Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2020 06 30

ADS currently trades at a historical low relative to Uniform earnings, with a 6.2x Uniform P/E (Fwd V/E′). At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to decline from 61% in 2019 to a 17% trough in 2024, accompanied by 8% Uniform asset shrinkage going forward. Meanwhile, analysts have less bearish expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to fall to 35% in 2020, driven by coronavirus headwinds, before recovering to 50% in 2021, accompanied by 13% Uniform asset shrinkage. Moreover, management is confident about customer payments, their liquidity, and their ability to pay their debt service. Current valuations appear to be pricing in overly bearish expectations for ADS, and should the firm maintain its profitability, or even just meet modest analyst expectations, material upside would be warranted.

LCII Q1 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to decline, but management is excited about vacation trends and retail, and confident about demand

WEX Q1 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to remain stable, but management may have concerns about growth, leverage, and their acquisition termination

RFP Q1 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for a positive Uniform ROA inflection, but management may be concerned about demand, capacity, and market uncertainty

ADS, LCII, RFP, WEX, B, CPB, DLTR, DVN, ENTG, FAST, FOXF, GME, KO, LLY, MGM, MTOR, NBL, RHP, SAFM, WYND
Underlyings
Alliance Data Systems Corporation

Alliance Data Systems is a provider of data-driven marketing and loyalty solutions. The company operates in two segments: LoyaltyOne? and Card Services. LoyaltyOne provides coalition and short-term loyalty programs through the Canadian AIR MILES? Reward Program and BrandLoyalty Group B.V. Card Services encompasses credit card processing, billing and payment processing, customer care and collections services for private label retailers as well as private label and co-brand retail credit card and loan receivables financing, including securitization and other funding of certain credit card and loan receivables that it underwrites from its private label and co-brand retail credit card programs.

Barnes Group Inc.

Barnes Group provides engineered products, industrial technologies, and solutions. The company's products and services are used in applications including aerospace, transportation, manufacturing, automation, healthcare, and packaging. The company's segments are: Industrial, which provides precision components, products and systems for critical applications serving various customer base in end-markets such as transportation, industrial equipment, automation, personal care, packaging, electronics, and medical devices; and Aerospace, which manufactures fabricated and precision machined components and assemblies for turbine engines, nacelles and structures for both commercial and military aircraft.

Campbell Soup Company

Campbell Soup is a manufacturer and marketer of food and beverage products. The company's reportable segments are: Meals and Beverages, which includes the retail and foodservice businesses in the United States and Canada, and the meals and shelf-stable beverages business in Latin America; Snacks, which consists of Pepperidge Farm cookies, crackers, fresh bakery and frozen products in United States retail, including Milano cookies and Goldfish crackers, and Snyder's of Hanover pretzels, Lance sandwich crackers, Cape Cod and Kettle Brand potato chips, Late July snacks, Snack Factory Pretzel Crisps, Pop Secret popcorn, Emerald nuts, and other snacking products in the United States and Canada.

Coca-Cola Company

Coca-Cola is a nonalcoholic beverage company. The company owns or licenses and markets nonalcoholic beverage brands, which it groups into the following category clusters: sparkling soft drinks; water, enhanced water and sports drinks; juice, dairy and plant-based beverages; tea and coffee; and energy drinks. The company's nonalcoholic sparkling soft drink brands are Coca-Cola, Diet Coke, Fanta and Sprite. The company markets, manufactures and sells beverage concentrates and syrups, including fountain syrups; and finished sparkling soft drinks and other nonalcoholic beverages. The company's segments are Europe, Middle East and Africa; Latin America; North America; Asia Pacific; Global Ventures; and Bottling Investments.

Devon Energy Corporation

Devon Energy is an independent energy company engaged primarily in the exploration, development and production of oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. The company's operations are concentrated in various onshore areas in United States. The company's areas of operation include Delaware Basin, Eagle Ford, Powder River Basin and the STACK development, located primarily in Oklahoma's Canadian, Kingfisher and Blaine counties.

Dollar Tree Inc.

