Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2021 07 13

Current market expectations for CVS are excessively pessimistic. Markets expect UAFRS-based ROA (Uniform ROA or ROA') to roll over to prior lows from 2010-2011.

However, the company's fundamental strategy is likely to lead to continued ROA' expansion. CVS has been evolving into a full-service healthcare firm since their acquisition of Caremark in 2007, which led to initial ROA' expansion to 15%-17% levels. This was followed by continued investment in healthcare solutions and monetizing their data on customers leading to an ROA' plateau shift through 2017, to 19%+ levels.

With the acquisition of Aetna, the company is now positioned to recreate the exact fundamental framework that UnitedHealthcare has created over the past 10+ years that has
led to a 1,500bps+ expansion in ROA' and an 8x stock rise. With the market not giving the
company credit for this strategy, there appears to be opportunities for significant equity
upside.

Management alignment and confidence in recent calls point to reasons to believe in further
operational improvement. Management is specifically compensated to focus on RONA and
EBITDA expansion, meaning they will be driving ROA' expansion while growing, not seeing
declines, as is currently expected.

Also, management has consistently shown sustained confidence in their outlook for the
company's fundamentals, their digital strategy, and around synergy trends.

Considering low market expectations, positive tailwinds and management's alignment and
strategy, and growing confidence about executing on their strategy for the business, current
low equity valuations appear unreasonable, spelling potential for equity upside.

GE Q1 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to expand, but management may be concerned about their lean transformation, margins, and orders

VRSK Q1 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to remain stable, but management may have concerns about revenues, software investments, and costs

BLKB Q1 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for continued Uniform ROA declines, but management is confident about SKY UX, customer security, and margins

CVS, BLKB, GE, VRSK, AMAT, AMGN, AMT, AMZN, BMY, CAH, CASY, CGNX, CPB, INTU, LLY, LOW, MTCH, SIX, SJM, WMT, ZM
Underlyings
Amazon.com Inc.

Amazon.com serves consumers through its online and physical stores. The company also manufactures and sells electronic devices, including Kindle, Fire tablet, Fire TV, Echo, and Ring, and the company develops and produces media content. The company operates customer service centers and provides programs that enable sellers to grow their businesses, sell their products in its stores, and fulfill orders through the company The company serves developers and enterprises of various sizes, including start-ups, government agencies, and academic institutions, through its Amazon Web Services segment, which provides a set of global compute, storage, database, and other service offerings. The company also provides services, such as advertising.

American Tower Corporation

American Tower is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a real estate investment trusts and an independent owner, operator and developer of multitenant communications real estate. The company's primary business is the leasing of space on communications sites to wireless service providers, radio and television broadcast companies, wireless data providers, government agencies and municipalities and tenants in a number of other industries. The company also provides tower-related services, including site acquisition, zoning and permitting and structural analysis, which primarily support the company's site leasing business, including the addition of new tenants and equipment on its sites.

AMGEN INC.

Amgen is a biotechnology company that discovers, develops, manufactures and delivers human therapeutics. The company's products include: Enbrel? (etanercept), which is used in indications for the treatment of adult patients with moderately to severely active rheumatoid arthritis, patients with chronic moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis who are candidates for systemic therapy or phototherapy and patients with active psoriatic arthritis; and Prolia? (denosumab), which is used for the treatment of postmenopausal women with osteoporosis at high risk of fracture or multiple risk factors for fracture, or patients who have failed or are intolerant to other available osteoporosis therapy.

Applied Materials Inc.

Applied Materials provides manufacturing equipment, services and software to the semiconductor, display and related industries. The company's segments are: Semiconductor Systems, which develops, manufactures and sells a range of manufacturing equipment used to fabricate semiconductor chips; Applied Global Services, which provides integrated solutions to support equipment and fab performance and productivity; and Display and Adjacent Markets, which is comprised of products for manufacturing liquid crystal displays, organic light-emitting diodes and other display technologies for TVs, monitors, laptops, personal computers, electronic tablets, smart phones, and other consumer-oriented devices.

Blackbaud Inc.

Blackbaud is a cloud software company. The company is engaged in providing software solutions in cloud and hosted environments, providing payment and transaction services, providing software maintenance and support services, and providing services, including implementation, consulting, training, analytic and other services. The company's portfolio provides fundraising and relationship management, marketing and engagement, financial management, grant and award management, organizational and program management (such as education management, church management and ticketing), social responsibility, payment services and analytics.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company

Bristol-Myers Squibb is engaged in the discovery, development, licensing, manufacturing, marketing, distribution and sale of biopharmaceutical products. The company's products are sold worldwide, primarily to wholesalers, specialty distributors, retail pharmacies, hospitals, government entities and the medical profession. The company manufactures products in the United States and Puerto Rico and has manufacturing operations in two foreign countries. The company has products in the following therapeutic classes: hematology, oncology, cardiovascular and immunology. The company's pharmaceutical products include chemically-synthesized or small molecule drugs and products produced from biological processes, called biologics.

Campbell Soup Company

Campbell Soup is a manufacturer and marketer of food and beverage products. The company's reportable segments are: Meals and Beverages, which includes the retail and foodservice businesses in the United States and Canada, and the meals and shelf-stable beverages business in Latin America; Snacks, which consists of Pepperidge Farm cookies, crackers, fresh bakery and frozen products in United States retail, including Milano cookies and Goldfish crackers, and Snyder's of Hanover pretzels, Lance sandwich crackers, Cape Cod and Kettle Brand potato chips, Late July snacks, Snack Factory Pretzel Crisps, Pop Secret popcorn, Emerald nuts, and other snacking products in the United States and Canada.

Cardinal Health Inc.

Cardinal Health is a healthcare services and products company providing customized solutions for hospitals, healthcare systems, pharmacies, ambulatory surgery centers, clinical laboratories and physician offices. The company's segments include: Pharmaceutical and Medical. The company's Pharmaceutical segment distributes branded and generic pharmaceutical, specialty pharmaceutical and over-the-counter healthcare and consumer products in the United States. The company's Medical segment manufactures, sources and distributes Cardinal Health branded medical, surgical and laboratory products, which are sold in the United States, Canada, Europe, Asia and other markets.

Casey's General Stores Inc.

Casey's General Stores and its subsidiaries operate convenience stores under the names Casey's and Casey's General Store primarily in Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois. The company also operates stores under the name Tobacco City, selling primarily tobacco products, liquor stores, and a grocery store. Each Casey's Store carries food and nonfood items. Most of the company's food products are nationally advertised brands, and it also has an assortment of Casey's proprietary branded products. Stores sell regional brands of dairy and bakery products, and mostly provide beer. The company's nonfood items include tobacco products, health and beauty aids, school supplies, housewares, pet supplies, and automotive products.

Cognex Corporation

Cognex is a provider of machine vision products that capture and analyze visual information in order to automate manufacturing and distribution tasks where vision is required. Machine vision products are used to automate the manufacture and tracking of discrete items, such as mobile phones, aspirin bottles, and automobile tires, by locating, identifying, inspecting, and measuring them during the manufacturing or distribution process. The company provides a range of machine vision systems and sensors, vision software, and industrial image-based barcode readers. The company's products also have a variety of physical forms, depending upon the user's needs.

CVS Health Corporation

CVS Health is a health company. The company's segments are: Pharmacy Services, which provides a range of pharmacy benefit management solutions, including plan design offerings and administration, formulary management, and retail pharmacy network management services; Retail/Long-Term Care (LTC), which sells prescription drugs and general merchandise, including over-the-counter drugs, provides health care services through its MinuteClinic? walk-in medical clinics and conducts LTC pharmacy operations; and Health Care Benefits, which provides a range of voluntary and consumer-directed health insurance products and related services, including medical, pharmacy, dental and behavioral health plans.

Eli Lilly and Company

Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets products in a single business segment: human pharmaceutical products. The company's human pharmaceutical products include: diabetes and other endocrinology products, immunology products, neuroscience products, oncology products, and other products. The company's diabetes and other endocrinology products include: Baqsimi? and Basaglar?. The company's immunology products include: Olumiant? and Taltz?. The company's neuroscience products include: Cymbalta? and Emgality?. The company's oncology products include: Alimta?, Cyramza?, Erbitux? and Verzenio?. The company's other products include: Cialis?.

General Electric Company

General Electric is a technology industrial company. The company's segments include: Power, which serves power generation, industrial, government and other customers with products and services related to energy production; Renewable Energy, which engineers and manufactures energy equipment and projects, grid solutions and digital services; Aviation, which designs and produces commercial and military aircraft engines, digital components, electric power and mechanical aircraft systems; Healthcare, which provides healthcare technologies; and Capital, which provides financial products and services that build on the company's industry capabilities in aviation, power, renewables, healthcare and other activities.

Intuit Inc.

Intuit helps consumers, small businesses, and the self-employed prosper by delivering financial management and compliance products and services. The company also provides tax products to accounting personnels, who are main partners that help the company serves small business customers. The company organizes its businesses into three reportable segments: Small Business and Self-Employed, which provides QuickBooks financial management solutions to solve financial and compliance problems; Consumer, which includes TurboTax products and services to prepare and file income tax returns; and Strategic Partner, which includes professional tax offerings and serve professional accountants in United States and Canada.

J.M. Smucker Company

Smucker (J.M.) manufactures and markets food and beverage products. The company's principal products are coffee, dog food, pet snacks, cat food, peanut butter, fruit spreads, frozen handheld products, shortening and oils, portion control products, juices and beverages, and flour and baking ingredients. The company has four reportable segments: U.S. Retail Coffee, U.S. Retail Consumer Foods, and U.S. Retail Pet Foods, and International and Away From Home. The U.S. retail market segments represent the sales of food and beverage products to consumers through retail outlets in North America. The International and Away From Home segment represents sales outside of the U.S. retail market segments.

Lowe's Companies Inc.

Lowe's Companies is a home improvement retailer. The company provides home improvement products in lumber and building materials, appliances, seasonal and outdoor living, tools and hardware, fashion fixtures, rough plumbing and electrical, paint, millwork, lawn and garden, flooring, and kitchens categories. The company provides installation services through independent contractors in product categories, including appliances, flooring, kitchens, lumber and building materials, and millwork. The company also provides extended protection plans for various products within the appliances, kitchens, fashion fixtures, millwork, rough plumbing and electrical, seasonal and outdoor living, and tools and hardware categories.

Match Group Inc.

Six Flags Entertainment Corporation

Six Flags Entertainment is a theme park operator and also an operator of waterparks. The company's parks provide a selection of thrill rides, water attractions, themed areas, concerts and shows, restaurants, game venues and retail outlets. The company holds licenses for theme park usage of certain Warner Bros. and DC Comics characters throughout the U.S. (except the Las Vegas metropolitan area), Canada, Mexico and other countries. The company's licenses include the right to sell merchandise featuring the characters at the parks, and to use the characters in its advertising, as walk-around characters and in theming for rides, attractions and retail outlets.

Verisk Analytics Inc

Verisk Analytics is a data analytics provider serving customers in insurance, energy and specialized markets, and financial services. The company has three segments: Insurance, which provides underwriting and ratings and claims insurance data for the United States property and casualty insurance industry; Energy and Specialized Markets, which provides research and consulting data analytics for the global energy, chemicals, and metals and mining industries; and Financial Services, which provides benchmarking, decisioning algorithms, business intelligence, and customized analytic services to financial institutions, payment networks and processors, alternative lenders, regulators and merchants.

Walmart Inc.

Walmart is engaged in global operations of retail, wholesale and other units, as well as eCommerce, located throughout the U.S., Africa, Argentina, Canada, Central America, Chile, China, India, Japan, Mexico and the U.K. The company's operations are conducted in three reportable segments: Walmart U.S., which is a mass merchandiser of consumer products, operating under the Walmart and Walmart Neighborhood Market brands, as well as walmart.com, jet.com and other eCommerce brands; Walmart International, which includes various formats divided into retail, wholesale and other categories; and Sam's Club, which is a membership-only warehouse club that also operates samsclub.com.

Zoom Video Communications Inc. Class A

Zoom Video Communications provides a video-first communications platform that delivers happiness and fundamentally changes how people interact. The company connects people through frictionless video, voice, chat and content sharing and enable face-to-face video experiences for thousands of people in a single meeting across disparate devices and locations. The company's cloud-native platform delivers reliable, high-quality video that is easy to use, manage and deploy, provides an attractive return on investment, is scalable and easily integrates with physical spaces and applications.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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