Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2020 03 31

BSX currently trades below recent averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with an 18.2x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to fade from 30% in 2019 to 23% in 2024, accompanied by 3% Uniform Asset growth. However, analysts have bullish expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to improve to 34% by 2021, accompanied by 1% Uniform Asset growth. In addition, they are confident about their operational revenue growth, brain modulation and SCS portfolios, and the potential of WATCHMAN FLX. Current valuations appear to be pricing in overly bearish expectations for BSX, and should the firm just maintain current profitability levels, as positive management sentiment and analyst expectations suggest, upside would be warranted.

BKNG Q4 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA compression, but management is confident about their investments, bookings, and customer experience

VRSK Q4 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for slight Uniform ROA declines, but management is confident about their growth opportunities, acquisitions, and cloud migration

LDOS Q4 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA compression, but management is confident about their segment growth, contracts, and capital allocation

BSX, BKNG, LDOS, VRSK, ALSN, AMKR, BWA, DBD, EEFT, EFX, IIVI, KFY, LCII, LKQ, MCO, MHK, NXPI, POST, YELP, ZG
Underlyings
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc.

Allison Transmission Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company manufactures fully-automatic transmissions for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles and medium- and heavy-tactical U.S. defense vehicles. The company's transmissions are in used various applications, including on-highway trucks (distribution, refuse, construction, fire and emergency), buses (mainly school, transit and electric hybrid-transit), motorhomes, off-highway vehicles and equipment (mainly energy, mining and construction) and defense vehicles (wheeled and tracked). The company also sells replacement parts, support equipment and other products to service the installed base of vehicles utilizing its transmissions.

Amkor Technology Inc.

Amkor Technology is a provider of outsourced semiconductor packaging and test services, which include semiconductor wafer bump, wafer probe, wafer back-grind, package design, packaging, system-level and final test and drop shipment services. The company's Advanced Products include flip chip chip scale packages, wafer-level packages and flip chip ball grid array packages, while its Mainstream Products include leadframe packages, substrate-based wirebond packages and micro-electro-mechanical systems packages. The company provides its services to integrated device manufacturers, fabless semiconductor companies and contract foundries.

Booking Holdings Inc.

Booking Holdings provides travel and restaurant online reservation and related services. The company's brands include: Booking.com and Rentalcars.com, in which Booking.com provides booking online accommodation reservations, based on room nights booked, and Rentalcars.com provides online rental car reservation services; KAYAK, which provides an online price comparison service; Priceline, which provides consumers hotel, rental car and airline ticket reservation services, and vacation packages and cruises; Agoda, which is an online accommodation reservation service; and OpenTable, which provides online restaurant reservation services to consumers and reservation management services to restaurants.

BorgWarner Inc.

BorgWarner is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a global product provider in technology solutions for combustion, hybrid and electric vehicles. The company manufactures and sells these products worldwide, primarily to original equipment manufacturers of light vehicles (passenger cars, sport-utility vehicles, vans and light trucks). The company's segments are: Engine, which provides turbochargers, eBoosters, timing systems, emissions systems, thermal systems, gasoline ignition technology, cabin heaters, battery heaters and battery charging; and Drivetrain, which provides rotating electrical components, power electronics, clutching systems, control modules and all-wheel drive systems.

BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION

Boston Scientific develops, manufactures and markets medical devices. The company's Medical Surgical segment consist of: Endoscopy, which develops and manufactures devices to diagnose and treat a range of gastrointestinal and pulmonary conditions; and Urology and Pelvic Health, which develops and manufactures devices to treat various urological and pelvic conditions. The company's Rhythm and Neuro segment includes: Cardiac Rhythm Management, which develops and manufactures implantable devices to treat cardiac abnormalities; and Electrophysiology, which develops and manufactures medical technologies used in the diagnosis and treatment of rate and rhythm disorders of the heart.

Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated

Diebold Nixdorf is engaged in enabling Connected Commerce?. The company automates, digitizes and transforms the way people bank and shop. The company's integrated solutions connect digital and physical channels for consumers. The company's operating structure is focused on its two customer segments consisting of Banking and Retail. The products for banking customers consist of cash recyclers and dispensers, deposit terminals, teller automation and kiosk technologies, as well as physical security solutions. The retail product portfolio includes modular, integrated and mobile point of sale and self-checkout terminals that meet automation and omnichannel requirements of consumers.

EQUIFAX INC.

Equifax Inc. is a provider of information solutions and human resources business process outsourcing services for businesses, governments and consumers. The company's services are based on databases of consumer and business information. The company uses statistical techniques, machine learning and proprietary software tools to analyze all available data, creating insights, decision-making solutions and processing services for its clients. The company also provides information, technology and services to support debt collections and recovery management. Additionally, the company provides payroll-related and human resource management business process outsourcing services in the United States of America.

Euronet Worldwide Inc.

Euronet Worldwide is an electronic payments provider. The company provides payment and transaction processing and distribution solutions to financial institutions, retailers, service providers and individual consumers. The company operates three segments: Electronic Financial Transaction Processing, which processes transactions for a network of automated teller machines and point-of-sale terminals; epay, which provides distribution and processing of prepaid mobile airtime and other electronic content and payment processing services for various prepaid products, cards and services; and Money Transfer, which provides consumer-to-consumer and global account-to-account money transfer services.

