Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2020 12 01

CTSH has built an industry-leading asset-based consulting business over the past 15 years, seeing remarkably stable returns and steady investment in growth, through various
economic cycles and potentially impactful regulatory changes. However, the market is expecting both their ability to drive growth and sustain and improve profitability to severely erode going forward, with UAFRS-based (Uniform) ROA falling by half and growth slowing too.

While markets are overly pessimistic, management is aligned to focus on maintaining
margins to preserve their uniform ROA going forward, and their growth-based compensation will also drive them to not see growth decline as much as the market is expecting. This signals expectations for declines in ROA and growth are too negative. Also, during the most recent Q1 through Q3 (10/28) earnings calls, management showed growing confidence about their outlook. Management showed confidence across their calls about their growth outlook across their end markets, including Healthcare, Financial Services, and manufacturing and logistics. They also showed confidence around their overall outlook and about margins and cost structure improvement initiatives accelerating in H2 2019 and into 2020. Management was also confident about their Fit for Growth initiatives. Tellingly, in none of the calls did management generate any negative markers that would have caused concerns about hitting on, and exceeding, their reset outlook for the market.

Considering low market expectations, strong and stable ROA', favorable management alignment and solid positioning, and positive management outlook, there appears to be equity upside potential for CTSH.

CHWY Q2 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for material Uniform ROA expansion, but management may be concerned about sales, margins, and customers

TCOM Q2 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for continued Uniform ROA declines, but management is confident about ROI and market gains

CTAS Q1 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to reach all-time highs, but management may be concerned about revenue, growth, and the First Aid and Safety business

CTSH, CHWY, CTAS, TCOM, AZO, GME, GNRC, GRMN, HIL, LIVN, LPLA, NTAP, SNA, SSNC, WU, VZ
Underlyings
AutoZone Inc.

AutoZone is a retailer and a distributor of automotive replacement parts and accessories. The company operates stores in the United States, including Puerto Rico and Saint Thomas, Mexico, and Brazil. Each store carries a product line for cars, sport utility vehicles, vans and light trucks, including new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories and non-automotive products. In addition, the company has a commercial sales program that provides commercial credit and delivery of parts and other products to local, regional and national repair garages, dealers, service stations and public sector accounts. The company also sells the ALLDATA brand automotive diagnostic and repair software.

Chewy Inc. Class A

Chewy is a pure play e-commerce business geared toward pet products for dogs, cats, fish, birds, small pets, horses, and reptiles. The company serves its customers through its retail website, www.chewy.com, and its mobile applications and focuses on delivering exceptional customer service, a large selection of high-quality pet food, treats and supplies, price, convenience (including Chewy's Autoship subscription program), fast shipping, and hassle-free returns.

Cintas Corporation

Cintas is a provider of corporate identity uniforms through rental and sales programs, as well as a provider of related business services, including entrance mats, restroom cleaning services and supplies, carpet and tile cleaning services, first aid and safety services and fire protection products and services. The company's segments are Uniform Rental and Facility Services, which consists of the rental and servicing of uniforms and other garments, including flame resistant clothing, mats, mops and shop towels and other ancillary items; and The First Aid and Safety Services, which consists of first aid and safety products and services.

Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation Class A

Cognizant Technology Solutions is a services company, transforming customers' business, operating and technology models for the digital era. The company's services include digital services and solutions, consulting, application development, systems integration, application testing, application maintenance, infrastructure services and business process services. Additionally, the company develops, licenses, implements and supports proprietary and third-party software products and platforms. The company has organized its services and solutions into four practice areas: Digital Business, Digital Operations, Digital Systems and Technology and Consulting.

GameStop Corp. Class A

GameStop is a multichannel video game and licensed consumer products retailer. The company's products and services includes: New Video Game Hardware, which provides video game platforms from manufacturers; New Video Game Software, which provides new video game software for existing and certain prior generation consoles from manufacturers, including Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft; Video Game Accessories, which consist primarily of controllers, gaming headsets, virtual reality products, and memory cards; and Digital, which sells a variety of digital currency and has developed technology to sell downloadable content and full-game downloads in its stores and on its U.S. website.

Garmin Ltd.

Generac Holdings Inc.

