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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2019 08 14

NKE currently trades at historical highs relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 28.7x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to expand from 24% in 2019 to 32% in 2024, accompanied by 5% Uniform Asset growth going forward. However, analysts have less bullish expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to only expand to 27% in 2021, accompanied by 5% Uniform Asset growth. Moreover, management may be concerned about growth in China, consumer engagement in Nike Digital, and product innovation. Should NKE see profitability remain flat or even fall from current levels, as negative management sentiment would suggest, downside would be warranted.

CME Q1 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to expand significantly, but management is concerned about contract volume and their NEX acquisition.

VEEV Q1 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to increase but management is concerned about AI implementation, Veeva Nitro, Veeva Vault, future efficiency, and growth.

ASGN Q2 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Although management has concerns about revenue, contract awards, and margins, market expectations are far too bearish, suggesting longer-term upside remains warranted.

ALXN, ASGN, CIEN, CME, CMG, DUK, FLS, GPS, GRUB, HAL, IBM, IRBT, ISRG, JNJ, MSFT, NKE, OMC, PM, SLB, SNA, THRM, VEEV
Underlyings
Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Alexion Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company serving patients and families affected by rare diseases through the discovery, development and commercialization of therapies. The company has developed and commercialized two complement inhibitors to treat patients with paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria and atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome, as well as the complement inhibitor to treat anti-acetylcholine receptor antibody-positive generalized myasthenia gravis and neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder in patients who are anti-aquaporin-4 antibody positive. In addition, the company has two enzyme replacement therapies for metabolic disorders, hypophosphatasia and lysosomal acid lipase deficiency.

ASGN Inc

ASGN provides information technology (IT) and other services in the technology, digital, creative, engineering and life sciences fields across commercial and government sectors. The company's segments are: Apex, which provides technical, digital, creative, scientific and engineering personnel for contract, contract-to-hire, and permanent placement positions to clients across the United States and Canada; Oxford, which provides staffing and permanent placement services in select skill and geographic markets in the United States and Europe; and ECS, which delivers solutions in cloud, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, machine learning, application and IT modernization, science and engineering.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.

Chipotle Mexican Grill together with its subsidiaries operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants, which feature a menu of burritos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla), tacos, and salads. The company operates Chipotle restaurants throughout the United States, international Chipotle restaurants, and non-Chipotle restaurants. The company uses various herbs, spices and seasonings to prepare its meats and vegetables. The company also serves tortilla chips that seasoned with lime juice and salt, with sides of hand mashed guacamole, salsas, or queso. In addition to sodas, fruit and tea drinks, and organic milk, most of the company's restaurants also provide a selection of beer and margaritas.

Ciena Corporation

Ciena is a networking systems, services and software company, providing solutions that enable a range of network operators to deploy and manage networks that deliver services to businesses and consumers. The company provides hardware, software and services that support the transport, switching, aggregation, service delivery and management of video, data and voice traffic on communications networks. The company's solutions are used by communications service providers, cable and multiservice operators, Web-scale providers, submarine network operators, governments, enterprises, research and education institutions and other network operators.

CME Group Inc. Class A

CME Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company exchanges provides a range of global benchmark products across asset classes based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange (FX), agricultural, energy and metal commodities. The company provides futures and options on futures trading across asset classes through its subsidiary, Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (CME) Globex platform, cash and repo fixed income trading via BrokerTec, and cash and OTC FX trading via EBS. In addition, the company operates central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing, a division of CME. The company also provides optimization, reconciliation and processing services through TriOptima, Traiana and Reset.

Duke Energy Corporation

Duke Energy is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company operates as an energy company. The company's segments include: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure, which provides retail electric service through the generation, transmission, distribution and sale of electricity to customers within the Southeast and Midwest regions of the United States; Gas Utilities and Infrastructure, which conducts natural gas operations, as well as owns, operates and has investments in various pipeline transmission and natural gas storage facilities; and Commercial Renewables, which acquires, develops, builds, operates and owns wind and solar renewable generation throughout the continental United States.