II-VI Incorporated

II-VI develops, manufactures, and markets engineered materials, optoelectronic components, and devices for a range of applications. The company has three segments: II-VI Laser Solutions, which designs, manufactures, and markets optical and electro-optical components and materials sold under the II-VI Infrared brand name; II-VI Photonics, which manufactures crystal materials, optics, microchip lasers, and optoelectronic modules for use in optical communication networks and other consumer applications; and II-VI Performance Products, which designs, manufactures, and markets infrared optical components and optical assemblies for aerospace and defense, medical and commercial laser imaging applications.

Korn Ferry

Korn Ferry is an organizational consulting firm. The company is engaged in the business of giving client awareness to its range of talent management solutions. The company's segments include: Executive Search, in which the company's services are used to fill executive-level positions, such as board directors, chief executive officers, chief operating officers, chief information officers, chief human resource officers and other senior executive officers; Advisory, which helps clients design their organization and shows them the way to compensate, develop and motivate their people; and RPO and Professional Search, which combines people, process personnel and intellectual property enabled technology.

LCI Industries

LCI Industries supplies an array of components for the original equipment manufacturers in the recreation and industrial product markets, consisting of recreational vehicles and adjacent industries including buses; trailers used to haul boats, livestock, equipment and other cargo; trucks; boats; trains; manufactured homes; and modular housing. The company also supplies components to the related aftermarkets of these industries, primarily by selling to retail dealers, wholesale distributors and service centers. The company's products include steel chassis and related components, axles and suspension solutions, slide-out mechanisms and solutions, and thermoformed bath, kitchen and other products.

Leidos Holdings Inc.

Leidos Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in a science, engineering and information technology that provides services and solutions in the defense, intelligence, civil and health markets. The company's defense solutions segment deploys solutions in the areas of intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance, enterprise information technology, integrated systems, cybersecurity and global services. The company's civil segment integrates and protects physical, digital and data domains. The company's health segment delivers solutions to federal and commercial customers that are responsible for the health and well-being of people including service members and veterans.

LKQ Corporation

LKQ is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides alternative vehicle collision replacement products and alternative vehicle mechanical replacement products. The company is also a provider of alternative vehicle replacement and maintenance products in the United Kingdom, Germany, the Benelux region (Belgium, Netherlands, and Luxembourg), Italy, Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, Austria, and other European countries. In addition to its wholesale operations, the company operates self service retail facilities across the United States that sell recycled automotive products from end-of-life-vehicles. The company is also a distributor of specialty vehicle aftermarket equipment and accessories.

Mohawk Industries Inc.

Mohawk Industries is a global flooring manufacturer for residential and commercial spaces around the world. The company has three segments: Global Ceramic, which designs, manufactures, sources, distributes and markets a line of ceramic, porcelain and natural stone tile products used for floor and wall applications; Flooring North America, which designs, manufactures, sources and distributes broadloom carpet, carpet tile, rugs and mats, carpet pad, laminate, medium-density fiberboard, luxury vinyl tile (LVT) and sheet vinyl; and Flooring Rest of the World, which designs, manufactures, sources and distributes laminate, LVT and sheet vinyl, wood flooring, broadloom carpet and carpet tile collections.

Moody's Corporation

Moody's is a provider of credit ratings and assessment services; credit, capital markets and economic research, data and analytical tools; software solutions that support financial risk management activities; quantitatively derived credit scores; learning solutions and certification services; and company information and business intelligence products. The company's segments are: Moody's Investors Service, which publishes credit ratings on a range of debt obligations and the entities that issue such obligations in markets worldwide; and Moody's Analytics, which provides financial intelligence and analytical tools to assist businesses in making decisions.

NXP Semiconductors NV

NXP Semiconductors is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged as a global semiconductor company and a long-standing supplier in the industry. Co. provides High-Performance Mixed-Signal and Standard Product solutions. Co.'s product solutions are used in automotive, identification, wireless infrastructure, lighting, industrial, mobile, consumer and computing applications. Co. engages with original equipment manufacturers (OEM) and sell products in all major geographic regions.

Post Holdings Inc.

Post Holdings is a consumer packaged goods holding company. The company's segments are: Post Consumer Brands, which manufactures, markets and sells branded and private label ready-to-eat (RTE) cereal and hot cereal products; Weetabix, which markets and distributes branded and private label RTE cereal products; Foodservice, which produces and distributes egg and potato products; Refrigerated Retail, which produces and distributes side dishes, eggs and egg, cheese, sausage and other refrigerated products; and BellRing Brands, which markets and distributes ready-to-drink protein shakes, other RTD beverages, powders, nutrition bars and supplements in the nutrition category.

Verisk Analytics Inc

Verisk Analytics is a data analytics provider serving customers in insurance, energy and specialized markets, and financial services. The company has three segments: Insurance, which provides underwriting and ratings and claims insurance data for the United States property and casualty insurance industry; Energy and Specialized Markets, which provides research and consulting data analytics for the global energy, chemicals, and metals and mining industries; and Financial Services, which provides benchmarking, decisioning algorithms, business intelligence, and customized analytic services to financial institutions, payment networks and processors, alternative lenders, regulators and merchants.

Yelp Inc

Yelp provides a platform to both consumers and businesses by helping each discover and interact with the other. The reviews contributed to the company's platform cover a set of local business categories, including restaurants, shopping, beauty and fitness, arts, entertainment and events, home and local services, health, nightlife, travel and hotel, auto and other categories. The company provides a range of free and paid advertising products to businesses of all sizes, including the ability to deliver targeted search advertising to large local audiences through its website and mobile app. The company also provides several features and consumer-interactive tools.

Zillow Group Inc. Class A

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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