Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2021 01 12

LPLA has significantly transformed their business returns, but the market is expecting the
company to give operational improvements back. The market is expecting UAFRS-based
(Uniform) ROA (ROA') to fade from 30% in 2019 to 20% in 2024, with Uniform Asset growth
slowing to a modest 5% a year going forward.

The market does not think the company's improvement in Uniform ROA from 15%-20% levels historically to towards 30%+ is sustainable, and is expecting the company to see its operating leverage reverse.

The market does not appear to recognize that as LPLA has gained scale in both its legacy brokerage business, and its platform business for RIAs and independent advisors and brokers, it will continue to see returns expand, not decline back to historical norms.

LPLA's management's compensation framework aligns them to focus on continuing to accumulate assets and advisors, and improving advisor experience to retain their assets. This and the company's investment in technology will drive returns higher.

Also, management has shown building confidence in the past few calls about their outlook.
Management has confidence about product offering, and AUM growth. They are also confident about seeing operating leverage improve for the business, their M&A strategy, and around their value proposition to potential RIAs and brokers.

Considering the market's disbelief in the sustainability of the company's strategy, the company's strong operational framework, robust execution, management's appropriate alignment, and strong positive fundamental momentum, there appears to be material near-term and long-term equity upside for LPLA.

CSX Q3 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are Uniform ROA to reach record highs, but management may have concerns about volumes, investments, and pricing levels

PANW Q1 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to remain stable, but management is optimistic about their billings, cloud AI security, and transparency

MSCI Q3 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to reach record highs, but management may have concerns about ESG, indices, and partnerships

LPLA, CSX, MSCI, PANW, ALXN, BKNG, BSX, CCI, DBD, EW, FLT, GILD, ILMN, ITRI, ITW, NVDA, PII, SPGI, VRSK, ZG
Underlyings
Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Alexion Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company serving patients and families affected by rare diseases through the discovery, development and commercialization of therapies. The company has developed and commercialized two complement inhibitors to treat patients with paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria and atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome, as well as the complement inhibitor to treat anti-acetylcholine receptor antibody-positive generalized myasthenia gravis and neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder in patients who are anti-aquaporin-4 antibody positive. In addition, the company has two enzyme replacement therapies for metabolic disorders, hypophosphatasia and lysosomal acid lipase deficiency.

Booking Holdings Inc.

Booking Holdings provides travel and restaurant online reservation and related services. The company's brands include: Booking.com and Rentalcars.com, in which Booking.com provides booking online accommodation reservations, based on room nights booked, and Rentalcars.com provides online rental car reservation services; KAYAK, which provides an online price comparison service; Priceline, which provides consumers hotel, rental car and airline ticket reservation services, and vacation packages and cruises; Agoda, which is an online accommodation reservation service; and OpenTable, which provides online restaurant reservation services to consumers and reservation management services to restaurants.

BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION

Boston Scientific develops, manufactures and markets medical devices. The company's Medical Surgical segment consist of: Endoscopy, which develops and manufactures devices to diagnose and treat a range of gastrointestinal and pulmonary conditions; and Urology and Pelvic Health, which develops and manufactures devices to treat various urological and pelvic conditions. The company's Rhythm and Neuro segment includes: Cardiac Rhythm Management, which develops and manufactures implantable devices to treat cardiac abnormalities; and Electrophysiology, which develops and manufactures medical technologies used in the diagnosis and treatment of rate and rhythm disorders of the heart.

Crown Castle International Corp

Crown Castle International is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company owns, operates and leases shared communications infrastructure that is geographically dispersed throughout the U.S., including towers and other structures, such as rooftops (collectively, towers), and fiber primarily supporting small cell networks (small cells) and fiber solutions. The company's towers, fiber and small cells assets are collectively referred to herein as communications infrastructure. The company's core business is providing access, including space or capacity, to its shared communications infrastructure via long-term contracts in various forms, including lease, license, sublease and service agreements.