Flowserve Corporation

Flowserve is a manufacturer and aftermarket service provider of flow control systems. The company develops and manufactures flow control equipment integral to the movement, control and protection of the flow of materials in its customers' processes. The company's segments are: Flowserve Pump Division, which are for custom, pumps, pre-configured industrial pumps, pump systems, mechanical seals, auxiliary systems and replacement parts and related services; and Flow Control Division, which are for engineered and industrial valves, control valves, actuators and controls and related services.

Gap Inc.

The Gap is an apparel retail company. The company provides apparel, accessories, and personal care products for men, women, and children under the Old Navy, Gap, Banana Republic, Athleta, Intermix, and Hill City brands. The company has stores in the U.S., Canada, the U.K., France, Ireland, Japan, Italy, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Mexico, and has franchise agreements with unaffiliated franchisees to operate Old Navy, Gap, and Banana Republic stores throughout Asia, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. Under these agreements, third parties operate stores that sell apparel and related products under the company's brand names.

Gentherm Incorporated

Gentherm designs, develops, and manufactures thermal management technologies. The company's products provide solutions for automotive passenger comfort, battery thermal management, remote power generation, patient temperature management, and other consumer and industrial temperature control needs. The company has two segments: Automotive, which includes climate comfort systems, automotive cable systems, battery thermal management, and automotive electronic and software systems; and Industrial, which includes the company's remote power generation systems business, its patient temperature management systems business, its environmental testing equipment business and its research and product development division.

GRUBHUB INC

Grubhub and its wholly-owned subsidiaries provide an online and mobile platform for restaurant pick-up and delivery orders. The company connects diners and restaurants through restaurant technology and platforms. Diners enter their delivery address or use geo-location within the mobile applications and the company displays the menus and other relevant information for restaurants in its network. Orders may be placed directly online, via mobile applications or over the phone. The company primarily charges the restaurant a per order commission that is fee based. In several markets, the company also provides delivery services to restaurants on its platform that do not have their own delivery operations.

Halliburton Company

Halliburton assists its customers throughout the lifecycle of the reservoir, from locating hydrocarbons and managing geological data, to drilling and formation evaluation, well construction and completion and optimizing production throughout the life of the asset. The company's segments are: Completion and Production, which delivers cementing, stimulation, intervention, pressure control, specialty chemicals, artificial lift and completion products and services; and Drilling and Evaluation, which provides field and reservoir modeling, drilling, evaluation and wellbore placement solutions that enable customers to model, measure, drill and optimize their well construction activities.

International Business Machines Corporation

International Business Machines provides integrated solutions and products that utilize data, information technology, capability in industries and business processes. The company has five segments: Cloud and Cognitive Software, which provides a range of software offerings; Global Business Services, which provides consulting, systems integration, application management and business process outsourcing services; Global Technology Services, which provides project services, managed and outsourcing services, cloud-delivered services, and technical and IT support services; Systems, which provides technology and service; and Global Financing, which provides client financing, among others.

Intuitive Surgical Inc.

Intuitive Surgical develops, manufactures, and markets the da Vinci? Surgical System and the Ion? endoluminal system. The systems consist of a surgeon console or consoles, a patient-side cart, a vision system, and proprietary instruments and accessories. The company's technology is designed to provide surgeons with a range of motion analogous to the motions of a human wrist, while filtering out the tremors inherent in a surgeon's hands. The company's primary platform for robotic-assisted surgery is its family of da Vinci Surgical Systems. The da Vinci Surgical System allows surgeons to operate while seated at an ergonomic console viewing a three-dimensional image of the surgical field.

IRobot Corporation

iRobot is a consumer robot company. The company's portfolio of solutions features technologies for the connected home and concepts in cleaning, mapping and navigation, human-robot interaction, and physical solutions. The company provides multiple Roomba floor vacuuming robots. The Braava robots automatically dust and damp mop hard-surface floors using cleaning cloths or the company's designed reusable microfiber cloths and include a reservoir that dispenses liquid throughout the cleaning cycle to keep the cloth damp. The robotic lawn mower, Terra t7 is being designed with a mapping and navigation system. Using the engaging Root Coding App, kids can learn coding fundamentals while they play, explore, and create.

