Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2021 03 23

LPLA has significantly transformed their business returns, but the market is expecting the
company to give operational improvements back. The market is expecting UAFRS-based
(Uniform) ROA (ROA') to fade from 30% in 2019 to 18% in 2024, with Uniform asset growth of around 7.5% a year going forward.

The market does not think the company's improvement in Uniform ROA from 15%-20% levels historically to towards 30%+ is sustainable, and is expecting the company to see its operating leverage reverse.

The market does not appear to recognize that as LPLA has gained scale in both its legacy
brokerage business, and its platform business for RIAs and independent advisors and brokers, it will continue to see returns expand, not decline back to historic norms.

LPLA's management's compensation framework aligns them to focus on continuing to
accumulate assets and advisors, and improving advisor experience to retain their assets. This and the company's investment in technology will drive returns higher.

Also, management has shown building confidence in the past few calls about their outlook.
Management has confidence about product offering, and AUM growth. They are also confident about seeing operating leverage improve for the business, and their M&A strategy, and around their value proposition to potential RIAs and brokers.

Considering the market's disbelief in the sustainability of the company's strategy, the
company's strong operational framework, robust execution, management's appropriate
alignment, and strong positive fundamental momentum, there appears to be material
near-term and long-term equity upside for LPLA.

SBUX Q1 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to reach new peaks, but management may have concerns about revenues, margins, and growth in China

KMB Q4 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to remain stable, but management may have concerns about their personal care business, tissue demand, and market share

ROP Q4 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for record-high Uniform ROA, but management may have concerns about revenue growth, free cash flow, and customer engagement

LPLA, KMB, ROP, SBUX, ALGN, APH, BA, BHC, EXLS, HCA, HUBB, KFY, LIVN, MDLZ, NOC, NXPI, PLD, SHW, TMO, TXN, VFC
Underlyings
Align Technology Inc.

Align Technology is a medical device company engaged in the design, manufacture and marketing of Invisalign? clear aligners and iTero? intraoral scanners and services for orthodontics, restorative and aesthetic dentistry. The company's segments are: Clear Aligner, which includes the Invisalign System, a method for treating malocclusion based on a proprietary computer-simulated virtual treatment plan and a series of doctor-prescribed, custom manufactured, clear plastic, removable aligners; and Scanners and Services, which includes Intraoral scanning that enables the dental practitioner to create a 3D image of the patient's teeth (digital scan) using a handheld intraoral scanner.

Amphenol Corporation Class A

Amphenol is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of electrical, electronic and fiber optic connectors and interconnect systems, antennas, sensors and sensor-based products and coaxial and high-speed cable. The company's segments are: Interconnect Products and Assemblies, which designs, manufactures and markets a range of connector and connector systems, and other products, including antennas and sensors, used in a range of applications in a set of end markets; and Cable Products and Solutions, which designs, manufactures and markets cable, products and components for use primarily in the broadband communications and information technology markets as well as certain applications in other markets.

Bausch Health Companies Inc.

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International is a pharmaceutical and medical device company that develops, manufactures, and markets a range of branded, generic and branded generic pharmaceuticals, over-the-counter (OTC) products, and medical devices (contact lenses, intraocular lenses, ophthalmic surgical equipment, and aesthetics devices). Co. has two operating and reportable segments: Developed Markets, which focuses in dermatology, neurology, gastrointestinal disorders, and eye health therapeutic; and Emerging Markets, which focuses primarily on branded generics, OTC products, and medical devices.

BOEING COMPANY (THE)

The Boeing is an aerospace firm. The company's segments include: Commercial Airplanes, which develops, produces and markets commercial jet aircraft and provides fleet support services, mainly to the commercial airline industry; Defense, Space and Security, which engages in the research, development, production and modification of manned and unmanned military aircraft and weapons systems for strike, surveillance and mobility, vertical lift, and commercial derivative aircraft; Global Services, which provides supply chain and logistics management, pilot and maintenance training systems and services, and data analytics and digital services; and Boeing Capital, which manages overall financing exposure.

ExlService Holdings Inc.

ExlService Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an operations management and analytics company. The company's operations management services involve the transfer to the company's business operations of a client such as claims processing, clinical operations, or financial transaction processing, after which the company administers and manages those operations for its client on an ongoing basis, or in case of consulting, consulting services related to transformation services, including digital transformation services. The company's Analytics services focus on driving business outcomes for its customers by generating data-driven insights across various parts of its customers' business.

