Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2020 06 09

PII currently trades near corporate averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 20.0x Uniform P/E (Fwd V/E'). At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to decline from 18% in 2019 to 12% in 2024, accompanied by 6% Uniform asset growth. However, analysts have less bearish expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to remain at 17%-18% levels through 2021, accompanied by 4% Uniform asset shrinkage. That said, management is confident about Indian Motorcycles and Pontoon market share and retail performance, as well as their liquidity. Current valuations appear to be pricing in overly bearish expectations for PII, and should the firm just maintain its profitability, as positive management sentiment and analyst expectations suggest, material upside would be warranted.
AZO Q2 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to remain stable, but management may be concerned about their supply chain, business slowdown, and MegaHub

PG Q3 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for significant ROA improvement, but management may be concerned about growth, productivity, and consumer spending

JNJ Q1 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to fade, but management is confident about their dividend, financing, and vaccine research
PII, AZO, JNJ, PG, AMN, BF.B, COP, EPD, EVRG, GWRE, KDP, KR, LAMR, LW, PSA, SBUX, SSNC, TTC, UNH, WEX
Underlyings
AMN Healthcare Services Inc.

AMN Healthcare Services provides talent solutions for the healthcare sector. The company's talent solutions provides management, staffing, recruitment, technology, analytics, and related services to manage healthcare workforce needs. The company provides its healthcare personnel, from nurses, doctors, and allied health personnel to healthcare leaders and executives. The company's workforce solutions and staffing services include: travel nurse staffing; rapid response nurse staffing and labor disruption services; local, or per diem, staffing; locum tenens staffing; allied staffing; physician permanent placement services; interim leadership staffing and executive search services; and recruitment process outsourcing.

AutoZone Inc.

AutoZone is a retailer and a distributor of automotive replacement parts and accessories. The company operates stores in the United States, including Puerto Rico and Saint Thomas, Mexico, and Brazil. Each store carries a product line for cars, sport utility vehicles, vans and light trucks, including new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories and non-automotive products. In addition, the company has a commercial sales program that provides commercial credit and delivery of parts and other products to local, regional and national repair garages, dealers, service stations and public sector accounts. The company also sells the ALLDATA brand automotive diagnostic and repair software.

Brown-Forman Corporation Class B

Brown-Forman primarily manufactures, bottles, imports, exports, markets, and sells a range of alcoholic beverage brands. Co.'s principal brands include, among other, Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey; Jack Daniel's Tennessee Honey; Jack Daniel's RTDs; Gentleman Jack Rare Tennessee Whiskey; Jack Daniel's Tennessee Fire; Jack Daniel's Single Barrel Collection; Jack Daniel's Winter Jack; Jack Daniel's Sinatra Select; Jack Daniel's No. 27 Gold Tennessee Whiskey; Jack Daniel's Tennessee Rye; Korbel California Champagnes; Korbel California Brandy; Woodford Reserve Kentucky Bourbon; Woodford Reserve Double Oaked; Woodford Reserve Kentucky Rye Whiskey; Finlandia Vodkas; and Slane Irish Whiskey.

CONOCOPHILLIPS

ConocoPhillips is an exploration and production company engaged in exploring for, producing, transporting and marketing crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas and natural gas liquids. The company's segments include: Alaska, which operates in Alaska; Lower 48, which operates in the United States and the Gulf of Mexico; Canada, which operates in Alberta and British Columbia; Europe and North Africa, which consists of operations and exploration activities in Norway, the United Kingdom and Libya; Asia Pacific and Middle East, which operates in China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia, Qatar, and Timor-Leste; and Other International, which operates in Colombia, Chile and Argentina.

Enterprise Products Partners L.P.

Enterprise Products Partners is a provider of midstream energy services to producers and consumers of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), crude oil, petrochemicals and refined products. The company's midstream energy operations include: natural gas gathering, treating, processing, transportation and storage; NGL transportation, fractionation, storage, and export and import terminals; crude oil gathering, transportation, storage, and export and import terminals; petrochemical and refined products transportation, storage, export and import terminals, and related services; and a marine transportation business that operates primarily on the U.S. inland and Intracoastal Waterway systems.