Johnson & Johnson

Johnson & Johnson is a holding company engaged in the research and development, manufacture and sale of a range of products in the health care field. The company has three business segments: Consumer, which includes a range of products focused on personal healthcare used in the beauty, over-the-counter pharmaceutical, baby care, oral care, women's health and wound care markets; Pharmaceutical, which is focused on six therapeutic areas: immunology, infectious diseases, neuroscience, oncology, cardiovascular and metabolism and pulmonary hypertension; and Medical Devices, which includes products used in the orthopaedic, surgery, interventional solutions, and eye health fields.

Microsoft Corporation

Microsoft is a technology company. The company develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions. The company provides an array of services, including cloud-based solutions as well as solution support and consulting services. The company also delivers relevant online advertising. The company's products include operating systems; cross-device productivity applications; server applications; business solution applications; desktop and server management tools; software development tools; and video games. The company also designs, manufactures, and sells devices, including personal computers, tablets, gaming and entertainment consoles, other devices, and related accessories.

NIKE Inc. Class B

NIKE is engaged in the design, development and marketing and selling of athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, accessories and services. The company focuses its NIKE Brand product offerings in Running, NIKE Basketball, the Jordan Brand, Football (Soccer), Training and Sportswear categories. The company markets products designed for kids, as well as for other athletic and recreational uses such as American football, baseball, cricket, golf, lacrosse, tennis, walking, and other outdoor activities. The company has license agreements that permit unaffiliated parties to manufacture and sell, using the company-owned trademarks, certain apparel, digital devices and applications and other equipment designed for sports activities.

Omnicom Group Inc

Omnicom Group is a holding company, engaged in providing advertising, marketing and corporate communications services. The company's networks and agencies provide a range of services in the following fundamental disciplines: advertising, customer relationship management, public relations and healthcare. The company's Service offerings include, among others, advertising, branding, content marketing, corporate social responsibility consulting, crisis communications, custom publishing, data analytics, database management, digital/direct marketing, digital transformation, entertainment marketing, experiential marketing, field marketing, financial/corporate business-to-business advertising, and imaging.

Philip Morris International Inc.

Philip Morris International is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a tobacco company engaged in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes, smoke-free products and associated electronic devices and accessories, and other nicotine-containing products in markets outside the United States. The company's portfolio comprises international and local brands including Marlboro, which is complemented in the premium-price category by Parliament. The company's other international cigarette brands are Bond Street, Chesterfield, L&M, Lark and Philip Morris. The company also owns various local cigarette brands, such as Dji Sam Soe, Sampoerna A and Sampoerna U in Indonesia, and Fortune and Jackpot in the Philippines.

Schlumberger NV

Schlumberger provides technology for reservoir characterization, drilling, production and processing to the oil and gas industry. The company has four segments: Reservoir Characterization, which consists of the principal technologies involved in finding and defining hydrocarbon resources; Drilling, which consists of the principal technologies involved in the drilling and positioning of oil and gas wells; Production, which consists of the principal technologies involved in the lifetime production of oil and gas reservoirs; and Cameron, which consists of the principal technologies involved in pressure and flow control for drilling and intervention rigs, oil and gas wells and production facilities.

Snap-on Incorporated

Snap-on is a manufacturer and marketer of tools, equipment, diagnostics, repair information and systems solutions. Products and services include hand and power tools, tool storage, diagnostics software, handheld and PC-based diagnostic products, information and management systems, shop equipment and other solutions for vehicle dealerships and repair centers, as well as for customers in industries, such as aviation and aerospace, agriculture, construction, government and military, mining, natural resources, power generation and technical education. The company also provides financing programs designed to facilitate the sales of its products and support its franchise business.

Veeva Systems Inc Class A

Veeva Systems provides industry cloud solutions for the life sciences industry. Veeva Commercial Cloud is a suite of multichannel customer relationship management applications, a commercial data warehouse, territory allocation and alignment applications, master data management applications and customer reference and data and services. Veeva Vault is the company's suite of cloud-based, enterprise content management applications that address the content management requirements for the company's customers'commercial functions, including medical and sales and marketing, and key research and development functions, including clinical, regulatory, quality, and, when available, safety.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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