is a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust, which focuses on developing, acquiring, owning, operating and managing outlet shopping centers. The company's outlet centers and other assets are held by, and all of its operations are conducted by, Tanger Properties Limited Partnership and subsidiaries (Operating Partnership). The company owns the majority of the units of partnership interest issued by the Operating Partnership through its two wholly-owned subsidiaries, Tanger GP Trust and Tanger LP Trust. Tanger GP Trust controls the Operating Partnership as its sole general partner. Tanger LP Trust holds a limited partnership interest.

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Valens Research

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  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
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  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

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Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

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