Evergy Inc.

Evergy is a public utility holding company. Through its subsidiary, Westar Energy, Inc., the company is a regulated electric utility that provides electricity to customers in the state of Kansas. The company's Kansas City Power & Light Company (KCP&L) subsidiary, is a regulated electric utility that provides electricity to customers primarily in the states of Missouri and Kansas. KCP&L's subsidiary, Greater Missouri Operations Company, is a regulated electric utility that provides electricity to customers in the state of Missouri. The company, through its subsidiary, GPE Transmission Holding Company, LLC, partially owns Transource Energy, LLC, which is focused on the development of electric transmission projects.

GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE INC

Guidewire Software provides a technology platform, composed of software, services, and a partner ecosystem, for the property and casualty insurance industry. Guidewire InsurancePlatform? consists of cloud and on-premise applications to support core operations, data management and analytics, and digital engagement and is connected to various data sources and third party applications. The company's operational platforms include: Guidewire InsuranceSuite, which comprises of PolicyCenter, BillingCenter, and ClaimCenter applications; and Guidewire InsuranceNow, which provides policy, billing and claims management functionality to insurers that prefer to subscribe to a cloud-based, all-in-one solution.

Johnson & Johnson

Johnson & Johnson is a holding company engaged in the research and development, manufacture and sale of a range of products in the health care field. The company has three business segments: Consumer, which includes a range of products focused on personal healthcare used in the beauty, over-the-counter pharmaceutical, baby care, oral care, women's health and wound care markets; Pharmaceutical, which is focused on six therapeutic areas: immunology, infectious diseases, neuroscience, oncology, cardiovascular and metabolism and pulmonary hypertension; and Medical Devices, which includes products used in the orthopaedic, surgery, interventional solutions, and eye health fields.

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.

Keurig Dr Pepper is a beverage company with a portfolio of flavored (non-cola) carbonated soft drinks (CSDs), non-carbonated beverages, and is a producer of single serve brewing systems. The company's Coffee Systems segment develops and sells a variety of Keurig brewers, brewer accessories and other coffee-related equipment. The company's Packaged Beverages segment manufactures and distributes packaged beverages of its brands. The company's Beverage Concentrates segment manufactures and sells beverage concentrates. The company's Latin America Beverages segment participates mainly in the carbonated mineral water, flavored CSD, bottled water and vegetable juice categories.

Kroger Co.

Kroger operates as a retailer. The company also manufacture and process some of the food for sale in its supermarkets. Supermarkets are operated under one of the following formats: combination food and drug stores (combo stores); multi-department stores; marketplace stores; or price impact warehouses. The combo stores provide food and organic sections, pharmacies, general merchandise, pet centers and perishables such as seafood and organic produce. Marketplace provide grocery, pharmacy and health and beauty care departments as well as perishable offering and general merchandise area that includes apparel, home goods and toys.

Lamar Advertising Company Class A

Lamar Advertising is a real estate investment trust and an outdoor advertising company. The company leases space for advertising on billboards, buses, shelters, benches, logo plates and in airport terminals. The company's outdoor advertising displays are: billboards, in which the company leases its advertising space on bulletins and posters; logo signs, which erects logo signs that advertise nearby gas, food, camping, lodging and other attractions, and directional signs that direct vehicle traffic to nearby services and tourist attractions, near highway exits; and transit advertising displays, in which the company rents transit advertising displays in airport terminals and on bus shelters, benches and buses.

Lamb Weston Holdings Inc.

Lamb Weston Holdings is a producer, distributor, and marketer of frozen potato products. French fries represent the majority of the company's frozen potato product portfolio. The company's segments include: Global, which includes branded and private label frozen potato products sold in North America and international markets; Foodservice, which includes branded and private label frozen potato products sold throughout the U.S. and Canada; Retail, which includes consumer facing retail branded and private label frozen potato products sold primarily to grocery, mass merchants, club, and specialty retailers; and Other, which includes the company's vegetable and dairy businesses.

Polaris Inc.

