Report
Valens Research

ALLE - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 11 12

Allegion plc (ALLE) currently trades above corporate and historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 26.0x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to expand to 38%, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to remain at 31% levels through 2022, accompanied by 1% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $91, representing approximately 27% equity downside for the firm.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about pricing, supply chain pressures, results, and long-term fundamentals.
Underlying
Allegion PLC

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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Valens Research

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