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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2020 03 03

GPS currently trades near recent averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 17.6x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to compress from 6% in 2019 to 5% through 2024, accompanied by 1% Uniform Asset shrinkage going forward. Analysts have similar expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to decline to 5% by 2021, accompanied by 2% Uniform Asset shrinkage. However, management is confident about their margins, inventory levels and the progress of their online business. Current valuations appear to be pricing in overly bearish expectations for GPS, and should the company maintain profitability near current levels, as positive management sentiment suggests, upside would be warranted.
LB Q3 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA compression, but management is confident about their inventory, promotions, and development work
GIS Q3 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA expansion, but management may be concerned about growth, product launches, and profitability
HPQ Q4 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for material declines in Uniform ROA, but management is excited about Personal Systems, and is confident about accountability and shareholder value
GPS, GIS, HPQ, LB, AME, ASGN, BHC, CMG, DTE, ESS, FE, GRMN, HES, HII, HRL, MKC, OLED, PAYX, PKI, RCL
Underlyings
AMETEK Inc.

AMETEK is a manufacturer of electronic instruments and electromechanical devices. Electronic Instruments operating group is engaged in the design and manufacture of analytical, test and measurement instruments for the process, aerospace, medical, research, power and industrial markets. This segment includes process and analytical instrumentation markets and products, and aerospace and power instrumentation markets and products. Electromechanical operating group is engaged in supplying automation solutions, thermal management systems, metals and electrical interconnects. This segment includes automation and engineered solutions markets and products; and aerospace markets and products.

ASGN Inc

ASGN provides information technology (IT) and other services in the technology, digital, creative, engineering and life sciences fields across commercial and government sectors. The company's segments are: Apex, which provides technical, digital, creative, scientific and engineering personnel for contract, contract-to-hire, and permanent placement positions to clients across the United States and Canada; Oxford, which provides staffing and permanent placement services in select skill and geographic markets in the United States and Europe; and ECS, which delivers solutions in cloud, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, machine learning, application and IT modernization, science and engineering.

Bausch Health Companies Inc.

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International is a pharmaceutical and medical device company that develops, manufactures, and markets a range of branded, generic and branded generic pharmaceuticals, over-the-counter (OTC) products, and medical devices (contact lenses, intraocular lenses, ophthalmic surgical equipment, and aesthetics devices). Co. has two operating and reportable segments: Developed Markets, which focuses in dermatology, neurology, gastrointestinal disorders, and eye health therapeutic; and Emerging Markets, which focuses primarily on branded generics, OTC products, and medical devices.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.

Chipotle Mexican Grill together with its subsidiaries operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants, which feature a menu of burritos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla), tacos, and salads. The company operates Chipotle restaurants throughout the United States, international Chipotle restaurants, and non-Chipotle restaurants. The company uses various herbs, spices and seasonings to prepare its meats and vegetables. The company also serves tortilla chips that seasoned with lime juice and salt, with sides of hand mashed guacamole, salsas, or queso. In addition to sodas, fruit and tea drinks, and organic milk, most of the company's restaurants also provide a selection of beer and margaritas.

DTE Energy Company

DTE Energy is a holding company. The company is engaged in the generation, purchase, distribution and sale of electricity to customers in southeastern Michigan through its DTE Electric Company subsidiary, as well as in the purchase, storage, transportation, distribution and sale of natural gas throughout Michigan and the sale of storage and transportation capacity through its DTE Gas Company subsidiary. The company's non-utility operations are: gas storage and pipelines, which consists of natural gas pipeline, gathering, transportation, and storage businesses; power and industrial projects; and energy trading, which consists of energy marketing and trading operations.

Essex Property Trust Inc.

Essex Property Trust operates as a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust. The company owns all of its interest in its real estate and other investments directly or indirectly through Essex Portfolio, L.P. (the Operating Partnership). The company is the sole general partner of the Operating Partnership. The company is engaged primarily in the ownership, operation, management, acquisition, development and redevelopment of primarily apartment communities, located along the West Coast. The company owns or has an interest in various operating apartment communities, consisting of apartment homes, operating commercial building and a development pipeline.

FirstEnergy Corp.

FirstEnergy is a public utility holding company. The company and its subsidiaries are principally involved in the transmission, distribution and generation of electricity. The company's reportable operating segments are comprised of: Regulated Distribution, which distributes electricity through the company's utility operating companies and also controls regulated electric generation capacity located primarily in West Virginia, Virginia and New Jersey; and Regulated Transmission, which provides transmission infrastructure owned and operated by the transmission companies and certain of the company's utilities to transmit electricity from generation sources to distribution facilities.

Gap Inc.

The Gap is an apparel retail company. The company provides apparel, accessories, and personal care products for men, women, and children under the Old Navy, Gap, Banana Republic, Athleta, Intermix, and Hill City brands. The company has stores in the U.S., Canada, the U.K., France, Ireland, Japan, Italy, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Mexico, and has franchise agreements with unaffiliated franchisees to operate Old Navy, Gap, and Banana Republic stores throughout Asia, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. Under these agreements, third parties operate stores that sell apparel and related products under the company's brand names.

Garmin Ltd.

General Mills Inc.

