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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2019 08 07

FB currently trades above historical averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 26.5x Uniform P/E. Even at these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to decline significantly, from 45% in 2018 to 23% in 2023, accompanied by 15% Uniform Asset growth going forward. Analysts have similar expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to fade to 25% by 2020, accompanied by 38% Uniform Asset growth. That said, although management's concerns about privacy controls, government regulation, and expenses suggest the potential for near-term headwinds, the firm maintains a leadership position in its space and management is confident about user engagement rates and DAU. Should the firm see profitability remain near historically low levels, longer-term upside still remains warranted.

POST Q2 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for POST to see Uniform ROA decline, but management is confident about their Refrigerated Retail segment and marketing efforts.

INTU Q3 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for rapid Uniform ROA expansion, however management is concerned about growth, ARPC, and innovation.

MPWR Q1 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to expand, but management has concerns about margins, e-commerce, and growth.

ANTM, BERY, BP.:GBR, CTXS, DAL, EPD, FB, GNTX, HDS, IBM, INTU, KBH, LB, MCFT, MIDD, MPW, MPWR, PEP, POST, QRVO, SERV, SUPN.
Underlyings
Anthem Inc.

Anthem is an insurance holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a health benefits company, serving medical members through its affiliated health plans. The company has three segments: Commercial & Specialty Business, which provides fully-insured health products, managed care services to self-funded customers, and other insurance products and services; Government Business, which includes Medicare and Medicaid businesses, its subsidiary, National Government Services, and services provided to the federal government in connection with its Federal Health Products and Services business; and Other, which includes pharmacy benefits management business and integrated health services business.

Berry Global Group Inc

Berry Global Group is a supplier of a range of non-woven products used within consumer and industrial end markets. The company's segments are: Consumer Packaging International, which includes recycling, bottles and canisters, containers, polythene films, and technical components product groups; Consumer Packaging North America, which includes containers and pails, foodservice, and tubes product groups; Engineered Materials, which includes stretch and shrink films, converter films, food and consumer films, retail bags, polyvinyl chloride films, and agriculture films product groups; and Health, and Hygiene and Specialties, which includes health products, hygiene products, and specialties products.

BP PLC ADS

Citrix Systems Inc.

Citrix Systems is an enterprise software company. The company markets and licenses its solutions through multiple channels worldwide, including selling through resellers, direct and over the Web. The company's partner community comprises thousands of value-added resellers known as Citrix Solution Advisors, value-added distributors, systems integrators, independent software vendors, original equipment manufacturers and Citrix Service Providers. The company provides solutions and services that it categorizes into three inter-related and complementary areas: Workspace, Networking and Professional Services.

Delta Air Lines Inc.

Delta Air Lines provides scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo. The company serves the Transatlantic, Transpacific and Latin America markets directly on the company and through joint ventures with airline partners. Internationally, the company has hubs and market presence in Amsterdam, London-Heathrow, Mexico City, Paris-Charles de Gaulle and Seoul-Incheon. These arrangements are commercial joint ventures that include joint sales and marketing coordination, co-location of airport facilities and other commercial cooperation arrangements. The company has other businesses arising from its airline operations, including providing maintenance and engineering support for its regional aircraft.

Enterprise Products Partners L.P.

Enterprise Products Partners is a provider of midstream energy services to producers and consumers of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), crude oil, petrochemicals and refined products. The company's midstream energy operations include: natural gas gathering, treating, processing, transportation and storage; NGL transportation, fractionation, storage, and export and import terminals; crude oil gathering, transportation, storage, and export and import terminals; petrochemical and refined products transportation, storage, export and import terminals, and related services; and a marine transportation business that operates primarily on the U.S. inland and Intracoastal Waterway systems.

Facebook Inc. Class A

Facebook is building and engaging products that enable people to connect and share with friends and family through mobile devices, personal computers, virtual reality headsets, and in-home devices. The company's products include: Facebook, which enables people to connect, share, discover, and communicate with each other on mobile devices and personal computers; Instagram, which is a place where people can express themselves through photos, videos, and private messaging, and explore their interests in businesses, creators and communities; Messenger and WhatsApp, which are messaging applications; and Oculus, which connects people through its Oculus virtual reality products.

