Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2020 08 18

ISRG currently trades near historical highs relative to Uniform earnings with a 43.2x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to decline from 46% in 2019 to 38% in 2024, accompanied by 17% Uniform asset growth going forward. Meanwhile, analysts have slightly more bearish expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to fall to 35% levels through 2021, accompanied by 6% Uniform asset growth. That said, management is confident about their outlook, market trends, and newly deployed tools. Current valuations appear to be pricing in overly bearish expectations for ISRG, and should the company see profitability remain flat or expand, as positive management sentiment would suggest, material upside may be warranted.

WBT Q1 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Markets have expectations for continued Uniform ROA declines, but management is confident about increased demand, low SG&A expenses, and their cost structure relative to production

COMM Q1 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to fall significantly, but management is confident about their coronavirus reaction, their positioning, and costs

VSAT Q4 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to remain muted, and management may be concerned about commercial airliners, capex, and their financial position

ISRG, COMM, VSAT, WBT, ADNT, AN, AOS, AVGO, BECN, BIIB, CVS, DIS, DUK, NKE, NSIT, NTCT, SEDG, V, VGR, ZM
Underlyings
A. O. Smith Corporation

A.O. Smith is comprised of North America and Rest of World reporting segments. The company's Rest of World segment is primarily comprised of China, Europe and India. Both segments manufacture and market lines of residential and commercial gas and electric water heaters, boilers, tanks and water treatment products. Both segments primarily manufacture and market in their respective regions of the world. The company's Rest of World segment also manufactures and markets in-home air purification products in China. The company serves residential and commercial end markets in North America with a range of products including water heaters, boilers, water treatment products, and other.

Adient plc

AutoNation Inc.

AutoNation, through its subsidiaries, is an automotive retailer. The company provides a range of automotive products and services, including new vehicles, used vehicles, parts and service, which includes automotive repair and maintenance services as well as wholesale parts and collision businesses, and automotive finance and insurance products, which include vehicle service and other protection products, and the arranging of financing for vehicle purchases through third-party finance sources. The company owns and operates new vehicle franchises from stores located in the United States, in main metropolitan markets in the Sunbelt region. The company has three segments: Domestic, Import, and Premium Luxury.

Beacon Roofing Supply Inc.

Beacon Roofing Supply is a distributor of roofing materials and complementary building products in the United States and Canada. The complementary building products the company distributes include siding, windows, insulation, waterproofing systems, wallboard, acoustical ceilings, and other exterior and interior building products. The company purchases products from manufacturers and then distributes these goods to a customer base consisting of contractors, and to a lesser extent, home builders, retailers, and other building materials suppliers. The company supports its customers with services such as advice and assistance on product identification, specification and technical support, and training services.

Biogen Inc.

Biogen is a biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering, developing and delivering therapies for people living with neurological and neurodegenerative diseases as well as related therapeutic adjacencies. The company's main growth areas include multiple sclerosis (MS) and neuroimmunology; Alzheimer's disease and dementia; neuromuscular disorders, including spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis; movement disorders, including Parkinson's disease; and ophthalmology. The company's marketed products include TECFIDERA, AVONEX, PLEGRIDY, TYSABRI, VUMERITY and FAMPYRA for the treatment of MS, SPINRAZA for the treatment of SMA and FUMADERM for the treatment of severe plaque psoriasis.

Broadcom Inc.

Broadcom, via its subsidiaries, is a designer, developer and supplier of a range of semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The company develops semiconductor devices with a focus on digital and mixed signal complementary metal oxide semiconductor based devices and analog III-V based products. The company provides products that are used in end products such as enterprise and data center networking, home connectivity, set-top boxes, broadband access, telecommunication equipment, smartphones and base stations, data center servers and storage systems, and factory automation. The company has three segments: semiconductor solutions, infrastructure software and intellectual property licensing.

CommScope Holding Co. Inc.

CommScope Holding is a provider of infrastructure solutions for communication networks. The company's solutions and services for wired and wireless networks enable high-bandwidth data, video and voice applications. The company's operating segments are: CommScope Connectivity Solutions (CCS) and CommScope Mobility Solutions (CMS). The CCS segment is engaged in providing fiber optic and copper connectivity solutions for use in data centers and business enterprise, telecommunications, cable television and residential broadband networks. The CMS segment is engaged in providing infrastructure for wireless networks.

CVS Health Corporation

CVS Health is a health company. The company's segments are: Pharmacy Services, which provides a range of pharmacy benefit management solutions, including plan design offerings and administration, formulary management, and retail pharmacy network management services; Retail/Long-Term Care (LTC), which sells prescription drugs and general merchandise, including over-the-counter drugs, provides health care services through its MinuteClinic? walk-in medical clinics and conducts LTC pharmacy operations; and Health Care Benefits, which provides a range of voluntary and consumer-directed health insurance products and related services, including medical, pharmacy, dental and behavioral health plans.

Duke Energy Corporation

Duke Energy is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company operates as an energy company. The company's segments include: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure, which provides retail electric service through the generation, transmission, distribution and sale of electricity to customers within the Southeast and Midwest regions of the United States; Gas Utilities and Infrastructure, which conducts natural gas operations, as well as owns, operates and has investments in various pipeline transmission and natural gas storage facilities; and Commercial Renewables, which acquires, develops, builds, operates and owns wind and solar renewable generation throughout the continental United States.

Insight Enterprises Inc.