CSX Corporation

CSX provides rail-based freight transportation services. The company's principal operating subsidiary, CSX Transportation, Inc., provides a link to the transportation supply chain through its rail network, which serves centers in states east of the Mississippi River, the District of Columbia and the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec. The company's CSX Intermodal Terminals, Inc. subsidiary owns and operates a system of intermodal terminals, primarily in the eastern United States and also performs drayage services (the pickup and delivery of intermodal shipments). The company's Total Distribution Services, Inc. subsidiary serves the automotive industry with distribution centers and storage locations.

Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated

Diebold Nixdorf is engaged in enabling Connected Commerce?. The company automates, digitizes and transforms the way people bank and shop. The company's integrated solutions connect digital and physical channels for consumers. The company's operating structure is focused on its two customer segments consisting of Banking and Retail. The products for banking customers consist of cash recyclers and dispensers, deposit terminals, teller automation and kiosk technologies, as well as physical security solutions. The retail product portfolio includes modular, integrated and mobile point of sale and self-checkout terminals that meet automation and omnichannel requirements of consumers.

EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORP

Edwards Lifesciences is engaged in patient-focused medical for structural heart disease, as well as critical care and surgical monitoring. The company is a manufacturer of heart valve systems and repair products used to replace or repair a patient's diseased or defective heart valve. The company is also engaged in hemodynamic and noninvasive brain and tissue oxygenation monitoring systems used to measure a patient's cardiovascular function in the hospital setting. The company's products and technologies are categorized into four main areas: Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement, Transcatheter Mitral and Tricuspid Therapies, Surgical Structural Heart, and Critical Care.

FLEETCOR Technologies Inc.

FleetCor Technologies is provider of commercial payment solutions. The company's five primary product lines are Fuel, which provides fuel payment solutions to businesses and government entities who operate vehicle fleets, as well as to main oil companies;Lodging, which provides lodging payment solutions to employees who travel overnight for work purposes; Tolls, which provides an electronic toll and parking payments product; Corporate Payments, which include virtual cards, purchasing cards, travel and entertainment cards; and Gift, which provides gift card product management and processing services. Additionally, the company provides other payment products including fleet maintenance and employee benefits.

Gilead Sciences Inc.

Gilead Sciences is a research-based biopharmaceutical company that discovers, develops and commercializes medicines. The company's primary areas of focus include viral diseases, inflammatory and fibrotic diseases and oncology. The company's products include: Biktarvy for the treatment of HIV-1 infection in certain patients; Vosevi?, a single tablet regimen of sofosbuvir, velpatasvir and voxilaprevir for the re-treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus infection in adults; Vemlidy? for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B virus infection in adults with compensated liver disease; and Yescarta (axicabtagene ciloleucel) for the treatment of adult patients with relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphoma.

Illinois Tool Works Inc.

Illinois Tool Works manufactures a range of industrial products and equipment. Automotive OEM segment produces components and fasteners for automotive-related applications. Food Equipment segment is engaged in commercial food equipment. Test and Measurement and Electronics segment produces equipment for testing and measuring of materials and structures. Welding segment produces arc welding equipment, consumables and accessories. Polymers and Fluids segment produces adhesives, sealants, lubrication and cutting fluids for auto aftermarket maintenance. Construction Products segment supplies fastening systems and solutions. Specialty Products segment is focused on patent protection.

Illumina Inc.

Illumina is engaged in sequencing- and array-based solutions for genetic and genomic analysis. The company provides whole-genome sequencing, genotyping, noninvasive prenatal testing (NIPT), and product support services. Using the company's services, customers can perform whole-genome sequencing projects and microarray projects (including large-scale genotyping studies and whole-genome association studies). The company provides NIPT services through its partner laboratories that direct samples to the company on a test send-out basis in its Clinical Laboratory Improvements Amendments-certified, College of Pathologists-accredited laboratory. The company also provides support services to customers who have purchased its products.

Itron Inc.