Dollar Tree is an operator of discount variety stores. The company's stores operate under the names of Dollar Tree, Family Dollar and Dollar Tree Canada. The company's segments are: Dollar Tree, which is the operator of discount variety stores providing merchandise at the fixed price point of $1.00; and Family Dollar, which operates general merchandise discount retail stores. The merchandise mix in the company's Dollar Tree stores consists of consumable merchandise, variety merchandise, and seasonal goods. The merchandise mix in the company's Family Dollar stores consists of consumable merchandise, home products, apparel and accessories merchandise, and seasonal and electronics merchandise.

Eli Lilly and Company

Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets products in a single business segment: human pharmaceutical products. The company's human pharmaceutical products include: diabetes and other endocrinology products, immunology products, neuroscience products, oncology products, and other products. The company's diabetes and other endocrinology products include: Baqsimi? and Basaglar?. The company's immunology products include: Olumiant? and Taltz?. The company's neuroscience products include: Cymbalta? and Emgality?. The company's oncology products include: Alimta?, Cyramza?, Erbitux? and Verzenio?. The company's other products include: Cialis?.

Entegris Inc.

Entegris is a developer, manufacturer and supplier of microcontamination control products, chemicals and materials handling solutions for manufacturing processes in the semiconductor and other industries. The company has three segments: Specialty Chemicals and Engineered Materials, which provides process chemistries, gases, and materials; Microcontamination Control, which provides solutions to filter and purify liquid chemistries and gases used in semiconductor manufacturing processes and other industries; and Advanced Materials Handling segment, which develops solutions to monitor, protect, transport, and deliver liquid chemistries, wafers and substrates.

Fastenal Company

Fastenal is engaged in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies. The company is a distributor of fasteners and related industrial and construction supplies. This includes threaded fasteners, bolts, nuts, screws, studs, and related washers, as well as miscellaneous supplies and hardware, such as pins, machinery keys, concrete anchors, metal framing systems, wire rope, strut, rivets, and related accessories. The company's fastener product line is primarily sold under the Fastenal product name.

Fox Factory Holding Corp.

Fox Factory Holding is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of products and systems used on bicycles, side-by-side vehicles, on-road vehicles with and without off-road capabilities, off-road vehicles and trucks, all-terrain vehicles, snowmobiles, specialty vehicles and applications, motorcycles, and commercial trucks. In its powered vehicle product categories, the company provides products under the FOX, BDS Suspension, Zone Offroad, JKS Manufacturing, RT Pro UTV, 4x4 Posi-Lok, and Tuscany brands. The company's bike product offerings are used on a range of mountain bikes and road bikes under the FOX, Race Face, Easton Cycling and Marzocchi brands.

GameStop Corp. Class A

GameStop is a multichannel video game and licensed consumer products retailer. The company's products and services includes: New Video Game Hardware, which provides video game platforms from manufacturers; New Video Game Software, which provides new video game software for existing and certain prior generation consoles from manufacturers, including Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft; Video Game Accessories, which consist primarily of controllers, gaming headsets, virtual reality products, and memory cards; and Digital, which sells a variety of digital currency and has developed technology to sell downloadable content and full-game downloads in its stores and on its U.S. website.

LCI Industries

LCI Industries supplies an array of components for the original equipment manufacturers in the recreation and industrial product markets, consisting of recreational vehicles and adjacent industries including buses; trailers used to haul boats, livestock, equipment and other cargo; trucks; boats; trains; manufactured homes; and modular housing. The company also supplies components to the related aftermarkets of these industries, primarily by selling to retail dealers, wholesale distributors and service centers. The company's products include steel chassis and related components, axles and suspension solutions, slide-out mechanisms and solutions, and thermoformed bath, kitchen and other products.

Meritor Inc.

Meritor is a global supplier of a range of integrated systems, modules and components to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and the aftermarket for the commercial vehicle, transportation and industrial sectors. The company serves commercial truck, trailer, military, bus and coach, construction, and other industrial OEMs and certain aftermarkets. The company's segments are: Commercial Truck, which supplies drivetrain systems and components, including axles, drivelines and braking and suspension systems; and Aftermarket, Industrial and Trailer, which supplies axles, brakes, drivelines, suspension parts and other replacement parts to commercial vehicle and industrial aftermarket customers.

