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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2018 09 12

MTOR currently trades well below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 9.9x Uniform P/E (Fwd V/E′). At these valuations, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to compress from current 8% levels in 2017 to 7% in 2022, accompanied by immaterial Uniform Asset growth going forward. However, analysts have bullish expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to expand to 13% by 2019, accompanied by 7% Uniform Asset growth. In addition, analyst projections have grown consistently over the last year, indicating growing bullishness. This, coupled with management's confidence in their performance, proactivity and new contract, suggest MTOR can outperform bearish market expectations, warranting upside.

DGE:GBR Q4 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA expansion, but management has concerns about customer growth and their portfolio

HD Q2 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for continued Uniform ROA expansion, and management is confident in their value propositions, sales events, and their performance

MCD Q2 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for record-high Uniform ROA, but management has concerns about customer experience, growth rates, and price sensitivity


ASML:NLD, CAT, DLX, GE, HL, LMT, NOVN:CHE, TMO, TXN, UTX, X
Underlyings
ASML Holding N.V.

Caterpillar Inc.

Caterpillar is a manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines and diesel-electric locomotives. The company segments include: Construction Industries, which supports customers using machinery in infrastructure, forestry and building construction; Resource Industries, which supports customers using machinery in mining, heavy construction, quarry and aggregates, waste and material handling applications; Energy and Transportation, which supports customers in oil and gas, power generation, marine, rail and industrial applications, including Cat? machines; and Financial Products, which provides financing and related services.

Deluxe Corporation

Deluxe is engaged in providing payment solutions. The company's marketing solutions and other services provides products and services designed to meet its customers' sales and marketing needs, as well as various other service offerings. The company's forms, accessories and other products provides printed business forms, including deposit tickets, billing forms, work orders, job proposals, purchase orders, invoices and personnel forms, as well as computer forms compatible with accounting software packages commonly used by small businesses. The company also provides other customized products, including envelopes, office supplies, ink stamps, labels, deposit tickets, check registers and checkbook covers.

Diageo plc

Diageo is a premium drinks business based in the United Kingdom. Co. is engaged in producing and distributing spirits, beer and wine. Co.'s operations include producing, distilling, brewing, bottling, packaging, distributing, developing and marketing of a range of brands. The brands that it produces and distributes include Smirnoff vodka, Johnnie Walker scotch whisky, Baileys Original Irish Cream liqueur, Captain Morgan rum, J&B scotch whisky, Tanqueray gin and Guinness stout. In addition, Co. also has the distribution rights for the Jose Cuervo tequila brands in North America and other countries.

General Electric Company

General Electric is a technology industrial company. The company's segments include: Power, which serves power generation, industrial, government and other customers with products and services related to energy production; Renewable Energy, which engineers and manufactures energy equipment and projects, grid solutions and digital services; Aviation, which designs and produces commercial and military aircraft engines, digital components, electric power and mechanical aircraft systems; Healthcare, which provides healthcare technologies; and Capital, which provides financial products and services that build on the company's industry capabilities in aviation, power, renewables, healthcare and other activities.

Hecla Mining Company

Hecla Mining and its subsidiaries discover, acquire and develop mines and other mineral interests and produce and market concentrates, carbon material and dore containing silver, gold, lead and zinc. The company has five units: the Greens Creek, Lucky Friday, Casa Berardi, San Sebastian and Nevada Operations units. The company produces zinc, lead and bulk flotation concentrates at its Greens Creek unit and lead and zinc flotation concentrates at its Lucky Friday unit, each of which the company sells to custom smelters and metal traders on contract. The company also produces unrefined gold and silver bullion bars (dore), loaded carbon and precipitates at its Casa Berardi, San Sebastian and Nevada Operations units.

Home Depot Inc.

The Home Depot is a home improvement retailer. The company provides its customers an assortment of building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, and decor products and provides a number of services, including home improvement installation services and tool and equipment rental. The company also maintains a network of distribution and fulfillment centers, as well as a number of e-commerce websites. The company provides a number of programs for its Professional Customers to meet their particular needs, and for its Do-It-Yourself and Do-It-For-Me customers, the company provides a number of installation services. The company also provides tool and equipment rentals for its customers.

