Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2020 09 29

MO currently trades below historical averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings,
with an 11.7x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform
ROA to decline from 211% in 2019 to 175% in 2024, accompanied by 6% Uniform asset
shrinkage going forward. However, analysts have bullish expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to improve to 239% by 2021, accompanied by 2% Uniform asset shrinkage. Furthermore, management is confident about their on! brand, Operating Companies Income (OCI) growth, and Anheuser-Busch InBev's (ABI) performance. Current valuations appear to be pricing in overly bearish expectations for MO, and if the company is able to maintain current profitability levels, material upside may be warranted.

SNAP Q2 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to expand, but management may have concerns about growth, e-commerce, and community strength

SWK Q2 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to remain stable, but management may be concerned about margins, products, and acquisitions

EPAM Q2 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to improve, but management may have concerns about revenues, employee utilization, and SG&A

MO, EPAM, SNAP, SWK, ALXN, ANET, CAH, ETN, FLT, GPN, HOLX, MAS, MKSI, MSCI, NEE, REGN, SPGI, TTD, VRSK, WDC
Underlyings
Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Alexion Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company serving patients and families affected by rare diseases through the discovery, development and commercialization of therapies. The company has developed and commercialized two complement inhibitors to treat patients with paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria and atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome, as well as the complement inhibitor to treat anti-acetylcholine receptor antibody-positive generalized myasthenia gravis and neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder in patients who are anti-aquaporin-4 antibody positive. In addition, the company has two enzyme replacement therapies for metabolic disorders, hypophosphatasia and lysosomal acid lipase deficiency.

Altria Group Inc

Altria Group is a holding company. The company's subsidiaries include: Philip Morris USA Inc., which is engaged in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes; John Middleton Co., which is engaged in the manufacture and sale of machine-made cigars and pipe tobacco; Sherman Group Holdings, LLC and its subsidiaries, which are engaged in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes and the sale of cigars; and UST LLC, which through its subsidiaries, including U.S. Smokeless Tobacco Company LLC and Ste. Michelle Wine Estates Ltd., is engaged in the manufacture and sale of smokeless tobacco products and wine. The products of the company's tobacco subsidiaries include smokeable tobacco products and machine-made cigars.

Arista Networks Inc.

Arista Networks is engaged in providing cloud networking solutions, which consist of its Extensible Operating System (EOS), a set of network applications and its Ethernet switching and routing platforms. The programmability of EOS enable the company to create a set of software applications that address the requirements of cloud networking, including workflow automation, network visibility and analytics, and enable the company to integrate with third-party applications for virtualization, management, automation, orchestration and network services. EOS supports cloud and virtualization solutions, including VMware NSX, Microsoft System Center, OpenStack and other cloud management frameworks.

Cardinal Health Inc.

Cardinal Health is a healthcare services and products company providing customized solutions for hospitals, healthcare systems, pharmacies, ambulatory surgery centers, clinical laboratories and physician offices. The company's segments include: Pharmaceutical and Medical. The company's Pharmaceutical segment distributes branded and generic pharmaceutical, specialty pharmaceutical and over-the-counter healthcare and consumer products in the United States. The company's Medical segment manufactures, sources and distributes Cardinal Health branded medical, surgical and laboratory products, which are sold in the United States, Canada, Europe, Asia and other markets.

Eaton Corp. Plc

EPAM Systems Inc.

Epam Systems is a provider of software product development and digital platform engineering services to customers located around the world, primarily in North America, Europe, Asia and Australia. The company's industry services include financial services, travel and consumer, software and hi-tech, business information and media, life sciences and healthcare, as well as other industries.

FLEETCOR Technologies Inc.

FleetCor Technologies is provider of commercial payment solutions. The company's five primary product lines are Fuel, which provides fuel payment solutions to businesses and government entities who operate vehicle fleets, as well as to main oil companies;Lodging, which provides lodging payment solutions to employees who travel overnight for work purposes; Tolls, which provides an electronic toll and parking payments product; Corporate Payments, which include virtual cards, purchasing cards, travel and entertainment cards; and Gift, which provides gift card product management and processing services. Additionally, the company provides other payment products including fleet maintenance and employee benefits.

Global Payments Inc.

Global Payments is a pure play payment technology company providing payments and software solutions to merchants and financial institutions. The company has three segments: Merchant Solutions, which includes authorization services, chargeback resolution, and payment security services; Issuer Solutions, which provides solutions that enable financial institutions and other financial service providers to manage their card portfolios and reduces technical difficulty and overhead on a single platform; and Business and Consumer Solutions, which provides general purpose reloadable prepaid debit and payroll cards, demand deposit accounts and other financial service solutions through its Netspend? brand.

Hologic Inc.

Hologic is a developer, manufacturer and supplier of diagnostics products, medical imaging systems, surgical products and light-based aesthetic and medical treatment systems. The company's segments are: Diagnostics, which provides diagnostic products which are used to aid in the diagnosis of human diseases; Breast Health, which provides solutions for breast cancer care for radiology, pathology and surgery; Medical Aesthetics, which provides aesthetic treatment systems, including SculpSure, PicoSure and MonaLisa Touch; GYN Surgical, which includes NovaSure Endometrial Ablation System to treat abnormal uterine bleeding; and Skeletal Health, which includes the Horizon DXA, a dual energy x-ray system.

Masco Corporation

Masco designs, manufactures and distributes home improvement and building products. The company's Plumbing Products include faucets, showerheads, handheld showers, valves, bath hardware and accessories, bathing units, shower bases and enclosures and toilets. This segment also includes brass, copper and composite plumbing system components and other non-decorative plumbing products. The company's Decorative Architectural Products include cabinet and door hardware, functional hardware, wall plates, hook and hook rail products, and picture hanging accessories. This segment also includes decorative indoor and outdoor lighting fixtures, ceiling fans, landscape lighting and LED lighting systems.

