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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2020 07 21

WGO currently trades below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with an 18.0x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to decline from 26% in 2019 to 18% in 2024, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset growth going forward. Analysts have similar expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to drop to 12% levels in 2020, amidst coronavirus-driven headwinds, before recovering to just 21% in 2021, accompanied by 9% Uniform asset growth as a result of the firm's acquisition of Newmar Corp. That said, management is confident about their acquisition of Newmar and that their Grand Design business and Newmar motorhomes continue to gain market share. Current valuations appear to be pricing in overly bearish expectations for WGO, and should they see profitability remain flat or expand, as positive management sentiment would suggest, material upside would be warranted.

BYND Q1 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for a material improvement in Uniform ROA, but management may be concerned about their ability to grow overseas, manage costs, and sustain growth with existing customers

SQ Q1 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA expansion, but management may be concerned about their Cash App, Seller ecosystem, and customer retention

WDC Q3 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to continue to decline, but management is confident about public cloud, growth, and demand

WGO, BYND, SQ, WDC, ADI, BERY. BWA, CPRT, CRM, EEFT, EPAM, FVRR, HOLX, HUBB, IPGP, IT, LYB, MAS, MPWR, NXPI, PANW, TTD, UHS, UTHR
Underlyings
Analog Devices Inc.

Analog Devices is an analog technology company. The company designs, manufactures, and markets a portfolio of solutions, including integrated circuits, algorithms, software, and subsystems. The company's analog products include data converter that translate real-world analog signals into digital data and also translate digital data into analog signals, amplifiers that condition analog signals, and power management and reference products that include functions such as power conversion, driver monitoring, sequencing and energy management. The company's digital signal processing products are designed to execute software programs, or algorithms, associated with processing digitized real-time, real-world data.

Berry Global Group Inc

Berry Global Group is a supplier of a range of non-woven products used within consumer and industrial end markets. The company's segments are: Consumer Packaging International, which includes recycling, bottles and canisters, containers, polythene films, and technical components product groups; Consumer Packaging North America, which includes containers and pails, foodservice, and tubes product groups; Engineered Materials, which includes stretch and shrink films, converter films, food and consumer films, retail bags, polyvinyl chloride films, and agriculture films product groups; and Health, and Hygiene and Specialties, which includes health products, hygiene products, and specialties products.

Beyond Meat

Beyond Meat is a food companies in the United States, offering a portfolio of plant-based meat products. The company builds meat directly from plants for the taste, texture and other sensory attributes of popular animal-based meat products while offering the nutritional benefits of eating plant-based meat products. The company has developed three core plant-based product platforms that align with the predominant meat categories globally: beef, pork and poultry. The company's flagship product is The Beyond Burger, a 100% plant-based burger merchandised in the meat case of grocery stores. All of the company's products are antibiotic-free, hormone-free, GMO-free and gluten-free.

BorgWarner Inc.

BorgWarner is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a global product provider in technology solutions for combustion, hybrid and electric vehicles. The company manufactures and sells these products worldwide, primarily to original equipment manufacturers of light vehicles (passenger cars, sport-utility vehicles, vans and light trucks). The company's segments are: Engine, which provides turbochargers, eBoosters, timing systems, emissions systems, thermal systems, gasoline ignition technology, cabin heaters, battery heaters and battery charging; and Drivetrain, which provides rotating electrical components, power electronics, clutching systems, control modules and all-wheel drive systems.

Copart Inc.

Copart is a provider of online auctions and vehicle remarketing services. The company provides vehicle sellers with a range of services to process and sell vehicles primarily over the Internet through its Virtual Bidding Third Generation Internet auction-style sales technology. Vehicle sellers consist primarily of insurance companies, but also include banks, finance companies, charities, fleet operators, dealers and vehicles sourced directly from individual owners. The company sells the vehicles principally to licensed vehicle dismantlers, rebuilders, repair licensees, used vehicle dealers and exporters and, at certain locations, to the general public.

EPAM Systems Inc.

Epam Systems is a provider of software product development and digital platform engineering services to customers located around the world, primarily in North America, Europe, Asia and Australia. The company's industry services include financial services, travel and consumer, software and hi-tech, business information and media, life sciences and healthcare, as well as other industries.

Euronet Worldwide Inc.

Euronet Worldwide is an electronic payments provider. The company provides payment and transaction processing and distribution solutions to financial institutions, retailers, service providers and individual consumers. The company operates three segments: Electronic Financial Transaction Processing, which processes transactions for a network of automated teller machines and point-of-sale terminals; epay, which provides distribution and processing of prepaid mobile airtime and other electronic content and payment processing services for various prepaid products, cards and services; and Money Transfer, which provides consumer-to-consumer and global account-to-account money transfer services.

Fiverr International

Gartner Inc.

Gartner is a research and advisory company. The company's principal products and services are delivered through its three business segments: Research, which provides insights and advice across various functional areas of the enterprise through research, briefings, proprietary tools, access to the company's research personnel, peer networking services and membership programs; Conferences, which provides business personnel across an organization the opportunity to learn, share and network; and Consulting, which helps chief information officers and other senior executives driving technology-related strategic initiatives move from insight to action.

Hologic Inc.

Hologic is a developer, manufacturer and supplier of diagnostics products, medical imaging systems, surgical products and light-based aesthetic and medical treatment systems. The company's segments are: Diagnostics, which provides diagnostic products which are used to aid in the diagnosis of human diseases; Breast Health, which provides solutions for breast cancer care for radiology, pathology and surgery; Medical Aesthetics, which provides aesthetic treatment systems, including SculpSure, PicoSure and MonaLisa Touch; GYN Surgical, which includes NovaSure Endometrial Ablation System to treat abnormal uterine bleeding; and Skeletal Health, which includes the Horizon DXA, a dual energy x-ray system.

Hubbell Incorporated Class B

Hubbell is primarily engaged in the design, manufacture and sale of electrical and electronic products for a range of non-residential and residential construction, industrial and utility applications. The company has two segments: Electrical, which comprised of businesses that sell stock and custom products including application wiring device products, electrical products, connector and grounding products, lighting fixtures and controls, components and assemblies, as well as other electrical equipment; and Power, which consists of operations for the design, manufacture and sale of transmission and distribution components primarily for the electrical utilities industry.

IPG Photonics Corporation

IPG Photonics is a developer and manufacturer of a line of fiber lasers, fiber amplifiers and diode lasers that are used in various applications, primarily in materials processing. The company designs and manufactures a range of optical fiber-based lasers and amplifiers. The company also makes packaged diodes, direct diode lasers, laser systems and communications components and systems. A majority of the company's products are designed to be used as general-purpose energy or light sources.

LyondellBasell Industries NV

LyondellBasell Industries is a chemical company. Co.'s chemicals businesses consist of processing plants that convert liquid and gaseous hydrocarbon feedstocks into plastic resins and other chemicals, and used by its customers to manufacture a range of products including food packaging, home furnishings, automotive components, paints and coatings. Co.'s refining business consists of its Houston refinery, which processes crude oil into products such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Co. manages its operations through five operating segments: Olefins and Polyolefins - Americas; Olefins and Polyolefins - Europe, Asia, International; Intermediates and Derivatives; Refining; and Technology.

Masco Corporation

Masco designs, manufactures and distributes home improvement and building products. The company's Plumbing Products include faucets, showerheads, handheld showers, valves, bath hardware and accessories, bathing units, shower bases and enclosures and toilets. This segment also includes brass, copper and composite plumbing system components and other non-decorative plumbing products. The company's Decorative Architectural Products include cabinet and door hardware, functional hardware, wall plates, hook and hook rail products, and picture hanging accessories. This segment also includes decorative indoor and outdoor lighting fixtures, ceiling fans, landscape lighting and LED lighting systems.

Monolithic Power Systems Inc.

Monolithic Power Systems is a fabless semiconductor company. The company designs, develops and markets power solutions for systems found in consumer, computing and storage, automotive, industrial, communications and consumer applications. The company's primary product families include the following: Direct Current (DC) to DC products, which are used to convert and control voltages within a range of electronic systems such as portable electronic devices, wireless Local Area Network access points, computers, and monitors, automobiles and medical equipment; and Lighting Control Products, which include lighting control integrated circuits that are used in backlighting and general illumination products.

NXP Semiconductors NV

NXP Semiconductors is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged as a global semiconductor company and a long-standing supplier in the industry. Co. provides High-Performance Mixed-Signal and Standard Product solutions. Co.'s product solutions are used in automotive, identification, wireless infrastructure, lighting, industrial, mobile, consumer and computing applications. Co. engages with original equipment manufacturers (OEM) and sell products in all major geographic regions.

