Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2018 07 11

JCOM currently trades well below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 14.2x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to continue declining, from 77% in 2017 to 28% through 2022, accompanied by 18% Uniform Asset growth going forward. However, analysts have more optimistic expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to remain at current 77% levels through 2019, accompanied by 6% Uniform Asset growth. Moreover, given management's confidence in their fax business, market expectations appear too bearish. Should JCOM succeed in simply maintaining profitability at current levels, equity upside would be warranted


ASGN Q1 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for declining Uniform ROA, and management has concerns about free cash flow, growth, and margins

NKE Q4 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for improving Uniform ROA, but management has concerns about their digital, costs, and their initiatives


WGO Q3 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Management's confidence about their costs and ability to compete imply that market expectations are overly bearish, suggesting that longer-term upside remains warranted

AMKR, CARS, CCL, FCX, ICE, INTU, LCII, LUV, MU, SUM, THS, TJX
Underlyings
Amkor Technology Inc.

Amkor Technology is a provider of outsourced semiconductor packaging and test services, which include semiconductor wafer bump, wafer probe, wafer back-grind, package design, packaging, system-level and final test and drop shipment services. The company's Advanced Products include flip chip chip scale packages, wafer-level packages and flip chip ball grid array packages, while its Mainstream Products include leadframe packages, substrate-based wirebond packages and micro-electro-mechanical systems packages. The company provides its services to integrated device manufacturers, fabless semiconductor companies and contract foundries.

ASGN Inc

ASGN provides information technology (IT) and other services in the technology, digital, creative, engineering and life sciences fields across commercial and government sectors. The company's segments are: Apex, which provides technical, digital, creative, scientific and engineering personnel for contract, contract-to-hire, and permanent placement positions to clients across the United States and Canada; Oxford, which provides staffing and permanent placement services in select skill and geographic markets in the United States and Europe; and ECS, which delivers solutions in cloud, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, machine learning, application and IT modernization, science and engineering.

Carnival Corporation

Cars.com Inc.

Cars.com is a digital marketplace and solutions provider for the automotive industry that connects car shoppers with sellers and original equipment manufacturers. The company's portfolio of brands includes Cars.com, Dealer Inspire, DealerRater, Auto.com, NewCars.com and PickupTrucks.com. The CARS marketplace consists of a website that features a database of new and used vehicle listings, reviews, news and research section. Dealer Inspire is engaged in automotive technology that provides websites, technology solutions and advertising services to dealers across the United States and Canada. DealerRater is a source of user-generated reviews of both automobile dealers and dealership salespeople.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc.

Freeport-McMoRan is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a mining company. The company operates assets with proven and probable reserves of copper, gold and molybdenum, and the company is a publicly traded copper producer. The company's portfolio of assets includes the Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia, copper and gold deposits; and mining operations in North America and South America, including the Morenci minerals district in Arizona and the Cerro Verde operation in Peru. The company has organized its mining operations into four primary divisions: North America copper mines, South America mining, Indonesia mining and Molybdenum mines.

Intercontinental Exchange Inc.

Intercontinental Exchange is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a global operator of regulated exchanges, clearing houses and listings venues, and a provider of data services for commodity, financial, fixed income and equity markets. The company operates regulated marketplaces for listing, trading and clearing an array of derivatives contracts and securities across primary asset classes, including metals, equities, bonds and currencies, and also provides mortgage and technology services. In addition, the company provides data services to support the trading, investment, risk management and connectivity needs of customers. The company has two segments: Trading and Clearing and Data and Listings.

Intuit Inc.

Intuit helps consumers, small businesses, and the self-employed prosper by delivering financial management and compliance products and services. The company also provides tax products to accounting personnels, who are main partners that help the company serves small business customers. The company organizes its businesses into three reportable segments: Small Business and Self-Employed, which provides QuickBooks financial management solutions to solve financial and compliance problems; Consumer, which includes TurboTax products and services to prepare and file income tax returns; and Strategic Partner, which includes professional tax offerings and serve professional accountants in United States and Canada.

J2 Global Inc.

j2 Global is holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides internet services. The company manages its operations through two business segments: Cloud Services and Digital Media. The company's Cloud Services provides the following cloud services and solutions: fax; voice; backup; security; email marketing products; IP licensing; global network and operations; and customer support services. The company's Digital Media properties and services include the following: technology; gaming; healthcare; display and video advertising; and tools and services.

