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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights & Inflections - 2018 10 31

UNH currently trades near corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 19.9x Uniform P/E. At these valuations, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to compress from current 40% levels in 2017 to 37% in 2022, accompanied by 7% Uniform Asset growth going forward. However, analysts have bullish expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to expand to 44% levels by 2019, accompanied by 12% Uniform Asset growth. In addition, analyst projections have grown consistently over the last year, indicating growing bullishness that the market has yet to factor in. This, coupled with management's confidence in their growth in South America, cost reductions, and Medicare Advantage offerings, suggests UNH can outperform bearish market expectations, warranting upside.

AMT Q2 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to continue expanding to new peaks, but management has concerns about international markets, M&A targets, and guidance

MMC Q2 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to remain stable near recent highs, but management has concerns about their Wealth business, tax reform, and Oliver Wyman

NKE Q1 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for improving Uniform ROA, and management is confident about their portfolio, growth, and manufacturing

AMT, MMC, NKE, 2914:JPN, 700:HKG, AL, BDX, CCL, COST, DE, EBAY, ETN, GD, HUM, JCP, MAR, SQ, STZ
Underlyings
American Tower Corporation

American Tower is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a real estate investment trusts and an independent owner, operator and developer of multitenant communications real estate. The company's primary business is the leasing of space on communications sites to wireless service providers, radio and television broadcast companies, wireless data providers, government agencies and municipalities and tenants in a number of other industries. The company also provides tower-related services, including site acquisition, zoning and permitting and structural analysis, which primarily support the company's site leasing business, including the addition of new tenants and equipment on its sites.

Becton Dickinson and Company

Becton, Dickinson and Company is a medical technology company engaged in the development, manufacture and sale of a range of medical supplies, devices, laboratory equipment and diagnostic products. The company's segments are: BD Medical, which produces an array of medical technologies and devices that are used to help improve healthcare delivery in a range of settings; BD Life Sciences, which provides products for the safe collection and transport of diagnostics specimens, and instruments and reagent systems to detect a range of infectious diseases, healthcare-associated infections and cancers; and BD Interventional, which provides vascular, urology, oncology and surgical products.

Carnival Corporation

Constellation Brands Inc. Class A

Constellation Brands is an international beverage alcohol company. The company is a producer and marketer of beer, wine and spirits with operations in the U.S., Mexico, New Zealand, Italy and Canada. The company has two segments: Beer, in which the company is engaged in the U.S. beer market that includes the imported, craft, domestic super premium, and alternative beverage alcohol categories and it has the right to import, market and sell these Mexican beer brands in the U.S.; and Wine and Spirits, in which its wine portfolio is supported by grapes purchased from independent growers, primarily in the U.S., New Zealand and Chile, and vineyard holdings in the U.S., New Zealand and Italy.

Costco Wholesale Corporation

Costco Wholesale and its subsidiaries are principally engaged in the operation of membership warehouses based on the concept of providing its members low prices on a selection of nationally branded and private-label products. The company's merchandise are: food and sundries, which include dry foods, packaged foods, and groceries, snack foods, candy, alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages, and cleaning supplies; hardlines, which include appliances, electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, and garden and patio; fresh food, which include meat, produce, deli, and bakery; softlines, which include apparel and small appliances; and ancillary, which include gas stations and pharmacy businesses.

Deere & Company

Deere & Co. operates the following segments: Agriculture and Turf, which manufactures and distributes a line of agriculture and turf equipment and related service parts, including utility tractors, tractor loaders, combines, cotton pickers, cotton strippers, and sugarcane harvesters; Construction and Forestry, which manufactures and distributes a range of machines and service parts used in construction, earthmoving, road building, material handling and timber harvesting, including backhoe loaders and crawler dozers and loaders; and Financial Services, which finances sales and leases by the company's dealers of new and used agriculture and turf equipment and construction and forestry equipment.

Eaton Corp. Plc

EBay Inc.

eBay is a global commerce provider, which includes its Marketplace, StubHub and Classifieds platforms. The company's Marketplace platforms include its online marketplace located at www.ebay.com, its localized counterparts and the eBay suite of mobile apps. The company's StubHub platforms include its online ticket platform located at www.stubhub.com, its localized counterparts and the StubHub mobile apps. These platforms connect fans with their favorite sporting events, shows and artists and enable them to buy and sell tickets whenever and wherever they want. The company's Classifieds platforms include a collection of brands such as mobile.de, Kijiji, Gumtree, Marktplaats, eBay Kleinanzeigen and others.

General Dynamics Corporation

General Dynamics is an aerospace and defense company. The company has five operating segments: Aerospace, which provides a family of Gulfstream aircraft and services for business aircraft produced by Gulfstream and other original equipment manufacturers; Combat Systems, which provides combat vehicles, weapons systems and munitions; Information Technology, which provides information technology (IT) services, IT infrastructure modernization and professional services; Mission Systems, which provides mission-critical products and systems; and Marine Systems, which designs and builds nuclear-powered submarines, surface combatants, and auxiliary and combat-logistics ships.

Humana Inc.

Humana is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a health and well-being company. The company manages its business with three segments: Retail, which consists of products sold on a retail basis to individuals including medical and supplemental benefit plans, such as Medicare and state-based Medicaid Contracts; Group and Specialty, which consists of employer group commercial fully-insured medical and specialty health insurance benefits, including dental, vision and life insurance benefits, as well as administrative services only; and Healthcare Services, which includes pharmacy solutions, provider services, clinical care services, and predictive modeling and informatics services

Japan Tobacco Inc.

Japan Tobacco is mainly engaged in the manufacture and sale of tobacco products in the domestic and overseas markets. Along with its affiliates, Co. operates in four principal business segments: Japanese domestic tobacco, international tobacco, pharmaceutical, and processed food. Co. is engaged in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes in Japan and overseas; the research, development, manufacture and sale of ethical pharmaceuticals; and the manufacture and sale of frozen and ambient processed foods, bakery items and seasoning. In addition, Co. is involved in the leasing and management of real estate and the other businesses.

Marriott International Inc. Class A

Marriott International is a worldwide operator, franchisor, and licensor of hotel, residential and timeshare properties under various brand names at different price and service points. The company has operations in the following reportable business segments: North American Full-Service, which includes the company's Luxury and Premium properties located in United States and Canada; North American Limited-Service, which includes the company's Select properties located in United States and Canada; and Asia Pacific, which includes all properties in the company's Asia Pacific region.

Marsh & McLennan Companies Inc.

Marsh & McLennan Companies is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides clients advice and solutions in risk, strategy and people. The company provides analysis, advice and transactional capabilities to clients. The company conducts business through two segments: Risk and Insurance Services, which includes risk management activities (risk advice, risk transfer and risk control and mitigation solutions) as well as insurance and reinsurance broking and services; and Consulting, which includes health, wealth and career services and products, and other management, economic and brand consulting services.

NIKE Inc. Class B

NIKE is engaged in the design, development and marketing and selling of athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, accessories and services. The company focuses its NIKE Brand product offerings in Running, NIKE Basketball, the Jordan Brand, Football (Soccer), Training and Sportswear categories. The company markets products designed for kids, as well as for other athletic and recreational uses such as American football, baseball, cricket, golf, lacrosse, tennis, walking, and other outdoor activities. The company has license agreements that permit unaffiliated parties to manufacture and sell, using the company-owned trademarks, certain apparel, digital devices and applications and other equipment designed for sports activities.

Old COPPER Company. Inc.

J. C. Penney Company is a holding company whose principal operating subsidiary is J. C. Penney Corporation, Inc. The company's business consists of selling merchandise and services to consumers through its department stores and its website at jcpenney.com. The company's department stores and website serve the same type of customers, its website provides the same mix of merchandise as its store assortment along with other extended categories that are not provided in store, and its department stores accept returns from sales made in stores and via its website. The company sells family apparel and footwear, accessories, jewelry, beauty products through Sephora inside JCPenney, and home furnishings.

Square Inc. Class A

Square is a commerce ecosystem that combines software with hardware to enable sellers to turn mobile devices and computing devices into payment and point-of-sale solutions. With the company's offering, a seller can accept payments via magnetic stripe, Europay, MasterCard, and Visa, or Near Field Communication; or online via Square Invoices, Square Virtual Terminal, or the seller's website or app. Also, sellers can gain access to reporting and analytics, next-day settlements, digital receipts, payment dispute and chargeback management, security, and Payment Card Industry compliance. The company's Cash App enable individuals to send and receive money electronically to and from individuals and businesses.

Tencent Holdings Ltd.

Tencent Holdings Limited is an investment holding company principally involved in the provision of value-added services (VAS) and online advertising services. The Company operates through three main segments. The VAS segment is mainly involved in provision of online/mobile games, community value-added services and applications across various Internet and mobile platforms. The Online Advertising segment is mainly engaged in display based and performance based advertisements. The Others segment is mainly involved in provision of payment related services, cloud services and other services.

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated

UnitedHealth Group is a health care company. The company has four reportable segments across its two business platforms, UnitedHealthcare and Optum: UnitedHealthcare, which provides health care benefits to an array of customers and markets through its UnitedHealthcare Employer & Individual, UnitedHealthcare Medicare & Retirement, UnitedHealthcare Community & State and UnitedHealthcare Global; OptumHealth, which serves the physical, emotional and health-related financial needs of individuals; OptumInsight, which provides services, technology and health care knowledge to main participants in the health care industry; and OptumRx, which provides pharmacy care services and programs.

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