Palo Alto Networks Inc.

Palo Alto Networks provides a platform that allows enterprises, service providers, and government entities to secure their organizations. The company's platform uses a traffic classification engine that identifies network traffic by application, user, and content and provides security across the network, endpoint, and cloud. The company's product, subscription, and support offerings include: firewall appliances and software; and Panorama, which is a centralized security management solution for global control of various firewall appliances and software deployed on an end-customer's network as well as in their instances in public or private cloud environments as a virtual appliance or a physical appliance.

Salesforce.com inc.

Salesforce.Com is engaged in customer relationship management technology. The company's Customer 360 is an integrated platform that unites sales, service, marketing, commerce, integration, analytics and more to give companies a single, shared view of their customers. Through its platform and other developer tools, the company also enables third parties to develop additional functionality and applications, or apps, that run on its platform, which are sold separately from or in conjunction with the company's service offerings. The company's cloud service offerings include sales cloud, service cloud, marketing and commerce cloud, and salesforce platform and other.

Square Inc. Class A

Square is a commerce ecosystem that combines software with hardware to enable sellers to turn mobile devices and computing devices into payment and point-of-sale solutions. With the company's offering, a seller can accept payments via magnetic stripe, Europay, MasterCard, and Visa, or Near Field Communication; or online via Square Invoices, Square Virtual Terminal, or the seller's website or app. Also, sellers can gain access to reporting and analytics, next-day settlements, digital receipts, payment dispute and chargeback management, security, and Payment Card Industry compliance. The company's Cash App enable individuals to send and receive money electronically to and from individuals and businesses.

Trade Desk Inc. Class A

The Trade Desk is a technology company for buyers of advertising. Through the company's self-service, cloud-based platform, ad buyers can create, manage, and optimize data-driven digital advertising campaigns across ad formats, including display, video, audio, native and social, on a multitude of devices, such as computers, mobile devices, and connected TV. The company's platform's integrations with data, inventory, and publisher partners provides ad buyers reach and decisioning capabilities, and its enterprise application programming interfaces enable its customers to develop on top of the platform.

United Therapeutics Corporation

United Therapeutics is a biotechnology company. The company markets and sells four commercial therapies to treat pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH): Remodulin? (treprostinil) Injection; Tyvaso? (treprostinil) Inhalation Solution; Orenitram? (treprostinil) Extended-Release Tablets; and Adcirca? (tadalafil) Tablets. The company also markets and sells an oncology product, Unituxin? (dinutuximab) Injection for treatment of high-risk neuroblastoma. The company also engages in research and development of new indications and formulations and delivery devices for its existing products, as well as new products to treat PAH and other conditions. The company also engages in organ transplantation-related technologies.

Universal Health Services Inc. Class B

Universal Health Services owns and operates, through its subsidiaries, acute care hospitals and outpatient facilities and behavioral health care facilities. The company owns and/or operates inpatient facilities and outpatient and other facilities located in several states including, Washington, D.C., the United Kingdom, and Puerto Rico. Services provided by the company's hospitals include general and specialty surgery, internal medicine, obstetrics, emergency room care, radiology, oncology, diagnostic care, coronary care, pediatric services, pharmacy services and/or behavioral health services. The company's reportable operating segments consist of acute care hospital services and behavioral health care services.

Western Digital Corporation

Western Digital is a developer, manufacturer, and provider of data storage devices and solutions. The company's portfolio of technology and products address the following markets: Client Devices, which consist of hard disk drives (HDDs) and solid state drives (SSDs) for computing devices, flash-based embedded storage products, and flash-based memory wafers and components; Data Center Devices and Solutions, which consist of enterprise HDDs and enterprise SSDs, data center software and system solutions; and Client Solutions, which consist of HDDs and SSDs embedded into external storage products and removable flash-based products, such as cards, universal serial bus flash drives and wireless drives.

Winnebago Industries Inc.

Winnebago Industries is a manufacturer with a portfolio of recreation vehicles and marine products used primarily in leisure travel and outdoor recreation activities. The company's reportable segments include: Towable, which is comprised of products which are not motorized and are generally towed by another vehicle as well as other related manufactured products and services; and Motorhome, which is comprised of products that include a motorized chassis as well as other related manufactured products and services. The company's subsidiary, Chris-Craft USA, Inc., manufactures and sells boats in the recreational powerboat industry through a network of independent authorized dealers.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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