HCA Healthcare Inc

HCA Healthcare is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, partnerships and joint ventures, the company owns and operates hospitals and related health care entities. Most of the company's general, acute care hospitals provide medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic services and emergency services. The general, acute care hospitals also provide outpatient services such as outpatient surgery, laboratory, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology and physical therapy. The company's psychiatric hospitals provide therapeutic programs including child, adolescent and adult psychiatric care, adolescent and adult alcohol and drug abuse treatment and counseling.

Hubbell Incorporated Class B

Hubbell is primarily engaged in the design, manufacture and sale of electrical and electronic products for a range of non-residential and residential construction, industrial and utility applications. The company has two segments: Electrical, which comprised of businesses that sell stock and custom products including application wiring device products, electrical products, connector and grounding products, lighting fixtures and controls, components and assemblies, as well as other electrical equipment; and Power, which consists of operations for the design, manufacture and sale of transmission and distribution components primarily for the electrical utilities industry.

Kimberly-Clark Corporation

Kimberly-Clark is principally engaged in the manufacturing and marketing of a range of products primarily made from natural or synthetic fibers using technologies in fibers, nonwovens and absorbency. The company is organized into three operating segments: Personal Care, which provides solutions and products such as disposable diapers, training and youth pants, swimpants, baby wipes, feminine and incontinence care products, and other related products; Consumer Tissue, which provides facial and bathroom tissue, paper towels, napkins and related products; and K-C Professional, which provides a range of solutions and supporting products such as wipers, tissue, towels, apparel, soaps and sanitizers.

Korn Ferry

Korn Ferry is an organizational consulting firm. The company is engaged in the business of giving client awareness to its range of talent management solutions. The company's segments include: Executive Search, in which the company's services are used to fill executive-level positions, such as board directors, chief executive officers, chief operating officers, chief information officers, chief human resource officers and other senior executive officers; Advisory, which helps clients design their organization and shows them the way to compensate, develop and motivate their people; and RPO and Professional Search, which combines people, process personnel and intellectual property enabled technology.

LivaNova Plc

LivaNova is a medical device company focused on the development and delivery of therapeutic solutions. Co. has three product franchises: Neuromodulation, which engaged in the design, development and marketing of neuromodulation therapy for the treatment of drug-resistant epilepsy and treatment resistant depression; Cardiac Surgery, which engaged in the development, production and sale of cardiovascular surgery products; and Cardiac Rhythm Management, which engaged in the development, manufacturing and marketing of products for the diagnosis, treatment, and management of heart rhythm disorders and heart failure.

LPL Financial Holdings Inc.

LPL Financial Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the retail financial advice market and independent broker-dealer. The company's product and solution access includes: Commission-Based Products, which include variable and fixed annuities, mutual funds, equities, and insurance, among others; Fee-Based Advisory Platforms and Support, which include wrap-fee programs, mutual fund asset allocation programs, financial planning services, and retirement plan consulting services; and Cash Sweep Programs, which manage their clients' cash balances through a money market sweep vehicle involving money market fund providers and insured sweep vehicles involving banks.

Mondelez International Inc. Class A

Mondelez International sells food and beverage products. The company makes and sells primarily snacks, including biscuits (cookies, crackers and salted snacks), chocolate, gum and candy, as well as various cheese and grocery and powdered beverage products. The company's portfolio includes snack brands such as Cadbury, Milka and Toblerone chocolate; Oreo, belVita and LU biscuits; Halls candy; Trident gum and Tang powdered beverages. The company's operations and management structure are organized into four operating segments: Latin America; Asia, Middle East and Africa; Europe; and North America. The company sells its products to supermarket chains, wholesalers, supercenters, value stores and other retail food outlets.

Northrop Grumman Corporation

Northrop Grumman is a security company. The company's segments include: Aerospace Systems, which is engaged in the design, development, integration and production of manned aircraft, autonomous systems, spacecraft, high-energy laser systems, microelectronics and other systems and subsystems; Innovation Systems, which is engaged in the design, development, integration and production of flight, armament and space systems; Mission Systems, which is engaged in end-to-end mission solutions and multifunction systems; and Technology Services, which is engaged in delivering solutions and services in support of mission-critical networks and systems.

