Report
Valens Research

AAPL - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 05 28

Apple Inc. (AAPL:USA) currently trades above recent averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 21.7x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in bullish expectations for the firm, but management appears concerned about dividend increases, international performance, and their Services business

Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to maintain their performance in China and continue to raise their dividend. Furthermore, they may be overstating the iPhone 12's 5G capabilities, Find My network's effectiveness with third-party products, and the potential of Apple Card Family credit card sharing. Moreover, management may lack confidence in their ability to ensure user data privacy, sustain paid Apple TV+ subscriber growth, and maintain the momentum of the Services business. Finally, they may be overstating their focus on environmental goals and the sustainability of iPhone's leadership position
Underlying
Apple Inc.

Apple designs, manufactures and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related services. The company's products include: iPhone; Mac; iPad; and wearables, home and accessories, which includes AirPods?, Apple TV?, Apple Watch?, Beats? products, HomePod?, iPod touch? and other Apple-branded and third-party accessories. The company's services include: digital content stores and streaming services; AppleCare, which includes AppleCare + (AC+) and the AppleCare Protection Plan; iCloud, which is the company's cloud service; licensing; and other services, which include Apple Arcade?, Apple Card?, Apple News+, and Apple Pay, a cashless payment service.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
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  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

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  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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Valens Research

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