Polaris designs, engineers and manufactures powersports vehicles which include, off-road vehicles, including all-terrain vehicles and side-by-side vehicles for recreational and utility use, snowmobiles, motorcycles, global adjacent markets vehicles, including commercial, government and defense vehicles, and boats. The company's products, together with related Parts, Garments and Accessories, as well as aftermarket accessories and apparel, are sold through dealers, distributors and retail stores principally located in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, Australia and Mexico.

Procter & Gamble Company

Procter & Gamble provides consumer packaged goods. The company's products are sold primarily through mass merchandisers, e-commerce, grocery stores, membership club stores, drug stores, department stores, distributors, wholesalers, baby stores, beauty stores, other stores and pharmacies. The company has five reportable segments: Beauty, which includes hair care, and skin and personal care products; Grooming, which includes shave care products; Health Care, which includes oral care and personal health care products; Fabric and Home Care, which includes fabric care and home care products; and Baby, Feminine and Family Care, which includes baby care, feminine care and family care products.

Public Storage

Public Storage is a real estate investment trust. The company's business activities include: Self-storage Operations, which acquires, develops, owns and operates self-storage facilities that provide storage spaces for lease on a month-to-month basis, for personal and business use; Ancillary Operations, which reinsures policies against losses to goods stored by customers in the company's self-storage facilities and sells merchandise, mainly locks and cardboard boxes, at its self-storage facilities; and Investment in PS Business Parks Inc. (PSB), in which the company has an equity interest in PSB that owns, operates, acquires and develops commercial properties, mainly multi-tenant flex, office, and industrial parks.

SS&C Technologies Holdings Inc.

SS&C Technologies Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a provider of software products and software-enabled services that allow financial services providers to automate business processes and manage their information processing requirements. The company provides its solutions to clients principally within the institutional asset and wealth management, alternative investment management, financial advisory and financial institutions vertical markets. In addition, the company's clients include commercial lenders, real estate investment trusts, corporate treasury groups, insurance and pension funds, municipal finance groups and real estate property managers.

Starbucks Corporation

Starbucks is a roaster, marketer and retailer of coffee. The company's segments are: Americas, which is inclusive of the United States, Canada, and Latin America; International, which is inclusive of China, Japan, Asia Pacific, Europe, Middle East, and Africa; and Channel Development. The company's Americas and International segments include both company-operated and licensed stores. The company's Channel Development segment includes roasted whole bean and ground coffees, Seattle's Best Coffee?, Starbucks- and Teavana-branded single-serve products, a variety of ready-to-drink beverages, and other products sold worldwide outside of the company's company-operated and licensed stores.

Toro Company

Toro designs, manufactures, and markets turf maintenance equipment and services, turf irrigation systems, landscaping equipment and lighting products, snow and ice management products, agricultural irrigation systems, rental and underground construction equipment, and residential yard and snow thrower products. The company's segments include: Professional, which markets its products worldwide through a network of distributors and dealers, as well as directly to government customers, rental companies, and retailers; and Residential, which markets its products to homeowners through outdoor power equipment distributors and dealers, mass retailers, hardware retailers, home centers, as well as online.

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated

UnitedHealth Group is a health care company. The company has four reportable segments across its two business platforms, UnitedHealthcare and Optum: UnitedHealthcare, which provides health care benefits to an array of customers and markets through its UnitedHealthcare Employer & Individual, UnitedHealthcare Medicare & Retirement, UnitedHealthcare Community & State and UnitedHealthcare Global; OptumHealth, which serves the physical, emotional and health-related financial needs of individuals; OptumInsight, which provides services, technology and health care knowledge to main participants in the health care industry; and OptumRx, which provides pharmacy care services and programs.

WEX INC

Wex is a provider of corporate card payment solutions. The company operates in three business segments: Fleet Solutions, which provides payment, transaction processing and information management services specifically designed for the needs of commercial and government fleets; Travel and Corporate Solutions, which focuses on the payment environment of business-to-business payments, providing customers with payment processing solutions for their corporate payment and transaction monitoring needs; and Health and Employee Benefit Solutions, which provides a software-as-a-service platform for consumer directed healthcare payments, as well as payroll related benefits to customers in Brazil.

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Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
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  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

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Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

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