Gentex Corporation

Gentex designs and manufactures automatic-dimming rearview mirrors and electronics for the automotive industry, dimmable aircraft windows for the aviation industry, and commercial smoke alarms and signaling devices for the fire protection industry. The company's key business involves designing, developing, manufacturing and marketing interior and exterior automatic-dimming automotive rearview mirrors that use electrochromic technology to dim in proportion to the amount of headlight glare from trailing vehicle headlamps. The company also designs, develops and manufactures various electronics features to the interior and exterior automotive rearview mirrors as well as interior visors and overhead consoles.

HD Supply Holdings Inc.

HD Supply Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an industrial distributor in North America. The company's segments include: Facilities Maintenance and Construction and Industrial. The company's Facilities Maintrnance segment distributes maintenance, repair and operations products, provides services and fabricates custom products. Products include electrical and lighting items, and plumbing, heating, ventilating, and air conditioning products. The company's Construction and Industrial segment distributes hardware, tools and materials to non-residential and residential contractors. Products include tilt-up brace systems, forming and shoring systems, concrete chemicals, and cutting tools.

International Business Machines Corporation

International Business Machines provides integrated solutions and products that utilize data, information technology, capability in industries and business processes. The company has five segments: Cloud and Cognitive Software, which provides a range of software offerings; Global Business Services, which provides consulting, systems integration, application management and business process outsourcing services; Global Technology Services, which provides project services, managed and outsourcing services, cloud-delivered services, and technical and IT support services; Systems, which provides technology and service; and Global Financing, which provides client financing, among others.

Intuit Inc.

Intuit helps consumers, small businesses, and the self-employed prosper by delivering financial management and compliance products and services. The company also provides tax products to accounting personnels, who are main partners that help the company serves small business customers. The company organizes its businesses into three reportable segments: Small Business and Self-Employed, which provides QuickBooks financial management solutions to solve financial and compliance problems; Consumer, which includes TurboTax products and services to prepare and file income tax returns; and Strategic Partner, which includes professional tax offerings and serve professional accountants in United States and Canada.

KB Home

KB Home is a homebuilding company. The company builds a variety of homes designed primarily for first-time and first move-up, as well as second move-up and active adult homebuyers, including attached and detached single-family residential homes, townhomes and condominiums. The company's financial services operations provide various insurance products to its homebuyers in the markets where it builds homes and provide title services in certain of those markets. The company's financial services operations also provide mortgage banking services, including residential consumer mortgage loan originations, to its homebuyers indirectly through KBHS Home Loans, LLC, a joint venture the company formed with Stearns Lending, LLC.

L Brands Inc.

L Brands is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a specialty retailer of women's intimate and other apparel, personal care, beauty and home fragrance products. The company sells its merchandise through company-owned specialty retail stores in the U.S., Canada, the U.K., Ireland and Greater China, and through its websites and other channels. The company's other international operations are primarily through franchise, license and wholesale partners. The company has three reportable segments: Victoria's Secret, Bath & Body Works and Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works International. The company operates the following retail brands: Victoria's Secret, PINK and Bath & Body Works.

MasterCraft Boat Holdings

MasterCraft Boat Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a designer, manufacturer, and marketer of recreational powerboats sold under MasterCraft, NauticStar, Crest, and Aviara brands. The company's segments include: MasterCraft, which produces MasterCraft and Aviara boats for water skiing, wakeboarding, wake surfing, and general recreational boating; NauticStar, which produces boats for saltwater fishing and general recreational boating; and Crest, which produces pontoon boats which are primarily used for general recreational boating. In addition, the company provides various accessories, including trailers and aftermarket parts.

Medical Properties Trust Inc.

Medical Properties Trust is a self-advised real estate investment trust. The company invests in: General acute care, which provides inpatient care for the treatment of acute conditions and manifestations of chronic conditions; Inpatient rehabilitation hospitals, which provides rehabilitation to patients with various neurological, musculoskeletal orthopedic, and other medical conditions following stabilization of their acute medical issues; and long-term acute care hospitals, a specialty-care hospital designed for patients with serious medical problems that require intense, special treatment for an extended period of time, sometimes requiring a hospital stay averaging in excess of three weeks.