Lockheed Martin Corporation

Lockheed Martin is a security and aerospace company. The company has four segments: Aeronautics, which is engaged in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration, sustainment, support and upgrade of military aircraft; Missiles and Fire Control, which provides air and missile defense systems, logistics, fire control systems, and mission operations support; Rotary and Mission Systems, which provides design, manufacture, service and support for military and commercial helicopters, radar systems, and simulation and training services; Space, which researches, designs, develops, engineers and produces satellites, space transportation systems, and strategic, strike, and defensive systems.

McDonald's Corporation

McDonald's franchises and operates McDonald's restaurants. The company's menu includes hamburgers and cheeseburgers, Big Mac, Quarter Pounder with Cheese, Filet-O-Fish, several chicken sandwiches, Chicken McNuggets, wraps, fries, shakes, McFlurry desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, pies, soft drinks, coffee, McCafe beverages and other beverages. The company's restaurants in the United States and various international markets provide a full or limited breakfast menu. Breakfast offerings may include Egg McMuffin, Sausage McMuffin with Egg, McGriddles, biscuit and bagel sandwiches and hotcakes. The restaurants also sells a variety of other products during limited-time promotions

Meritor Inc.

Meritor is a global supplier of a range of integrated systems, modules and components to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and the aftermarket for the commercial vehicle, transportation and industrial sectors. The company serves commercial truck, trailer, military, bus and coach, construction, and other industrial OEMs and certain aftermarkets. The company's segments are: Commercial Truck, which supplies drivetrain systems and components, including axles, drivelines and braking and suspension systems; and Aftermarket, Industrial and Trailer, which supplies axles, brakes, drivelines, suspension parts and other replacement parts to commercial vehicle and industrial aftermarket customers.

Novan Inc

Novan is a clinical development-stage biotechnology company focused on utilizing nitric oxide's naturally occurring anti-viral, anti-bacterial, anti-fungal and immunomodulatory mechanisms of action to treat a range of diseases with unmet needs. The company's product candidates are: SB204, a once-daily, topical monotherapy for the treatment of acne vulgaris; SB206, a topical anti-viral gel for the treatment of viral skin infections; SB208, a topical broad-spectrum anti-fungal gel for the treatment of fungal infections of the skin and nails; and SB414, a topical cream-based product candidate for the treatment of inflammatory skin diseases.

Raytheon Technologies Corporation

United Technologies provides technology products and services to the building systems and aerospace industries. The company has four segments: Otis, which designs, manufactures, sells and installs passenger and freight elevators; Carrier, which provides heating, ventilating, air conditioning refrigeration, fire, security and building automation products; Pratt & Whitney, which supplies aircraft engines for the commercial, military, business jet and general aviation market; and Collins Aerospace Systems, which provides aerospace products and aftermarket service solutions for aircraft manufacturers, airlines, regional, business and general aviation markets, military, space and undersea operations.

Texas Instruments Incorporated

Texas Instruments designs and makes semiconductors that it sells to electronics designers and manufacturers. The company has two reportable segments: Analog and Embedded Processing. The company's analog semiconductors change signals, such as sound, temperature, pressure or images to a stream of digital data. The company's analog segment primary product lines includes: power, signal chain, and high volume. The company's embedded processors are designed to handle specific tasks and can be optimized for various combinations of performance, power and cost, depending on the application. The company's embedded processing segment primary product lines includes: connected microcontrollers and processors.

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.

Thermo Fisher Scientific is engaged in serving science. The company's segments include: Life Sciences Solutions, which provides reagents, instruments and consumables used in biological and medical research, discovery and production of new drugs and vaccines as well as diagnosis of disease; Analytical Instruments, which provides instruments, consumables, software and services that are used for a range of applications in the laboratory, on the production line and in the field; and Specialty Diagnostics, which provides diagnostic test kits, reagents, culture media, instruments and associated products for customers in healthcare, clinical, pharmaceutical, industrial, and food safety laboratories.

United States Steel Corporation

United States Steel is a steel producer of flat-rolled and tubular products with production operations in the United States and Europe. The company is also engaged in railroad services and real estate operations. The company's segments are: North American Flat-Rolled, which produces slabs, strip mill plates, sheets and tin mill products; U. S. Steel Europe, which produces and sells slabs, strip mill plate, sheet, tin mill products and spiral welded pipe, as well as heating radiators and refractory ceramic materials; and Tubular Products, which produces and sells electric resistance welded steel casing and tubing (known as oil country tubular goods), and standard and line pipe and mechanical tubing.

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