Generac Holdings is a designer and manufacturer of a range of power generation equipment and other power products serving the residential, light commercial and industrial markets. The company's products include residential, commercial and industrial standby generators, as well as portable and mobile generators used in a range of applications. Other engine powered products that the company designs and manufactures include light towers which provide temporary lighting for various end markets; commercial and industrial mobile heaters and pumps used in the oil and gas, construction and other industrial markets; and a product line of outdoor power equipment for residential and commercial use.

Hill International

Hill International provides program management, project management, construction management and other consulting services primarily to the building, transportation, environmental, energy and industrial markets. The company's clients include the U.S. federal government, U.S. state and local governments, foreign governments and the private sector. The company operates in Project Management Group which provides construction management services to its clients. The company manages all phases of the construction process from concept through completion, including cost and budget controls, scheduling, estimating, expediting, inspection, contract administration and management of contractors, subcontractors and suppliers.

LivaNova Plc

LivaNova is a medical device company focused on the development and delivery of therapeutic solutions. Co. has three product franchises: Neuromodulation, which engaged in the design, development and marketing of neuromodulation therapy for the treatment of drug-resistant epilepsy and treatment resistant depression; Cardiac Surgery, which engaged in the development, production and sale of cardiovascular surgery products; and Cardiac Rhythm Management, which engaged in the development, manufacturing and marketing of products for the diagnosis, treatment, and management of heart rhythm disorders and heart failure.

LPL Financial Holdings Inc.

LPL Financial Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the retail financial advice market and independent broker-dealer. The company's product and solution access includes: Commission-Based Products, which include variable and fixed annuities, mutual funds, equities, and insurance, among others; Fee-Based Advisory Platforms and Support, which include wrap-fee programs, mutual fund asset allocation programs, financial planning services, and retirement plan consulting services; and Cash Sweep Programs, which manage their clients' cash balances through a money market sweep vehicle involving money market fund providers and insured sweep vehicles involving banks.

NetApp Inc.

NetApp is the data authority for the hybrid cloud. The company's product, services and solutions portfolio include: cloud data services, which include the NetApp Data Fabric, which manages, secures, and protects the data of its customers from on-premises to public to hybrid cloud; cloud infrastructure, which helps customers build cloud-architected data centers; storage systems and software, which enables customers to modernize their IT architectures with cloud-connected flash to free the resources necessary; and support services, which enable a portfolio of technical services including independent support services, support account managers, residency services, and managed services.

Snap-on Incorporated

Snap-on is a manufacturer and marketer of tools, equipment, diagnostics, repair information and systems solutions. Products and services include hand and power tools, tool storage, diagnostics software, handheld and PC-based diagnostic products, information and management systems, shop equipment and other solutions for vehicle dealerships and repair centers, as well as for customers in industries, such as aviation and aerospace, agriculture, construction, government and military, mining, natural resources, power generation and technical education. The company also provides financing programs designed to facilitate the sales of its products and support its franchise business.

SS&C Technologies Holdings Inc.

SS&C Technologies Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a provider of software products and software-enabled services that allow financial services providers to automate business processes and manage their information processing requirements. The company provides its solutions to clients principally within the institutional asset and wealth management, alternative investment management, financial advisory and financial institutions vertical markets. In addition, the company's clients include commercial lenders, real estate investment trusts, corporate treasury groups, insurance and pension funds, municipal finance groups and real estate property managers.

Trip.com Group Ltd. Sponsored ADR

Verizon Communications Inc.

Verizon Communications is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides communications, information and entertainment products and services to consumers, businesses and governmental agencies. The company has two reportable segments, Verizon Consumer Group (Consumer) and Verizon Business Group (Business). The company's Consumer segment provides consumer-focused wireless and wireline communications services and products under the Verizon brand and through wholesale and other arrangements. The company's Business segment provides, among others, wireless and wireline communications services and products, video and data services, corporate networking solutions, security and managed network services.

Western Union Company

Western Union is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in money movement and payment services, providing people and businesses with ways to send money and make payments around the world. The company's segments are: Consumer-to-Consumer, which is focused on individual money transfers from one consumer to another; and Business Solutions, in which the company facilitates payment and foreign exchange solutions, primarily cross-border, cross-currency transactions, for small and medium size enterprises and other organizations and individuals. The company's remaining businesses and services include its electronic-based and cash-based bill payment services.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

Analysts
Valens Research

Other Reports on these Companies
Other Reports from Valens Research

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch