ALXN - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2019 05 21
Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALXN:USA) currently trades near historical lows relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 9.1x Uniform P/E, implying bearish expectations for the firm. Moreover, management has concerns about Soliris sales volume growth, their ability to meet patient conversion targets, the potential of ULTOMIRIS, and the progress of trials.Specifically, they may lack confidence in their ability to sustain sales volume growth and Soliris revenue growth in the U.S. and Japan. In addition, they may be exaggerating the value of ULTOMIRIS to patients, and may lack confidence in their ability to reach their Soliris-to-ULTOMIRIS conversion target of 70% within two years. Also, they may be concerned about their ability to complete ULTOMIRIS studies and redefine PNH and HUS care using ULTOMIRIS, and may be concerned about its pricing strategy and the potential of an institutional setting expansion. Furthermore, they may be overstating the expansion of access to ULTOMIRIS, and may be concerned about the progress of trial enrollment in atypical HUS. Finally, they may lack confidence in their ability to start Phase II/III studies for CAEL-101 in early 2020, and may be overstating ALXN1840's potential to improve liver functions.
Alexion Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company serving patients and families affected by rare diseases through the discovery, development and commercialization of therapies. The company has developed and commercialized two complement inhibitors to treat patients with paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria and atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome, as well as the complement inhibitor to treat anti-acetylcholine receptor antibody-positive generalized myasthenia gravis and neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder in patients who are anti-aquaporin-4 antibody positive. In addition, the company has two enzyme replacement therapies for metabolic disorders, hypophosphatasia and lysosomal acid lipase deficiency.
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