MGM Resorts International

MGM Resorts International is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company owns and operates casino, hotel, and entertainment resorts across the United States and in Macau. The company's segments include: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, which consists of casino resorts such as Bellagio, MGM Grand Las Vegas, Mandalay Bay, The Mirage, Luxor, New York-New York, Excalibur, and Park MGM; Regional Operations, which consists of casino resorts such as MGM Grand Detroit, Beau Rivage, Gold Strike Tunica, Borgata, MGM National Harbor, MGM Springfield, Empire City, and MGM Northfield Park; and MGM China, which owns and operates casino resorts and the related gaming subconcession and land concessions.

Noble Energy Inc.

Noble Energy is an independent energy company, engaged in crude oil and natural gas exploration and production. The company's operating areas include: U.S. onshore, primarily the DJ Basin, Delaware Basin and Eagle Ford Shale; U.S. offshore Gulf of Mexico; Eastern Mediterranean; and West Africa. The company's Midstream segment develops, owns, operates and acquires domestic midstream infrastructure assets, or invests in other midstream entities, with existing focus areas being the DJ and Delaware Basins. The company's activities include geophysical and geological evaluation; analysis of commercial, regulatory and political risks; and exploratory and development drilling leading to production, where appropriate.

Resolute Forest Products Inc.

Resolute Forest Products is engaged in the forest products industry, with a range of products, including market pulp, tissue, wood products, newsprint and specialty papers. The company's segments are: Market pulp, which includes virgin pulp and recycled bleached kraft pulp; Tissue, which manufactures a range of tissue products for the away-from-home and at-home markets; Wood products, which produce dimension spruce-pine-fir lumber and provides wood chips to its pulp and paper mills in Canada; Newsprint, which sells newsprint; and Specialty papers, which composed of uncoated mechanical papers, including supercalendered paper and white paper, as well as uncoated freesheet papers.

Ryman Hospitality Properties Inc.

Ryman Hospitality Properties is a real estate investment trust that is focused on group-oriented, destination hotel assets in urban and resort markets. The company's business segments include Hospitality and Entertainment. The Hospitality segment includes the Gaylord Hotels branded hotels, the Inn at Opryland and the AC Hotel, as well as the company's equity investment in Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center. The Entertainment segment includes the Grand Ole Opry, the Ryman Auditorium, WSM-AM, Ole Red, the General Jackson, the Wildhorse Saloon, and Gaylord Springs, among others.

Sanderson Farms Inc.

Sanderson Farms is a poultry processing company engaged in the production, processing, marketing and distribution of frozen chicken products, including processed and minimally prepared chicken. The company sells ice-packed, chill-packed, bulk-packed and frozen chicken, in whole, cut-up and boneless form to retailers, distributors, and casual dining operators, and to customers who resell frozen chicken into export markets. The company operates through: Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Production Division), which is engaged in the production of chickens to the broiler stage; and Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Processing Division), which is engaged in the processing, sale and distribution of chicken products.

Travel + Leisure Co.

Wyndham Destinations is a vacation ownership and exchange company. The company provides everyday travelers the opportunity to own, exchange or rent their vacation experience. The company's operations are grouped into two segments: Vacation Ownership, which is a timeshare business with resorts and owners that develops and markets vacation ownership interests (VOIs) to individual consumers, provide consumer financing in connection with the sale of VOIs, and provides property management services at resorts; and Vacation Exchange, which operates the vacation exchange network with members, and has relationships with vacation ownership resorts located in various countries and territories.

WEX INC

Wex is a provider of corporate card payment solutions. The company operates in three business segments: Fleet Solutions, which provides payment, transaction processing and information management services specifically designed for the needs of commercial and government fleets; Travel and Corporate Solutions, which focuses on the payment environment of business-to-business payments, providing customers with payment processing solutions for their corporate payment and transaction monitoring needs; and Health and Employee Benefit Solutions, which provides a software-as-a-service platform for consumer directed healthcare payments, as well as payroll related benefits to customers in Brazil.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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