General Mills manufactures and markets branded consumer foods. The company's segments are: North America Retail, which provides cereals, refrigerated yogurt, soup, meal kits, dessert and baking mixes, frozen pizza and pizza snacks, grain, fruit and savory snacks, and organic products, among others; Convenience Stores and Foodservice, which provides snacks, yogurt, frozen meals and frozen dough products, and baking mixes, among others; Europe and Australia, which includes retail and foodservice businesses in the Europe and Australia region; Asia and Latin America, which consists of retail and foodservice businesses in the Asia and South America regions; and Pets, which includes pet food products.

Hess Corporation

Hess is a global exploration and production company engaged in exploration, development, production, transportation, purchase and sale of crude oil, natural gas liquid (NGL), and natural gas with production operations located primarily in the United States, Guyana, the Malaysia/Thailand Joint Development Area, Malaysia and Denmark. The company's Midstream operating segment provides fee-based services, including gathering, compressing and processing natural gas and fractionating NGL; gathering, terminaling, loading and transporting crude oil and NGL; storing and terminaling propane, and water handling services primarily in the Bakken shale play in the Williston Basin area of North Dakota.

Hormel Foods Corporation

Hormel Foods is primarily engaged in the production of meat and food products and the marketing of those products throughout the United States and internationally. The company's segments are: Grocery Products, which consists of the processing, marketing, and sale of shelf-stable food products; Refrigerated Foods, which consists of the processing, marketing, and sale of branded and unbranded pork, beef, chicken, and turkey products; Jennie-O Turkey Store, which consists of the processing, marketing, and sale of branded and unbranded turkey products; and International and Other, which includes Hormel Foods International Corporation that manufactures, markets, and sells the company's products internationally.

HP Inc.

HP is a provider of personal computing and other access devices, imaging and printing products, and related technologies, solutions and services. The company's segments are: Personal Systems, which provides commercial and consumer desktop and notebook personal computers, workstations, thin clients, commercial mobility devices, retail point-of-sale systems, displays and other related accessories, software, support and services; Printing, which provides consumer and commercial printer hardware, supplies, solutions and services, as well as scanning devices; and Corporate Investments, which includes HP Labs and certain business incubation and investment projects.

Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc.

Huntington Ingalls Industries is a military shipbuilding company and a provider of services to partners in government and industry. The company's segments include: Ingalls Shipbuilding, which designs and constructs non-nuclear ships for the United States Navy and United States Coast Guard, including amphibious assault ships, expeditionary warfare ships, surface combatants, and national security cutters; Newport News Shipbuilding, which is designing and constructing nuclear-powered ships, such as aircraft carriers and submarines, and the refueling and overhaul and the inactivation of such ships; and Technical Solutions, which includes businesses that are focused on life-cycle sustainment services.

L Brands Inc.

L Brands is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a specialty retailer of women's intimate and other apparel, personal care, beauty and home fragrance products. The company sells its merchandise through company-owned specialty retail stores in the U.S., Canada, the U.K., Ireland and Greater China, and through its websites and other channels. The company's other international operations are primarily through franchise, license and wholesale partners. The company has three reportable segments: Victoria's Secret, Bath & Body Works and Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works International. The company operates the following retail brands: Victoria's Secret, PINK and Bath & Body Works.

McCormick & Company Incorporated

McCormick & Co. manufactures, markets and distributes spices, seasoning mixes, condiments and other flavor products to the food industry- retailers, food manufacturers and foodservice businesses. The company also is partner in a number of joint ventures that are involved in the manufacture and sale of flavor products. The company's business segments comprised of: consumer, in which the company markets its products to customers and supplies private label items, known as store brands; and flavor solutions, which provides a range of flavor solutions including seasoning blends, spices and herbs, condiments, coating systems and compound flavors.

Paychex Inc.

Paychex is a provider of integrated human capital management (HCM) solutions for payroll, benefits, human resource (HR), and insurance services for small- to medium-sized businesses. The company's portfolio of HCM and employee benefit-related services include: payroll processing services; payroll tax administration services; employee payment services; regulatory compliance services (new-hire reporting and garnishment processing); HR Solutions Administrative Services Organization; retirement services administration; HR administration services, including time and attendance; other HR services and products; business services; Professional Employer Organization services; and insurance services.

PerkinElmer Inc.

PerkinElmer is a provider of products, services and solutions for the diagnostics, life sciences and applied markets. The company operates in the following segments: Discovery and Analytical Solutions and Diagnostics. The company's Discovery and Analytical Solutions segment serves the life sciences and applied markets. The life sciences market consists of the life sciences research market and laboratory services market whereas the applied markets consist of environmental, food and industrial markets. In its Diagnostics segments, the company provides instruments, reagents, assay platforms, and software to hospitals, medical labs, clinicians, and medical research personnel to help improve the health of families.

ROYAL CARIBBEAN GROUP

Universal Display Corporation

Universal Display is engaged in the research, development and commercialization of organic light emitting diode (OLED) technologies and materials for use in displays and lighting applications. The company manufactures and sells its proprietary OLED materials to customers for evaluation and use in commercial OLED products. The company also enters into agreements with manufacturers of OLED display and lighting products under which the company grants them licenses to practice under the company's patents and to use the company's proprietary know-how. At the same time, the company works with these and other companies that are evaluating the company's OLED technologies and materials for possible use in commercial OLED display and lighting products.

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