Insight Enterprises is a provider of digital technology, cloud/data center optimization, connected workforce, and supply chain optimization solutions and services. The company is organized in the following three operating segments, which are primarily defined by their related geographies: North America; Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA); and Asia-Pacific (APAC). The company's offerings in North America and certain countries in EMEA and APAC include a suite of information technology hardware, software and services solutions. The company's offerings in the remainder of its EMEA and APAC segments are primarily software and certain software-related services.

Intuitive Surgical Inc.

Intuitive Surgical develops, manufactures, and markets the da Vinci? Surgical System and the Ion? endoluminal system. The systems consist of a surgeon console or consoles, a patient-side cart, a vision system, and proprietary instruments and accessories. The company's technology is designed to provide surgeons with a range of motion analogous to the motions of a human wrist, while filtering out the tremors inherent in a surgeon's hands. The company's primary platform for robotic-assisted surgery is its family of da Vinci Surgical Systems. The da Vinci Surgical System allows surgeons to operate while seated at an ergonomic console viewing a three-dimensional image of the surgical field.

NetScout Systems Inc.

NetScout Systems provides service assurance and security solutions that are used by customers to assure their digital business services against disruption. Using its Adaptive Service Intelligence technology, the company's solutions convert network traffic data, often referred to as wire data, into metadata, or smart data, the company's offerings can help customers identify and troubleshoot network and application performance issues, defend their networks from distributed denial of service attacks, and find and isolate network threats. The company's products are categorized as service assurance solutions for network and application performance, and business intelligence analytics and cybersecurity solutions.

NIKE Inc. Class B

NIKE is engaged in the design, development and marketing and selling of athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, accessories and services. The company focuses its NIKE Brand product offerings in Running, NIKE Basketball, the Jordan Brand, Football (Soccer), Training and Sportswear categories. The company markets products designed for kids, as well as for other athletic and recreational uses such as American football, baseball, cricket, golf, lacrosse, tennis, walking, and other outdoor activities. The company has license agreements that permit unaffiliated parties to manufacture and sell, using the company-owned trademarks, certain apparel, digital devices and applications and other equipment designed for sports activities.

SolarEdge Technologies Inc.

SolarEdge Technologies designs, develops, and sells an intelligent inverter solution designed for power generation at the individual photovoltaic module level. The company's products consist mainly of power optimizers designed to maximize energy throughput from each and every module via constant tracking of Maximum Power Point individually per module; inverters, which invert direct current from the PV module to alternating current; a related cloud-based monitoring platform; and a storage solution that is used to increase energy independence and maximize self-consumption for homeowners by utilizing a battery that is sold separately by third party manufacturers, to store and supply power as needed.

Vector Group Ltd.

Vector Group is a holding company. The company is engaged principally in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes in the U.S. through its Liggett Group LLC (Liggett) and Vector Tobacco Inc. subsidiaries; and the real estate business through its New Valley LLC (New Valley) subsidiary. The company's business segments were Tobacco, and Real Estate. The Tobacco segment consists of the manufacture and sale of conventional cigarettes. The Real Estate segment includes the company's investment in New Valley, which includes Douglas Elliman, Escena, Sagaponack and investments in real estate ventures.

ViaSat Inc.

ViaSat is a provider of broadband technologies and services. The company conducts its business through three segments: satellite services, which provides satellite-based broadband services to consumers, enterprises, and mobile broadband customers; commercial networks, which develops and produces a variety of satellite and wireless products, systems and solutions that enable the provision of fixed and mobile broadband services; and government systems, which provides global mobile broadband services to military and government users, and develops and produces network-centric Internet Protocol-based fixed and mobile communications products and solutions.

Visa Inc. Class A

Visa is engaged in digital payments. The company facilitates payments between consumers and businesses. The company is focused on its proprietary network, VisaNet, to provide products and services. The company provides a portfolio of business payment solutions, including small business, corporate (travel) cards, purchasing cards, virtual cards/digital credentials, non-card cross-border business-to-business payment options and disbursement accounts, covering various main industry segments around the world. The company also provides several capabilities and services, including fraud prevention and security, processing, loyalty, merchant and digital solutions, consulting and data solutions.

Walt Disney Company

Walt Disney is an entertainment company. The company's segments are: Media Networks, which includes domestic cable networks, broadcast television network and domestic television stations, and television production and distribution; Parks, Experiences and Products, which includes theme parks and resorts, and consumer products operations; Studio Entertainment, which includes motion picture production and distribution, music production and distribution, and post-production services; and Direct-to-Consumer and International, which includes international television networks and channels, direct-to-consumer streaming services, and other digital content distribution platforms and services.

Welbilt Inc

Welbilt is a commercial foodservice equipment company. The company designs, manufactures and supplies food and beverage equipment for the commercial foodservice market. The company's products are used by commercial and institutional foodservice operators including restaurants, quick-service restaurant chains, hotels, resorts, cruise ships, caterers, supermarkets, convenience stores, hospitals, schools and other institutions. The company's portfolio of brands includes Cleveland?, Convotherm?, Crem?, Delfield?, Frymaster?, Garland?, Kolpak?, Lincoln?, Manitowoc? Ice, Merco?, Merrychef? and Multiplex?. The company's products brands are supported by FitKitchen?, KitchenCare?, and KitchenConnect?.

Zoom Video Communications Inc. Class A

Zoom Video Communications provides a video-first communications platform that delivers happiness and fundamentally changes how people interact. The company connects people through frictionless video, voice, chat and content sharing and enable face-to-face video experiences for thousands of people in a single meeting across disparate devices and locations. The company's cloud-native platform delivers reliable, high-quality video that is easy to use, manage and deploy, provides an attractive return on investment, is scalable and easily integrates with physical spaces and applications.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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