Middleby Corporation

Middleby is engaged in the design, manufacture, marketing, distribution, and service of a line of foodservice equipment, food preparation, cooking, baking, chilling and packaging equipment, and kitchen equipment. The company's segments are: the Commercial Foodservice Equipment Group, which provides foodservice equipment to serve cooking, warming, refrigeration, freezing and beverage application within a commercial kitchen or foodservice operation; the Food Processing Equipment Group, which provides processing solutions for customers producing pre-cooked meat products; and the Residential Kitchen Equipment Group, which manufactures, sells and distributes kitchen equipment for the residential market.

Monolithic Power Systems Inc.

Monolithic Power Systems is a fabless semiconductor company. The company designs, develops and markets power solutions for systems found in consumer, computing and storage, automotive, industrial, communications and consumer applications. The company's primary product families include the following: Direct Current (DC) to DC products, which are used to convert and control voltages within a range of electronic systems such as portable electronic devices, wireless Local Area Network access points, computers, and monitors, automobiles and medical equipment; and Lighting Control Products, which include lighting control integrated circuits that are used in backlighting and general illumination products.

PepsiCo Inc.

PepsiCo is a food and beverage company. The company's segments include: Frito-Lay North America, which includes food and snack businesses in the United States and Canada; Quaker Foods North America, which includes cereal, rice, pasta and other food businesses in the United States and Canada; PepsiCo Beverages North America, which includes beverage businesses in the United States and Canada; Latin America, which includes beverage, food and snack businesses in Latin America; Europe, which includes beverage, food and snack businesses in Europe; and Africa, Middle East and South Asia, which includes beverage, food and snack businesses in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia.

Post Holdings Inc.

Post Holdings is a consumer packaged goods holding company. The company's segments are: Post Consumer Brands, which manufactures, markets and sells branded and private label ready-to-eat (RTE) cereal and hot cereal products; Weetabix, which markets and distributes branded and private label RTE cereal products; Foodservice, which produces and distributes egg and potato products; Refrigerated Retail, which produces and distributes side dishes, eggs and egg, cheese, sausage and other refrigerated products; and BellRing Brands, which markets and distributes ready-to-drink protein shakes, other RTD beverages, powders, nutrition bars and supplements in the nutrition category.

Qorvo Inc.

Qorvo is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company designs, develops, manufactures and markets its products to U.S. and international original equipment manufacturers and original design manufacturers in two operating segments: Mobile Products, which is a supplier of cellular radio frequency (RF) and Wi-Fi solutions for mobile devices, including smartphones, wearables, laptops, tablets and cellular-based applications for the Internet of Things (IoT); and Infrastructure and Defense Products, which is a supplier of RF and system-on-a-chip solutions for cellular base stations and other wireless communications infrastructure, defense, smart home, automotive and other IoT applications.

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Supernus Pharmaceuticals is a pharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing products for the treatment of central nervous system diseases. The company has launched Oxtellar XR and Trokendi XR, its two treatments for epilepsy. In addition, the company has launched Trokendi XR for the prophylaxis of migraine headache in adults and adolescents. The company's product candidates for the treatment of psychiatric disorders include: SPN-810 to treat impulsive aggression in children and adolescents who have attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD); SPN-812, a non-stimulant candidate to treat patients who have ADHD; SPN-809 for the treatment of depression; and SPN-604 for the treatment of bipolar.

Terminix Global Holdings Inc

ServiceMaster Global Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides services to residential and commercial customers in the termite, pest control, cleaning and restoration markets, operating through a network of company-owned locations and franchise and license agreements. The company's portfolio of brands includes Terminix (residential termite and pest control), Terminix Commercial (commercial termite and pest control), Copesan (commercial national accounts pest management), ServiceMaster Restore (restoration), ServiceMaster Clean (commercial cleaning), Merry Maids (residential cleaning), Furniture Medic (cabinet and furniture repair) and AmeriSpec (home inspections).

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  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
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Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

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