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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2021 12 14

ExlService (EXLS) is using AI to become one of the highest growth, most profitable BPOs.
Uniform Accounting highlights that the market is significantly mispricing the company's future growth potential, signaling the potential for equity upside.

With companies looking to outsource more of their operations and adopt more technology solutions, ExlService is well positioned to grow as its clients look to outsource more of their businesses. The company uses industry specific technology to develop strong moats within niches like insurance and banking, giving it the ability to scale quickly and grow returns.

The market seems to be missing just how sustainable EXLS' growth and Uniform ROA are, suggesting the company should be able to outperform the market's expectations.

EXLS' management is closely aligned to focus on growing the business, which gives us more confidence that the market misunderstands the company's future growth potential.

Management confidence in the Q3 earnings call about the Operations Management business and momentum in the Healthcare and Retail Banking verticals suggest management is executing on the company's growth strategy.

MO Q3 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to decline, and management may have concerns about regulatory challenges and their strategic initiatives

BSX Q3 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA expansion, and management is confident about organic sales growth, operating margin, and China

TXN Q3 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Markets expectations are for Uniform ROA to reach new highs, but management may have concerns about inventories, growth, capacity expansion, and dividends

EXLS, BSX, MO, TXN, BAH, CVS, GNRC, PDCE, SWK, TWTR, URI
Underlyings
Altria Group Inc

Altria Group is a holding company. The company's subsidiaries include: Philip Morris USA Inc., which is engaged in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes; John Middleton Co., which is engaged in the manufacture and sale of machine-made cigars and pipe tobacco; Sherman Group Holdings, LLC and its subsidiaries, which are engaged in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes and the sale of cigars; and UST LLC, which through its subsidiaries, including U.S. Smokeless Tobacco Company LLC and Ste. Michelle Wine Estates Ltd., is engaged in the manufacture and sale of smokeless tobacco products and wine. The products of the company's tobacco subsidiaries include smokeable tobacco products and machine-made cigars.

Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation Class A

Booz Allen Hamilton Holding is a holding company. The company provides management and technology consulting, analytics, engineering, digital solutions, mission operations, and cyber knowledge to U.S. and international governments, corporations, and non-profit organizations. The company's services are: Consulting, which focuses on solving client problems and developing mission-oriented solutions; Analytics, which includes decision analytics, automation, and data science solutions; Digital Solutions, which develops, designs, and implements solutions; Engineering, which delivers engineering services and solutions; and Cyber, which focuses on active prevention, detection, and cost effectiveness.

BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION

Boston Scientific develops, manufactures and markets medical devices. The company's Medical Surgical segment consist of: Endoscopy, which develops and manufactures devices to diagnose and treat a range of gastrointestinal and pulmonary conditions; and Urology and Pelvic Health, which develops and manufactures devices to treat various urological and pelvic conditions. The company's Rhythm and Neuro segment includes: Cardiac Rhythm Management, which develops and manufactures implantable devices to treat cardiac abnormalities; and Electrophysiology, which develops and manufactures medical technologies used in the diagnosis and treatment of rate and rhythm disorders of the heart.

CVS Health Corporation

CVS Health is a health company. The company's segments are: Pharmacy Services, which provides a range of pharmacy benefit management solutions, including plan design offerings and administration, formulary management, and retail pharmacy network management services; Retail/Long-Term Care (LTC), which sells prescription drugs and general merchandise, including over-the-counter drugs, provides health care services through its MinuteClinic? walk-in medical clinics and conducts LTC pharmacy operations; and Health Care Benefits, which provides a range of voluntary and consumer-directed health insurance products and related services, including medical, pharmacy, dental and behavioral health plans.

ExlService Holdings Inc.

ExlService Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an operations management and analytics company. The company's operations management services involve the transfer to the company's business operations of a client such as claims processing, clinical operations, or financial transaction processing, after which the company administers and manages those operations for its client on an ongoing basis, or in case of consulting, consulting services related to transformation services, including digital transformation services. The company's Analytics services focus on driving business outcomes for its customers by generating data-driven insights across various parts of its customers' business.

Generac Holdings Inc.

Generac Holdings is a designer and manufacturer of a range of power generation equipment and other power products serving the residential, light commercial and industrial markets. The company's products include residential, commercial and industrial standby generators, as well as portable and mobile generators used in a range of applications. Other engine powered products that the company designs and manufactures include light towers which provide temporary lighting for various end markets; commercial and industrial mobile heaters and pumps used in the oil and gas, construction and other industrial markets; and a product line of outdoor power equipment for residential and commercial use.

PDC Energy Inc.

PDC Energy is an independent exploration and production company that acquires, explores and develops properties for the production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids with operations in the Wattenberg Field in Colorado and the Delaware Basin in Texas. The company's operations in the Wattenberg Field are focused in the horizontal Niobrara and Codell plays and its Delaware Basin operations are primarily focused in the Wolfcamp zones. The company is engaged in two operating segments: its oil and gas exploration and production segment and its gas marketing segment.

Stanley Black & Decker Inc.

Stanley Black & Decker is a provider of hand tools, power tools and related accessories, engineered fastening systems and products, services and equipment for oil and gas and infrastructure applications, commercial electronic security and monitoring systems, healthcare solutions, and automatic doors. The company's segments include: Tools and Storage, which is comprised of the power tools and equipment and hand tools, accessories and storage businesses; Industrial, which is comprised of the engineered fastening and infrastructure businesses; and Security, which is comprised of the convergent security solutions and the mechanical access solutions businesses.

Texas Instruments Incorporated

Texas Instruments designs and makes semiconductors that it sells to electronics designers and manufacturers. The company has two reportable segments: Analog and Embedded Processing. The company's analog semiconductors change signals, such as sound, temperature, pressure or images to a stream of digital data. The company's analog segment primary product lines includes: power, signal chain, and high volume. The company's embedded processors are designed to handle specific tasks and can be optimized for various combinations of performance, power and cost, depending on the application. The company's embedded processing segment primary product lines includes: connected microcontrollers and processors.

Twitter Inc.

Twitter provides products and services for people, organizations, advertisers, developers and platform and data partners. The company's product, Twitter, is a global platform for public self-expression and conversation in real time. The company's mobile application, Periscope, lets anyone broadcast and watch video live with others. The company's products and services for advertisers include Promoted Products such as Promoted Tweets, Promoted Accounts, and Promoted Trends. The company's products for developers and data partners provide tools and public application programming interfaces to build applications and other products that utilize Twitter data and syndicate and distribute Twitter content across their properties.

United Rentals Inc.

United Rentals is an equipment rental company that operates throughout the United States and Canada, and Europe. The company's general rentals segment includes the rental of construction, aerial and industrial equipment, general tools and light equipment, and related services and activities. This segment's customers include construction and industrial companies, manufacturers, utilities, municipalities and homeowners. The company's trench, power and fluid solutions segment includes the rental of construction products and related services. This segment consist of: Trench Safety region, Power and Heating, Ventilating and Air Conditioning region; and Fluid Solutions and Fluid Solutions Europe regions.

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Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
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  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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