Itron is engaged in the Industrial Internet of Things, providing solutions that enable utilities and municipalities to operate their infrastructure. The company's solutions include the deployment of smart networks, software, services, devices, sensors, and data analytics. The company's solutions and data analytics address the challenges facing the energy, water, and municipality sectors, including non-technical loss, leak detection, and environmental and regulatory compliance. The company also provides managed services, software-as-a-service, technical support services, licensing hardware technology, and consulting services. The company operates under three segments: Device Solutions, Networked Solutions, and Outcomes.

LPL Financial Holdings Inc.

LPL Financial Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the retail financial advice market and independent broker-dealer. The company's product and solution access includes: Commission-Based Products, which include variable and fixed annuities, mutual funds, equities, and insurance, among others; Fee-Based Advisory Platforms and Support, which include wrap-fee programs, mutual fund asset allocation programs, financial planning services, and retirement plan consulting services; and Cash Sweep Programs, which manage their clients' cash balances through a money market sweep vehicle involving money market fund providers and insured sweep vehicles involving banks.

MSCI Inc. Class A

MSCI is a provider of decision support tools and services for the global investment community. The company's segments are: Index, in which Clients use the company's indexes in various areas of the investment process, including index-linked product creation; Analytics, which provides risk management, performance attribution and portfolio management content, applications and services; Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG), which helps institutional investors understand how ESG considerations can impact the long-term risk and reward of their portfolio and individual security-level investments; and Real Estate, which includes research, reporting, market data and benchmarking offerings.

NVIDIA Corporation

NVIDIA engages in graphics processing unit (GPU)-based visual computing and accelerated computing platforms. The company has two segments, GPU and Tegra Processor, which are based on a single underlying architecture. The company's GPU product brands are aimed at markets including GeForce for gamers; Quadro for designers; Tesla and DGX for artificial intelligence data scientists and big data researchers; and GRID for cloud-based visual computing users. The company's Tegra brand integrates an entire computer onto a single chip, and incorporates GPUs and multi-core CPUs to drive supercomputing for autonomous robots, drones, and cars, as well as for game consoles and mobile gaming and entertainment devices.

Palo Alto Networks Inc.

Palo Alto Networks provides a platform that allows enterprises, service providers, and government entities to secure their organizations. The company's platform uses a traffic classification engine that identifies network traffic by application, user, and content and provides security across the network, endpoint, and cloud. The company's product, subscription, and support offerings include: firewall appliances and software; and Panorama, which is a centralized security management solution for global control of various firewall appliances and software deployed on an end-customer's network as well as in their instances in public or private cloud environments as a virtual appliance or a physical appliance.

Polaris Inc.

Polaris designs, engineers and manufactures powersports vehicles which include, off-road vehicles, including all-terrain vehicles and side-by-side vehicles for recreational and utility use, snowmobiles, motorcycles, global adjacent markets vehicles, including commercial, government and defense vehicles, and boats. The company's products, together with related Parts, Garments and Accessories, as well as aftermarket accessories and apparel, are sold through dealers, distributors and retail stores principally located in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, Australia and Mexico.

S&P Global Inc.

S&P Global is a provider of transparent and independent ratings, benchmarks, analytics and data to the capital and commodity markets worldwide. The company's segments include: S&P Global Ratings, which provides credit ratings, research and analytics; S&P Global Market Intelligence, which provides multi-asset-class data, research and analytical capabilities that integrate cross-asset analytics and desktop services; S&P Global Platts, which provides information and benchmark prices for the commodity and energy markets; and S&P Dow Jones Indices, which provides a variety of valuation and index benchmarks for investment advisors, wealth managers and institutional investors.

Verisk Analytics Inc

Verisk Analytics is a data analytics provider serving customers in insurance, energy and specialized markets, and financial services. The company has three segments: Insurance, which provides underwriting and ratings and claims insurance data for the United States property and casualty insurance industry; Energy and Specialized Markets, which provides research and consulting data analytics for the global energy, chemicals, and metals and mining industries; and Financial Services, which provides benchmarking, decisioning algorithms, business intelligence, and customized analytic services to financial institutions, payment networks and processors, alternative lenders, regulators and merchants.

Zillow Group Inc. Class A

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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