NXP Semiconductors NV

NXP Semiconductors is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged as a global semiconductor company and a long-standing supplier in the industry. Co. provides High-Performance Mixed-Signal and Standard Product solutions. Co.'s product solutions are used in automotive, identification, wireless infrastructure, lighting, industrial, mobile, consumer and computing applications. Co. engages with original equipment manufacturers (OEM) and sell products in all major geographic regions.

Prologis Inc.

Prologis is a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust and is the sole general partner of Prologis, L.P. The company owns, manages and develops logistics facilities, with a focus on the consumption side of the global supply chain. Most of the company's properties in the United States are wholly owned, while its properties outside the United States are primarily held in co-investment ventures. The company has two segments: Real Estate Operations, which represents the ownership and development of operating properties, and includes land held for development and properties under development; and Strategic Capital, which represents the management of unconsolidated co-investment ventures.

ROPER TECHNOLOGIES INC.

Roper Technologies designs and develops software and engineered products and solutions for a variety of end markets. The company has four segments: Application Software, which includes Aderant, CBORD, CliniSys, and Data Innovations; Network Software and Systems, which includes ConstructConnect, DAT, Foundry, Inovonics; Measurement and Analytical Solutions, which includes Alpha, CIVCO Medical Solutions, CIVCO Radiotherapy, Dynisco, FMI, Hansen, Hardy, IPA, Logitech, Neptune, Northern Digital, Struers, Technolog, Uson, Verathon; and Process Technologies, which includes AMOT, CCC, Cornell, FTI, Metrix, PAC, Roper Pump, Viatran, Zetec.

Sherwin-Williams Company

Sherwin-Williams is engaged in the development, manufacture, distribution and sale of paint, coatings and related products to industrial, commercial and retail customers. The company's segments are: The Americas Group, which markets and sells Sherwin-Williams? and other controlled brand architectural paint and coatings, protective and marine products, OEM product finishes and related products; Consumer Brands Group, which supplies architectural paints, stains, varnishes, and industrial products, among others; and Performance Coatings Group, which develops and sells industrial coatings, automotive refinish, protective and marine coatings, coil coatings, packaging coatings and resins and colorants.

Starbucks Corporation

Starbucks is a roaster, marketer and retailer of coffee. The company's segments are: Americas, which is inclusive of the United States, Canada, and Latin America; International, which is inclusive of China, Japan, Asia Pacific, Europe, Middle East, and Africa; and Channel Development. The company's Americas and International segments include both company-operated and licensed stores. The company's Channel Development segment includes roasted whole bean and ground coffees, Seattle's Best Coffee?, Starbucks- and Teavana-branded single-serve products, a variety of ready-to-drink beverages, and other products sold worldwide outside of the company's company-operated and licensed stores.

Texas Instruments Incorporated

Texas Instruments designs and makes semiconductors that it sells to electronics designers and manufacturers. The company has two reportable segments: Analog and Embedded Processing. The company's analog semiconductors change signals, such as sound, temperature, pressure or images to a stream of digital data. The company's analog segment primary product lines includes: power, signal chain, and high volume. The company's embedded processors are designed to handle specific tasks and can be optimized for various combinations of performance, power and cost, depending on the application. The company's embedded processing segment primary product lines includes: connected microcontrollers and processors.

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.

Thermo Fisher Scientific is engaged in serving science. The company's segments include: Life Sciences Solutions, which provides reagents, instruments and consumables used in biological and medical research, discovery and production of new drugs and vaccines as well as diagnosis of disease; Analytical Instruments, which provides instruments, consumables, software and services that are used for a range of applications in the laboratory, on the production line and in the field; and Specialty Diagnostics, which provides diagnostic test kits, reagents, culture media, instruments and associated products for customers in healthcare, clinical, pharmaceutical, industrial, and food safety laboratories.

V.F. Corporation

VF is an apparel and footwear company. The company designs, produces, procures, markets and distributes a variety of lifestyle products, including outerwear, footwear, occupational and performance apparel, jeanswear, backpacks and luggage for consumers of all ages. Products are marketed primarily under the company-owned brand names. The company's segment comprised of: Outdoor, which includes performance-based and outdoor apparel, footwear and equipment; Active, which includes active apparel, footwear and accessories; Work, which consists of work and work-inspired lifestyle apparel and footwear and occupational apparel; and Jeans, which markets denim and related casual apparel products.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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