Report
Valens Research

AAPL - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2020 12 18

Apple Inc. (AAPL:USA) currently trades at a historical high relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 27.8x Uniform P/E. Even at these levels, the market has bearish expectations for the firm, and management appears concerned about revenue growth, iPhone 12 mini and Pro Max pricing, and other Apple products

Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to sustain revenue growth and invest in the new services they will launch going forward. Moreover, they may be concerned about the pricing of their iPhone 12 mini and iPhone 12 Pro Max. Furthermore, they may be exaggerating the potential of AppleCare in supporting more customers and their Apple Watch, HomePod, and MagSafe ecosystem. Finally, they may lack confidence in their ability to maintain the positive response to the Apple Watch Series 6, deliver deep personalization with Apple Fitness+, and sustain the partnership with Singapore through LumiHealth
Underlying
Apple Inc.

Apple designs, manufactures and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related services. The company's products include: iPhone; Mac; iPad; and wearables, home and accessories, which includes AirPods?, Apple TV?, Apple Watch?, Beats? products, HomePod?, iPod touch? and other Apple-branded and third-party accessories. The company's services include: digital content stores and streaming services; AppleCare, which includes AppleCare + (AC+) and the AppleCare Protection Plan; iCloud, which is the company's cloud service; licensing; and other services, which include Apple Arcade?, Apple Card?, Apple News+, and Apple Pay, a cashless payment service.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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Valens Research

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