Report
Valens Research

ALGT - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2019 12 13

Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT:USA) currently trades below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 16.5x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market has bearish expectations for the firm, and management may be concerned about their EPS, operating margins, and Sunseeker.

Specifically, management may be exaggerating the cost savings they will realize from their new fleet, and they may be concerned about the impact of costs incurred from their Sunseeker initiative. Furthermore, they may lack confidence in their ability to sustain their operating margin above 20%, meet their revised EPS guidance for 2019, and sustain reduced airline unit and fuel costs.
Underlying
ALLEGIANT TRAVEL CO

Allegiant Travel is a travel company. The company's travel services and products are: scheduled service air transportation, which provides scheduled air transportation on flights mainly between cities and other destinations; ancillary air-related products and services, which provides unbundled air-related services and products in conjunction with air transportation; third party products and services, which provides third party travel products such as hotel rooms and ground transportation for sale to its passengers; and fixed fee contract air transportation, which provides air transportation through fixed fee agreements and charter service on a year-round and ad-hoc basis.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
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  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

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