Report
Valens Research

ALK - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2019 09 26

Alaska Air Group (ALK:USA) currently trades near recent averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 19.9x Uniform P/E, implying bearish expectations for the firm. Additionally, management may be concerned about the sustainability of RASM improvements, passenger growth, and Paine Field demand.

Specifically, management may be concerned about the sustainability of RASM improvements driven by Saver Fares, and they may be exaggerating the value their miles plan offers to customers. Furthermore, they may lack confidence in their ability to sustain passenger growth in the Pacific Northwest, and they may be concerned about the sustainability of demand for flights out of Paine Field.
Underlying
Alaska Air Group Inc.

Alaska Air Group operates two airlines, Alaska Airlines, Inc. (Alaska) and Horizon Air Industries, Inc. (Horizon). The company's operation also includes McGee Air Services, an aviation services provider. The company has three segments: Mainline, which includes scheduled air transportation on Alaska's Boeing or Airbus jet aircraft for passengers and cargo throughout the United States., and in parts of Canada, Mexico, and Costa Rica; Regional, which includes Horizon's and other third-party carriers' scheduled air transportation for passengers across a shorter distance network within the United States under capacity purchase agreements (CPA); and Horizon, which includes the capacity sold to Alaska under CPA.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

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