Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2020 03 24

GILD currently trades well below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 7.7x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to fade materially, from 30% in 2019 to 8% in 2024, accompanied by 10% Uniform Asset growth going forward. Analysts have similar expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to decline to 23% by 2021, accompanied by 29% Uniform Asset growth, driven by the acquisition of Forty Seven. However, management is confident about the strength of their pipeline, and the potential of their acquisitions and treatments. Current valuations appear to be pricing in overly bearish expectations for GILD, and should the firm just limit its profitability decline, as positive management sentiment and analyst expectations suggest, upside would be warranted.

GOOGL Q4 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to continue declining, but management is confident about their sales, G Suite, and business strength

INCY Q4 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA compression, but management is confident about their revenue, pipeline, and TRuE-AD studies

APH Q4 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to fade materially, but management is confident about their earnings quality, mobile devices, and long-term prospects
GILD, APH, GOOGL, INCY, ABBV, ALGN, AOS, ATVI, FFIV, HUBB, JNJ, KHC, MPWR, MTCH, NVDA, SPGI, SSNC, STZ, SWK, TMUS
Underlyings
A. O. Smith Corporation

A.O. Smith is comprised of North America and Rest of World reporting segments. The company's Rest of World segment is primarily comprised of China, Europe and India. Both segments manufacture and market lines of residential and commercial gas and electric water heaters, boilers, tanks and water treatment products. Both segments primarily manufacture and market in their respective regions of the world. The company's Rest of World segment also manufactures and markets in-home air purification products in China. The company serves residential and commercial end markets in North America with a range of products including water heaters, boilers, water treatment products, and other.

AbbVie Inc.

AbbVie is a research-based biopharmaceutical company. The company's products are focused on treating conditions such as chronic autoimmune diseases in rheumatology, gastroenterology and dermatology; oncology, including blood cancers; virology, including hepatitis C virus and human immunodeficiency virus; neurological disorders, such as Parkinson's disease; metabolic diseases, including thyroid disease and complications associated with cystic fibrosis; pain associated with endometriosis; as well as other serious health conditions. The company also has medicines in clinical development across immunology, oncology and neuroscience, with additional targeted investment in cystic fibrosis and women's health.

Activision Blizzard Inc.

Activision Blizzard is a global developer and publisher of interactive entertainment content and services. The company's segments are: Activision Publishing, Inc., which is a global developer and publisher of interactive software products and entertainment content, particularly for the console platform; Blizzard Entertainment, Inc., which is a global developer and publisher of interactive software products and entertainment content, particularly for the personal computers platform; and King Digital Entertainment, which is a global developer and publisher of interactive entertainment content and services, particularly for the mobile platform, including for Google Inc.'s Android and Apple Inc.'s iOS.

Align Technology Inc.

Align Technology is a medical device company engaged in the design, manufacture and marketing of Invisalign? clear aligners and iTero? intraoral scanners and services for orthodontics, restorative and aesthetic dentistry. The company's segments are: Clear Aligner, which includes the Invisalign System, a method for treating malocclusion based on a proprietary computer-simulated virtual treatment plan and a series of doctor-prescribed, custom manufactured, clear plastic, removable aligners; and Scanners and Services, which includes Intraoral scanning that enables the dental practitioner to create a 3D image of the patient's teeth (digital scan) using a handheld intraoral scanner.

Alphabet Inc. Class A

Alphabet is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in a collection of businesses, which its primary business is Google. The company reports all non-Google businesses collectively as Other Bets. Google's main products and platforms are Android, Chrome, Gmail, Google Drive, Google Maps, Google Play, Search, and YouTube. The company also provides advertisers with tools that help them attribute and measure their advertising campaigns. In addition, Other Bets includes Access, Calico, CapitalG, GV, Verily, Waymo, and X, among others. Other Bets primarily engages in the sales of internet and TV services through Access as well as licensing and research and development services through Verily.

Amphenol Corporation Class A

Amphenol is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of electrical, electronic and fiber optic connectors and interconnect systems, antennas, sensors and sensor-based products and coaxial and high-speed cable. The company's segments are: Interconnect Products and Assemblies, which designs, manufactures and markets a range of connector and connector systems, and other products, including antennas and sensors, used in a range of applications in a set of end markets; and Cable Products and Solutions, which designs, manufactures and markets cable, products and components for use primarily in the broadband communications and information technology markets as well as certain applications in other markets.

Constellation Brands Inc. Class A

Constellation Brands is an international beverage alcohol company. The company is a producer and marketer of beer, wine and spirits with operations in the U.S., Mexico, New Zealand, Italy and Canada. The company has two segments: Beer, in which the company is engaged in the U.S. beer market that includes the imported, craft, domestic super premium, and alternative beverage alcohol categories and it has the right to import, market and sell these Mexican beer brands in the U.S.; and Wine and Spirits, in which its wine portfolio is supported by grapes purchased from independent growers, primarily in the U.S., New Zealand and Chile, and vineyard holdings in the U.S., New Zealand and Italy.

F5 Networks Inc.

F5 Networks is a provider of multi-cloud application services, which enable its customers to develop, deploy, operate, secure, and govern applications in any architecture, from on-premises to the public cloud. The company's application services are available as cloud-based, software-as-a-service, and software-only solutions supported for multi-cloud environments. In connection with its solutions, the company provides a range of services, including consulting, training, installation, maintenance, and other technical support services. The company's products and solutions include hardware platforms, software and software-as-a-service platforms, cloud-based managed services, and service provider solutions.

Gilead Sciences Inc.

Gilead Sciences is a research-based biopharmaceutical company that discovers, develops and commercializes medicines. The company's primary areas of focus include viral diseases, inflammatory and fibrotic diseases and oncology. The company's products include: Biktarvy for the treatment of HIV-1 infection in certain patients; Vosevi?, a single tablet regimen of sofosbuvir, velpatasvir and voxilaprevir for the re-treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus infection in adults; Vemlidy? for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B virus infection in adults with compensated liver disease; and Yescarta (axicabtagene ciloleucel) for the treatment of adult patients with relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphoma.

Hubbell Incorporated Class B

Hubbell is primarily engaged in the design, manufacture and sale of electrical and electronic products for a range of non-residential and residential construction, industrial and utility applications. The company has two segments: Electrical, which comprised of businesses that sell stock and custom products including application wiring device products, electrical products, connector and grounding products, lighting fixtures and controls, components and assemblies, as well as other electrical equipment; and Power, which consists of operations for the design, manufacture and sale of transmission and distribution components primarily for the electrical utilities industry.

INCYTE CORP

Incyte is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of therapeutics. JAKAFI (ruxolitinib) has been approved for the treatment of patients with intermediate or high-risk myelofibrosis, for the treatment of patients with polycythemia vera, and for the treatment of steroid-refractory acute graft-versus-host disease in adult and pediatric patients 12 years and older. The company has also obtained a license to develop and commercialize ICLUSIG (ponatinib) in Europe and other select countries. In the European Union, ICLUSIG is approved for the treatment of adult patients with chronic phase, accelerated phase or blast phase chronic myeloid leukemia.

Johnson & Johnson

Johnson & Johnson is a holding company engaged in the research and development, manufacture and sale of a range of products in the health care field. The company has three business segments: Consumer, which includes a range of products focused on personal healthcare used in the beauty, over-the-counter pharmaceutical, baby care, oral care, women's health and wound care markets; Pharmaceutical, which is focused on six therapeutic areas: immunology, infectious diseases, neuroscience, oncology, cardiovascular and metabolism and pulmonary hypertension; and Medical Devices, which includes products used in the orthopaedic, surgery, interventional solutions, and eye health fields.

Kraft Heinz Company

Kraft Heinz is a food and beverage company. The company manufactures and markets food and beverage products, including condiments and sauces, cheese and dairy, meals, meats, refreshment beverages, coffee, and other grocery products throughout the world. The company has three reportable segments defined by geographic region: United States, Canada, and Europe, Middle East, and Africa. The company's remaining businesses are combined and disclosed as Rest of World. Rest of World comprises two operating segments: Latin America and Asia Pacific.

Match Group Inc.

Match Group is a provider of dating products available in over 40 languages to its users all over the world through applications and websites it owns and operates. The company operates a portfolio of brands, including Tinder, Match, PlentyOfFish, Meetic, OkCupid, OurTime, Pairs and Hinge, as well as a number other brands. Through its portfolio of brands, the company provides tailored products to meet the varying preferences of its users. All the company's products enable users to establish a profile and review other users' profiles without charge. Each product also provides additional features, some of which are free, and some of which require payment depending on the particular product.

Monolithic Power Systems Inc.

Monolithic Power Systems is a fabless semiconductor company. The company designs, develops and markets power solutions for systems found in consumer, computing and storage, automotive, industrial, communications and consumer applications. The company's primary product families include the following: Direct Current (DC) to DC products, which are used to convert and control voltages within a range of electronic systems such as portable electronic devices, wireless Local Area Network access points, computers, and monitors, automobiles and medical equipment; and Lighting Control Products, which include lighting control integrated circuits that are used in backlighting and general illumination products.

NVIDIA Corporation

NVIDIA engages in graphics processing unit (GPU)-based visual computing and accelerated computing platforms. The company has two segments, GPU and Tegra Processor, which are based on a single underlying architecture. The company's GPU product brands are aimed at markets including GeForce for gamers; Quadro for designers; Tesla and DGX for artificial intelligence data scientists and big data researchers; and GRID for cloud-based visual computing users. The company's Tegra brand integrates an entire computer onto a single chip, and incorporates GPUs and multi-core CPUs to drive supercomputing for autonomous robots, drones, and cars, as well as for game consoles and mobile gaming and entertainment devices.

S&P Global Inc.

S&P Global is a provider of transparent and independent ratings, benchmarks, analytics and data to the capital and commodity markets worldwide. The company's segments include: S&P Global Ratings, which provides credit ratings, research and analytics; S&P Global Market Intelligence, which provides multi-asset-class data, research and analytical capabilities that integrate cross-asset analytics and desktop services; S&P Global Platts, which provides information and benchmark prices for the commodity and energy markets; and S&P Dow Jones Indices, which provides a variety of valuation and index benchmarks for investment advisors, wealth managers and institutional investors.

SS&C Technologies Holdings Inc.

SS&C Technologies Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a provider of software products and software-enabled services that allow financial services providers to automate business processes and manage their information processing requirements. The company provides its solutions to clients principally within the institutional asset and wealth management, alternative investment management, financial advisory and financial institutions vertical markets. In addition, the company's clients include commercial lenders, real estate investment trusts, corporate treasury groups, insurance and pension funds, municipal finance groups and real estate property managers.

Stanley Black & Decker Inc.

Stanley Black & Decker is a provider of hand tools, power tools and related accessories, engineered fastening systems and products, services and equipment for oil and gas and infrastructure applications, commercial electronic security and monitoring systems, healthcare solutions, and automatic doors. The company's segments include: Tools and Storage, which is comprised of the power tools and equipment and hand tools, accessories and storage businesses; Industrial, which is comprised of the engineered fastening and infrastructure businesses; and Security, which is comprised of the convergent security solutions and the mechanical access solutions businesses.

T-Mobile US Inc.

T-Mobile US provides mobile communications services, including voice, messaging and data, under its brands, T-Mobile and Metro? by T-Mobile, in the United States, Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands. The company provides mobile communications services using its 4G Long-Term Evolution network and its 5G technology network. The company also provides various wireless devices, including handsets, tablets and other mobile communication devices, and accessories for sale, as well as financing through Equipment Installment Plans and leasing through JUMP! On Demand?. The company provides reinsurance for handset insurance policies and extended warranty contracts offered to its mobile communications customers.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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