AVB - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 01 14
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (AVB:USA) currently trades above corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 47.1x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market has bullish expectations for the firm, but management may have concerns about the sustainability of rental income, occupant turnover in San Francisco, and the performance of their legacy marketsSpecifically, management is confident apartments are less occupied due in part to young age cohorts moving back home. Furthermore, they may lack confidence in their ability to sustain townhome rent increases, finalize asset sale proceeds by year-end, and grow in their expansion markets. Moreover, they may lack confidence in their ability to fund their share repurchase program and mitigate the impact of high turnover and move-outs in San Francisco. In addition, management may be concerned about the performance of their legacy markets and they may be overstating the potential of their Denver suburban assets
AvalonBay Communities is a real estate investment trust. The company develops, redevelops, acquires, owns and operates multifamily communities primarily in New England, the New York/New Jersey metro area, the Mid-Atlantic, the Pacific Northwest, and Northern and Southern California. The company owns or holds a direct or indirect ownership interest in: operating apartment communities containing apartment homes in various states and the District of Columbia; communities under development; and rights to develop an additional communities.
In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:
- GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
- Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
- Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
- Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available
We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.
- Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
- Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
- Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
- The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming
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