MKS Instruments Inc.

MKS Instruments is a provider of instruments, subsystems and process control solutions. The company has two segments: Vacuum & Analysis, which provides instruments, components, subsystems and software which are derived from its knowledge in pressure measurement and control, flow measurement and control, gas and vapor delivery, gas composition analysis, residual gas analysis, leak detection, control and information technology, ozone generation and delivery, radio frequency and data communication power, reactive gas generation and vacuum technology; and Light & Motion, which provides instruments, components and subsystems which are derived from its knowledge in lasers, photonics and optics.

MSCI Inc. Class A

MSCI is a provider of decision support tools and services for the global investment community. The company's segments are: Index, in which Clients use the company's indexes in various areas of the investment process, including index-linked product creation; Analytics, which provides risk management, performance attribution and portfolio management content, applications and services; Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG), which helps institutional investors understand how ESG considerations can impact the long-term risk and reward of their portfolio and individual security-level investments; and Real Estate, which includes research, reporting, market data and benchmarking offerings.

NextEra Energy Inc.

NextEra Energy is a holding company, engaged in electric power and energy infrastructure. The company has two principal businesses, Florida Power & Light Company (FPL) and NextEra Energy Resources, LLC (NEER). FPL is a rate-regulated electric utility engaged primarily in the generation, transmission, distribution and sale of electric energy in Florida. FPL provides service to its electric customers through a transmission and distribution system that links its generation facilities to its customers. NEER, through its subsidiaries, owns, develops, constructs, manages and operates electric generation facilities in wholesale energy markets primarily in the United States and Canada.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals is a biotechnology company that discovers, invents, develops, manufactures, and commercializes medicines for the treatment of diseases. The company's commercialized medicines and product candidates in development are designed to assist patients with eye disease, allergic and inflammatory diseases, cancer, cardiovascular and metabolic diseases, neuromuscular diseases, infectious diseases, and rare diseases. The company's products include: EYLEA (aflibercept) injection, which is used for the treatment of neovascular age-related macular degeneration, diabetic macular edema; and Dupixent (dupilumab) injection, which is used for the treatment of adult patients with atopic dermatitis.

S&P Global Inc.

S&P Global is a provider of transparent and independent ratings, benchmarks, analytics and data to the capital and commodity markets worldwide. The company's segments include: S&P Global Ratings, which provides credit ratings, research and analytics; S&P Global Market Intelligence, which provides multi-asset-class data, research and analytical capabilities that integrate cross-asset analytics and desktop services; S&P Global Platts, which provides information and benchmark prices for the commodity and energy markets; and S&P Dow Jones Indices, which provides a variety of valuation and index benchmarks for investment advisors, wealth managers and institutional investors.

Snap Inc. Class A

Snap is a camera company. The company's primary product, Snapchat, is a camera application that helps people to communicate visually through short videos and images called Snaps. The company's products are: Camera, which includes tools for people to personalize their Snaps; Chat, which includes interacting with friends on Snapchat; Discover, which includes providing Stories and Shows from publishers, creators, and the community; Snap Map, which shows a live map of the user's location; Memories, which enables users to save the Snaps they create in a personal collection called Memories; and Spectacles, which includes creating Memories by using Spectacles, which are the company's sunglasses that make Snaps.

Stanley Black & Decker Inc.

Stanley Black & Decker is a provider of hand tools, power tools and related accessories, engineered fastening systems and products, services and equipment for oil and gas and infrastructure applications, commercial electronic security and monitoring systems, healthcare solutions, and automatic doors. The company's segments include: Tools and Storage, which is comprised of the power tools and equipment and hand tools, accessories and storage businesses; Industrial, which is comprised of the engineered fastening and infrastructure businesses; and Security, which is comprised of the convergent security solutions and the mechanical access solutions businesses.

Trade Desk Inc. Class A

The Trade Desk is a technology company for buyers of advertising. Through the company's self-service, cloud-based platform, ad buyers can create, manage, and optimize data-driven digital advertising campaigns across ad formats, including display, video, audio, native and social, on a multitude of devices, such as computers, mobile devices, and connected TV. The company's platform's integrations with data, inventory, and publisher partners provides ad buyers reach and decisioning capabilities, and its enterprise application programming interfaces enable its customers to develop on top of the platform.

Verisk Analytics Inc

Verisk Analytics is a data analytics provider serving customers in insurance, energy and specialized markets, and financial services. The company has three segments: Insurance, which provides underwriting and ratings and claims insurance data for the United States property and casualty insurance industry; Energy and Specialized Markets, which provides research and consulting data analytics for the global energy, chemicals, and metals and mining industries; and Financial Services, which provides benchmarking, decisioning algorithms, business intelligence, and customized analytic services to financial institutions, payment networks and processors, alternative lenders, regulators and merchants.

Western Digital Corporation

Western Digital is a developer, manufacturer, and provider of data storage devices and solutions. The company's portfolio of technology and products address the following markets: Client Devices, which consist of hard disk drives (HDDs) and solid state drives (SSDs) for computing devices, flash-based embedded storage products, and flash-based memory wafers and components; Data Center Devices and Solutions, which consist of enterprise HDDs and enterprise SSDs, data center software and system solutions; and Client Solutions, which consist of HDDs and SSDs embedded into external storage products and removable flash-based products, such as cards, universal serial bus flash drives and wireless drives.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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