LCI Industries

LCI Industries supplies an array of components for the original equipment manufacturers in the recreation and industrial product markets, consisting of recreational vehicles and adjacent industries including buses; trailers used to haul boats, livestock, equipment and other cargo; trucks; boats; trains; manufactured homes; and modular housing. The company also supplies components to the related aftermarkets of these industries, primarily by selling to retail dealers, wholesale distributors and service centers. The company's products include steel chassis and related components, axles and suspension solutions, slide-out mechanisms and solutions, and thermoformed bath, kitchen and other products.

Micron Technology Inc.

Micron Technology provides memory and storage solutions. The company's portfolio of memory and storage technologies include Dynamic Random Access Memory, Not And, 3D XPoint? memory, and Not Or. The company's segments are: Compute and Networking Business, which includes memory products sold into client, cloud server, enterprise, graphics, and networking markets; Mobile Business, which includes memory products sold into smartphone and other mobile-device markets; Storage Business, which includes Solid-State Drives and component-level solutions sold into enterprise and cloud, client, and consumer storage markets; and Embedded Business, which includes memory and storage products.

NIKE Inc. Class B

NIKE is engaged in the design, development and marketing and selling of athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, accessories and services. The company focuses its NIKE Brand product offerings in Running, NIKE Basketball, the Jordan Brand, Football (Soccer), Training and Sportswear categories. The company markets products designed for kids, as well as for other athletic and recreational uses such as American football, baseball, cricket, golf, lacrosse, tennis, walking, and other outdoor activities. The company has license agreements that permit unaffiliated parties to manufacture and sell, using the company-owned trademarks, certain apparel, digital devices and applications and other equipment designed for sports activities.

SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO

Southwest Airlines operates Southwest Airlines, a passenger airline that provides scheduled air transportation in the United States and near-international markets. The company has Boeing 737 aircraft in its fleet and serves destinations in various states, the District of Columbia, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, and other near-international countries such as Mexico, Jamaica, The Bahamas, Aruba, Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Belize, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Turks and Caicos. The company principally provides point-to-point service, which allows for direct nonstop routing. The company also provides a suite of digital platforms to support Customers' needs prior to and during the course of their travel.

Summit Materials Inc. Class A

Summit Materials is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a construction materials company. The company produces and sells aggregates, cement, ready-mix concrete, asphalt paving mix and concrete products and owns and operates quarries, sand and gravel pits, cement plants, cement distribution terminals, ready-mix concrete plants, asphalt plants and landfill sites. The company is engaged in paving and related services. The company has operations in various states across the United States and in British Columbia, Canada. The company operates a municipal waste landfill in its East segment, and has construction and demolition debris landfills and liquid asphalt terminal operations in its West and East segments.

TJX Companies Inc

TJX Companies is an off-price apparel and home fashions retailer. The company's segments comprised of: Marmaxx, which sells family apparel (including footwear and accessories), home fashions (including home basics, decorative accessories and giftware) and other merchandise; HomeGoods, which provides a range of home fashions, including home fashions, including furniture, rugs, lighting, soft home, decorative accessories, tabletop and cookware as well as pet, kids and gourmet food departments; TJX Canada, which operates the Winners, HomeSense and Marshalls chains in Canada; and TJX International, which operates the T.K. Maxx and HomeSense chains in Europe and the T.K. Maxx chain in Australia.

TreeHouse Foods Inc.

TreeHouse Foods is a consumer packaged food and beverage manufacturer operating across the United States, Canada, and Italy. The company's reportable segments are: Baked Goods, which sells bars, candy, cookies, crackers; in-store bakery products, pita chips, pretzels, refrigerated dough, and retail griddle waffles, pancakes, and French toast; Beverages, which sells broths, liquid non-dairy creamer, non-dairy powdered creamers, powdered drinks, ready-to-drink coffee, single serve hot beverages, teas, and sweeteners; and Meal Solutions, which sells aseptic cheese and pudding products, baking and mix powders, hot cereals, pasta, and skillet dinners, among others.

Winnebago Industries Inc.

Winnebago Industries is a manufacturer with a portfolio of recreation vehicles and marine products used primarily in leisure travel and outdoor recreation activities. The company's reportable segments include: Towable, which is comprised of products which are not motorized and are generally towed by another vehicle as well as other related manufactured products and services; and Motorhome, which is comprised of products that include a motorized chassis as well as other related manufactured products and services. The company's subsidiary, Chris-Craft USA, Inc., manufactures and sells boats in the recreational powerboat industry through a network of independent authorized dealers.

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